by no means am i an expert (which probably explains why i had Mine That Bird last year, for nothing more than sentementality and rooting for the local ride and underdog trainer).
but even for the non-horse fan who loves to gamble, you can turn the kentucky derby into a bit of fun. i like to hedge my bets, where i can possibly win big, and insure that i dont lose too much. making a sound bet, really only takes a few minutes of research.
my dad told me to pick him some horses, so here are my bets (when all else fails i like a horse who can fly like a "bird" or is money (ice)-
The Derby field in post-position order with odds: Lookin At Lucky, 3-1; Ice Box, 10-1; Noble's Promise, 12-1; Super Saver, 15-1; Line of David, 30-1; Stately Victor, 30-1; American Lion, 30-1; Dean's Kitten, 50-1; Make Music for Me, 50-1; Paddy O'Prado, 20-1; Devil May Care, 10-1; Conveyance, 12-1; Jackson Bend, 15-1; Mission Impazible, 20-1; Discreetly Mine, 30-1; Awesome Act, 10-1; Dublin, 12-1; Backtalk, 50-1; Homeboykris, 50-1; and Sidney's Candy, 5-1.
Anytime I ever play the ponies, I always go with horse #4 (who wears the black and gold cloth, and is my lucky number) and I feel has the shortest distance with the best angle going into the 1st turn. This year is Super Saver who is ridden by Calvin Borel who won the first 2 legs of the triple crown last year with Mine That Bird and Rachel Alexandra (and also won the derby in 2007).
Mission Impazible starts from gate #14 (my next favorite lucky number). This horse is owned by Terry Bradshaw. (knowing his luck with ranching and raising animals will probably flop, but gotta root for Terry).
Lookin At Lucky was made the early 3-1 favorite for the Kentucky Derby and Sidney's Candy was the second choice Wednesday in a full field of 20 horses. Neither, however, drew the most favorable post position for Saturday's race.
Trained by three-time Derby winner Bob Baffert and ridden by Garrett Gomez, Lookin At Lucky drew the No. 1 post — generally considered a disadvantage because horses charging into the first turn of the 1 1-4 mile track tend to jam the inside
Sidney's Candy, 5-1, didn't fare much better, drawing the outside No. 20 post — making for the widest of all trips around Churchill Downs..
I wouldnt even mess with the favorites unless throwing one in for a trifecta.
I say balance gut/luck/superstition with brain. USA Today always prints the horses records on Friday. If a horse has 7 races with 4 wins, a place and a show, they are probably pretty good. If they have 5 races with just 1 place and 1 show, chances are they suck. Couple that info with their starting position and you can make a fairly reasonable bet.