View Single Post
Old 06-16-2007, 04:39 AM   #9
theropodx
Draft Prospect
 

Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 61
Member Number: 1906
Thanks: 0
Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts
Default Re: Great News for our Turnover Woes

This is true--we should expect things to turn around. Statistics play a far larger roll in player's and team's success than many people understand.

My example is flipping a coin: statistics say you'll get heads 50% of the time. People interpret that to mean you'll tend to get heads/tails/heads/tails... with maybe a double or triple run of either heads or tails from time to time. Actually, you're likely to get a run of 5, or ten in a row! In fact, you'll only see the 50% average when you flip for a large sample like 100 times or more. (Easy experiment to try if you disagree.)

I don't doubt there are other factors at work here. Teams likely work on the problems they have the year before. Certain players might be more to blame for a string of fumbles, and that player doesn't get the ball the next season, etc.

Still, if ONLY statistics were at play (again, take the coin flip as an example), you're likely to get RUNS of good (heads) and bad (tails).
theropodx is offline   Reply With Quote