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Old 04-30-2010, 12:21 AM   #1
tony hipchest
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Default 2010 Kentucky Derby

by no means am i an expert (which probably explains why i had Mine That Bird last year, for nothing more than sentementality and rooting for the local ride and underdog trainer).

but even for the non-horse fan who loves to gamble, you can turn the kentucky derby into a bit of fun. i like to hedge my bets, where i can possibly win big, and insure that i dont lose too much. making a sound bet, really only takes a few minutes of research.

my dad told me to pick him some horses, so here are my bets (when all else fails i like a horse who can fly like a "bird" or is money (ice)-

Quote:
The Derby field in post-position order with odds: Lookin At Lucky, 3-1; Ice Box, 10-1; Noble's Promise, 12-1; Super Saver, 15-1; Line of David, 30-1; Stately Victor, 30-1; American Lion, 30-1; Dean's Kitten, 50-1; Make Music for Me, 50-1; Paddy O'Prado, 20-1; Devil May Care, 10-1; Conveyance, 12-1; Jackson Bend, 15-1; Mission Impazible, 20-1; Discreetly Mine, 30-1; Awesome Act, 10-1; Dublin, 12-1; Backtalk, 50-1; Homeboykris, 50-1; and Sidney's Candy, 5-1.
Anytime I ever play the ponies, I always go with horse #4 (who wears the black and gold cloth, and is my lucky number) and I feel has the shortest distance with the best angle going into the 1st turn. This year is Super Saver who is ridden by Calvin Borel who won the first 2 legs of the triple crown last year with Mine That Bird and Rachel Alexandra (and also won the derby in 2007).

Mission Impazible starts from gate #14 (my next favorite lucky number). This horse is owned by Terry Bradshaw. (knowing his luck with ranching and raising animals will probably flop, but gotta root for Terry).


Quote:
Lookin At Lucky was made the early 3-1 favorite for the Kentucky Derby and Sidney's Candy was the second choice Wednesday in a full field of 20 horses. Neither, however, drew the most favorable post position for Saturday's race.
Trained by three-time Derby winner Bob Baffert and ridden by Garrett Gomez, Lookin At Lucky drew the No. 1 post — generally considered a disadvantage because horses charging into the first turn of the 1 1-4 mile track tend to jam the inside

Sidney's Candy, 5-1, didn't fare much better, drawing the outside No. 20 post — making for the widest of all trips around Churchill Downs..
I wouldnt even mess with the favorites unless throwing one in for a trifecta.

I say balance gut/luck/superstition with brain. USA Today always prints the horses records on Friday. If a horse has 7 races with 4 wins, a place and a show, they are probably pretty good. If they have 5 races with just 1 place and 1 show, chances are they suck. Couple that info with their starting position and you can make a fairly reasonable bet.
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