BYRON: Let's Talk Negative Plays by the Numbers

[desertsteel]

Originally Posted by FanSince72

Stats only tell you what happened in the past -- they don't predict the future.

Here's a stat for everyone: Leftwich completed 7 passes last night, WHICH EQUALS THE AMOUNT OF PASS ATTEMPTS HE'S HAD IN THE TWO YEARS PRIOR TO LAST NIGHT'S GAME!

So how in God's name can anyone apply statistics to a guy who has thrown all of seven passes in two years and has thrown a grand total of fifty passes in a Steeler uniform (including last night's game) since 2008? The only consistent set of numbers that could possibly apply to Leftwich are at least five years old and those numbers are supposed to mean something?

Well, let me clue you in: the concerns with negative plays center around his long windup and slow delivery. People say it makes him prone for turnovers just based on how it looks. The reason past stats are important are because his throwing motion has NOT CHANGED. And he was NEVER more mobile than he is now. So for that reason the past is a good predictor of the future.

[desertsteel]

Originally Posted by jiminpa

I'm more concerned with his fragility than his delivery.

And to this I wholeheartedly agree. If it weren't for proneness to injury he may still be a starter somewhere today. And no one should question his leadership or toughness. He's got a stellar resume' in those departments. He played college ball in my hometown and his leadership and toughness were very evident even then.

[FanSince72]

Originally Posted by desertsteel

Well, let me clue you in: the concerns with negative plays center around his long windup and slow delivery. People say it makes him prone for turnovers just based on how it looks. The reason past stats are important are because his throwing motion has NOT CHANGED. And he was NEVER more mobile than he is now. So for that reason the past is a good predictor of the future.

Want to know what I see?

I see a guy who has had a mediocre career and has spent much of that career riding the pine for one team or another who now has an opportunity to validate his existence. He's not being asked to step in for a starter who has a sore finger and will be back, good as new next week. Instead he's stepping into a situation where two of the next three games we play will likely play a major role if not outright decide our playoff future and it's a pretty good bet that he'll likely play in all of them.

For a person who has spent the last few years watching other people be successful, he probably can't wait to seize this opportunity to have his career actually mean something. When he was interviewed after the Cheif's game, he said all of the usual "rah-rah" stuff about being ready and being the "next man up". But at the very end of that interview he was asked if he'll be ready and he answered like a kid who was getting his first big shot at something and he promised that he would be ready and that he won't be rusty.

This guy is pumped and he's ready to redeem himself and his career and to take advantage of an opportunity to make all of the disappointing years of waiting seem worth it and I hope he gets the chance because I think he'll make the most of it.

There isn't a statistic in the world that can measure that sort of thing.

That's what I see.

[steelfury02]

Originally Posted by FanSince72

Want to know what I see?

I see a guy who has had a mediocre career and has spent much of that career riding the pine for one team or another who now has an opportunity to validate his existence. He's not being asked to step in for a starter who has a sore finger and will be back, good as new next week. Instead he's stepping into a situation where two of the next three games we play will likely play a major role if not outright decide our playoff future and it's a pretty good bet that he'll likely play in all of them.

For a person who has spent the last few years watching other people be successful, he probably can't wait to seize this opportunity to have his career actually mean something. When he was interviewed after the Cheif's game, he said all of the usual "rah-rah" stuff about being ready and being the "next man up". But at the very end of that interview he was asked if he'll be ready and he answered like a kid who was getting his first big shot at something and he promised that he would be ready and that he won't be rusty.

This guy is pumped and he's ready to redeem himself and his career and to take advantage of an opportunity to make all of the disappointing years of waiting seem worth it and I hope he gets the chance because I think he'll make the most of it.

There isn't a statistic in the world that can measure that sort of thing.

That's what I see.

Fan, I hope this turns out the way we all want it to turn out - Lefty taking the car for a spin while Ben is out, getting at least 2 out of the next 3. I have faith that there is no possible way we lose to Baltimore both times, 2 seasons in a row.

[Atlanta Dan]

Opening line before the Monday night game and Ben getting hurt was Steelers giving 4 & 1/2 to Ravens - consensus line currently is Baltimore -2 & 1/2 - a touchdown swing - I guess that is a negative number

http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/las-vegas/

[FanSince72]

Originally Posted by Atlanta Dan

Opening line before the Monday night game and Ben getting hurt was Steelers giving 4 & 1/2 to Ravens - consensus line currently is Baltimore -2 & 1/2 - a touchdown swing - I guess that is a negative

http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/las-vegas/

Or you could look at it as "Motivation".

Like I've said before, you can be positive or negative and since neither one costs anything you're free to choose either one.

I'll go with positive.

[Atlanta Dan]

Originally Posted by FanSince72

Or you could look at it as "Motivation".

Like I've said before, you can be positive or negative and since neither one costs anything you're free to choose either one.

I'll go with positive.

Positive is a better attitude than negative but would you take the Steelers getting 2&1/2 for serious $$$$?

[FanSince72]

Originally Posted by Atlanta Dan

Positive is a better attitude than negative but would you take the Steelers getting 2&1/2 for serious $$$$?

I never bet for or against my Steelers.

And I'm not generally a superstitious person...


...but still...

[Atlanta Dan]

Originally Posted by FanSince72

I never bet for or against my Steelers.

And I'm not generally a superstitious person...


...but still...

During my gambling days I would never bet against the Steelers even when I had a high degree of confidence there was money to be made betting against them

[desertsteel]

Originally Posted by FanSince72

Want to know what I see?

I see a guy who has had a mediocre career and has spent much of that career riding the pine for one team or another who now has an opportunity to validate his existence. He's not being asked to step in for a starter who has a sore finger and will be back, good as new next week. Instead he's stepping into a situation where two of the next three games we play will likely play a major role if not outright decide our playoff future and it's a pretty good bet that he'll likely play in all of them.

For a person who has spent the last few years watching other people be successful, he probably can't wait to seize this opportunity to have his career actually mean something. When he was interviewed after the Cheif's game, he said all of the usual "rah-rah" stuff about being ready and being the "next man up". But at the very end of that interview he was asked if he'll be ready and he answered like a kid who was getting his first big shot at something and he promised that he would be ready and that he won't be rusty.

This guy is pumped and he's ready to redeem himself and his career and to take advantage of an opportunity to make all of the disappointing years of waiting seem worth it and I hope he gets the chance because I think he'll make the most of it.

There isn't a statistic in the world that can measure that sort of thing.

That's what I see.

To all of that I agree. I've followed Byron since he was a freshman in college and he is everything you just described to the core.