Why register with the Steelers Fever Forums?
 • Intelligent and friendly discussions.
 • It's free and it's quick. Always.
 • Enter events in the forums calendar.
 • Very user friendly software.
 • Exclusive contests and giveaways.

 Donate to Steelers Fever, Click here
 Our 2014 Goal: $450.00 - To Date: $450.00 (100.00%)
 Home | Forums | Editorials | Shop | Tickets | Downloads | Contact Pittsburgh Steelers Forum Feed Not Just Fans. Hardcore Fans.

Go Back   Steelers Fever Forums > Steelers Football > Pittsburgh Steelers


Steelers Fever Fan Shop

Doc's Sports Get FREE NFL Picks and College Football picks as well as Football Lines like live NFL Lines and updated NFL Power Rankings all at Doc's Sports Service.

Steelers

LOL

Reply
 
Thread Tools
Old 01-22-2013, 09:36 PM   #11
desertsteel
Assistant Coach
 
desertsteel's Avatar
 

Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Arizona
Posts: 1,295
Gender: Male
Member Number: 915
Thanks: 227
Thanked 621 Times in 324 Posts
Default Re: New Angle on Analyzing the Steelers

Good stuff!

I once prepped the Professor of Statistics from Northwestern University for a trial on credit card fraud. I COULD NOT get him to understand how overlimit fees were billed LOL. I guess we each have our gifts.
desertsteel is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-22-2013, 09:44 PM   #12
harrison'samonster
Living Legend
 
harrison'samonster's Avatar
 

Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: Youngstown, OH
Posts: 7,953
Gender: Male
Member Number: 17630
Thanks: 63,713
Thanked 10,709 Times in 4,272 Posts
My Mood: Yeehaw
Default Re: New Angle on Analyzing the Steelers

Quote:
Originally Posted by Riddle_Of_Steel View Post
Great article anyhow-- I just like to poke holes in statistical studies like this, because I am convinced that you cannot determine outcomes from simple statistical correlation.

If you could, don't you think the owners would be more interested? Imagine how much the "winning algorithmn" would be worth to the right people...?
great point. Statistics are very usefull, but they can't account for things like John Elway's little helicopter move in the SB. Or Charlie Batch moving the offense against the Ravens to beat them at home this year.
__________________
And when did you begin to believe that you are Jesus?
harrison'samonster is online now   Reply With Quote
The Following User Says Thank You to harrison'samonster For This Useful Post:
thethinkingguy (01-23-2013)
Old 01-22-2013, 10:03 PM   #13
thethinkingguy
Water Boy
 

Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 8
Gender: Male
Member Number: 24743
Thanks: 3
Thanked 8 Times in 5 Posts
Default Re: New Angle on Analyzing the Steelers

Great comments, all, and thank you for the compliments. And Riddle of Steel, you can never go wrong with a Conan reference in my book...

The article is not trying, and the model is not predicting, that rushing the ball is useless. What the model notes is that passing the ball well is more conducive to winning than is running the ball well over the last three years. I think you all know this intuitively to be true, but I'm just trying to show it statistically.

Surely running the ball is valuable, it just doesn't predict wins as well as passing does, that's the bottom line. The new NFL analytical way of thinking is as follows: Winning teams that run the ball well do so mainly because they're passing well. They're running once the pass is established as a lethal means of attack.

If you're into this kind of stuff, I encourage you to follow me and my partner on Twitter at @the_thinkingguy and @the_drinkingguy. We'll tweet out (and I'll try to remember to come back here and post) when a new article is posted to www.steelcitystats.com

As far as the question on San Diego...I think you meant the 2010 Chargers, right? The model predicts they should have won 10.5 games. They went 9 and 7. The standard deviation for wins is 2.5 in the league, so the model accurately predicts this.

The 2011 Chargers weren't the dominant ones in scoring offense and scoring defense. But, if you're curious, the model predicts they won 7.75 games. They won 8.
thethinkingguy is offline   Reply With Quote
The Following User Says Thank You to thethinkingguy For This Useful Post:
harrison'samonster (01-22-2013)
Old 01-22-2013, 11:55 PM   #14
Fire Arians
Anti-Spammer Mod
 
Fire Arians's Avatar
 

Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: Hawaii
Posts: 11,074
Member Number: 16570
Thanks: 2,063
Thanked 8,004 Times in 3,348 Posts
My Mood: Yeehaw
Default Re: New Angle on Analyzing the Steelers

good read, for the most part can you say turnovers killed the season? ranking 28th in fumbles definitely doesn't help the winning cause
__________________
Tomlin's record on the road vs. sub .500 teams in the last 3 years: 3-9
Fire Arians is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-23-2013, 08:14 AM   #15
VaDave
Team Owner
 

Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Richmond, Va
Posts: 2,581
Gender: Male
Member Number: 479
Thanks: 900
Thanked 1,908 Times in 1,052 Posts
Default Re: New Angle on Analyzing the Steelers

Quote:
Originally Posted by Riddle_Of_Steel View Post
So....being the usual skeptic that I am....I am wondering where the 2011 Chargers, who finished with the #1 offense and #1 defense, yet finished 8-8 fit into this analysis.

