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Old 06-15-2007, 02:41 PM   #4
Livinginthe past
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Default Re: Great News for our Turnover Woes

Im trying to think of logical reasons why this trend should exist.

Maybe teams with a huge negative turnover tend to play more conservative the year after in order to limit turnovers - maybe they more aggressive on defense..... who knows?

One of the first things that springs to mind would be having a rookie QB going into his 2nd year in the year the results suddenly improve.

I'd like to hear Kirwans theory on why the trend exists because after a little more digging there is a very erratic nature to the results.

We'll start in 2003 with the 4 worst teams in terms of turnover margin.

29. Chargers -11
30. Cardinals -13
31. Bills -16
32. Giants -16

In 2004 all teams show a remarkable improvement - 2 teams improve their differential by 26 turnovers! (I think thats statistically crazy)

3. Chargers +15 (+26)
7. Bills +10 (+26)
15. Giants +4 (+20)
18. Cardinals +1 (+14)

In 2005 only 1 team continues to improve (Giants) while the other 3 suffer a pretty large relapse, especially the Chargers.

6. Giants +11 (+7)
13. Bills +4 (-6)
25. Chargers -8 (-23)
30. Cardinals -11 (-12)

In 2006, the only team to show consistent improvement over the previous 2 years (Giants) have a sudden dropoff in production.
Chargers massively improve again, as do the Cardinals and Buffalo continue their downward trend from the last 2 years.

3. Chargers +13 (+21)
12. Cardinals +3 (+14)
19. Giants +0 (-11)
23. Bills -5 (-9)

I can see the trend Kirwan describes for the bottom teams in 2003, but if you follow their progress through the following 3 years no two teams seem to share the same pattern.

The Giants steadily improve for 2 years then have a sudden drop off.

Buffalo have a great improvement in 2004 but the next 2 years are spent going backwards.

Arizona are all over the place between 'okay' and very bad.

San Diego are even more erratic going from truly awful, to excellent, to awful and then back to excellent again.

I may take a look at the top 4 teams over the last 4 years and see if they show a more consistent pattern.
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