How do those two losses to JAX in 2007 happen? David Gerrard was terrible in both games, if memory serves, and we lost because MJD and FT ran for a combned 250+ yards on us in the first game, and ran well against us in the wildcard game as well. According to the statistical analysis, the running game is NOT a factor in wins-- only passer ratng and turnovers.
That anomoly is called Zone Blocking. We had no answer for it. We still don't defend it well. That may be the only glaring deficiency of the LeBeau defensive system. In all fairness Jacksonville ran it to perfection that year.

You may remember in that playoff game, the Jaguar's victory was greatly added by a missed holding call.
VaDave is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-23-2013, 06:34 PM   #16
Riddle_Of_Steel
Head Coach
 
Riddle_Of_Steel's Avatar
 

Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Escondido, CA
Posts: 1,951
Gender: Male
Member Number: 13727
Thanks: 2
Thanked 876 Times in 438 Posts
Default Re: New Angle on Analyzing the Steelers

Quote:
Originally Posted by VaDave View Post
That anomoly is called Zone Blocking. We had no answer for it. We still don't defend it well. That may be the only glaring deficiency of the LeBeau defensive system. In all fairness Jacksonville ran it to perfection that year.
Unfortunately true. We can't seem to nail down a ZBL on our own Oline (ala Kemoeatu), but other teams have done so with success against us at times.

Quote:
Originally Posted by VaDave View Post
You may remember in that playoff game, the Jaguar's victory was greatly added by a missed holding call.
That was a bad memory I was trying to forget...the 4th down that sunk our 2007 season.
__________________
GO STEELERS!!
"On the S-2-7 train"
Riddle_Of_Steel is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-23-2013, 06:41 PM   #17
Riddle_Of_Steel
Head Coach
 
Riddle_Of_Steel's Avatar
 

Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Escondido, CA
Posts: 1,951
Gender: Male
Member Number: 13727
Thanks: 2
Thanked 876 Times in 438 Posts
Default Re: New Angle on Analyzing the Steelers

Quote:
Originally Posted by thethinkingguy View Post
Great comments, all, and thank you for the compliments. And Riddle of Steel, you can never go wrong with a Conan reference in my book...
If the "Crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and to hear the lamentation of their women" part were shorter-- I would have taken that as a pseudonym LOL.

Quote:
Originally Posted by thethinkingguy View Post
The article is not trying, and the model is not predicting, that rushing the ball is useless. What the model notes is that passing the ball well is more conducive to winning than is running the ball well over the last three years. I think you all know this intuitively to be true, but I'm just trying to show it statistically.

Surely running the ball is valuable, it just doesn't predict wins as well as passing does, that's the bottom line. The new NFL analytical way of thinking is as follows: Winning teams that run the ball well do so mainly because they're passing well. They're running once the pass is established as a lethal means of attack.
Fair enough. I have to keep in mind too that statistics show overall trends, and that exceptions, while they do occur, get flattened out over time and their impact is minimalized when you factor everything in.

Quote:
Originally Posted by thethinkingguy View Post
If you're into this kind of stuff, I encourage you to follow me and my partner on Twitter at @the_thinkingguy and @the_drinkingguy. We'll tweet out (and I'll try to remember to come back here and post) when a new article is posted to www.steelcitystats.com
I was into statistics when I was majoring in psych, but have since moved on to IP network engineering. (my trade today). I forgot nearly everything I learned in college statistics-- although when someone lays it out as well as you did-- it is not hard to follow, even for a laymen.

Quote:
Originally Posted by thethinkingguy View Post
As far as the question on San Diego...I think you meant the 2010 Chargers, right? The model predicts they should have won 10.5 games. They went 9 and 7. The standard deviation for wins is 2.5 in the league, so the model accurately predicts this.
Not bad at all. Keep the good information flowing....
__________________
GO STEELERS!!
"On the S-2-7 train"
Riddle_Of_Steel is offline   Reply With Quote
The Following User Says Thank You to Riddle_Of_Steel For This Useful Post:
thethinkingguy (01-23-2013)
Old 01-23-2013, 07:45 PM   #18
NSMaster56
Living Legend
 
NSMaster56's Avatar
 

Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: Pac NW
Posts: 3,439
Gender: Male
Member Number: 23979
Thanks: 9,635
Thanked 4,787 Times in 2,110 Posts
Default Re: New Angle on Analyzing the Steelers

Quote:
Originally Posted by VaDave View Post
You may remember in that playoff game, the Jaguar's victory was greatly added by a missed holding call.
Big Ben pick six (in addition to a couple other porous picks) and KR TD doomed the game more than any amount of MJD or bad calls.
NSMaster56 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-23-2013, 10:16 PM   #19
thethinkingguy
Water Boy
 

Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 8
Gender: Male
Member Number: 24743
Thanks: 3
Thanked 8 Times in 5 Posts
Default Re: New Angle on Analyzing the Steelers

Quote:
If the "Crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and to hear the lamentation of their women" part were shorter-- I would have taken that as a pseudonym LOL.
I love it. "Crom laughs at your four winds. He laughs from his mountain."


Quote:
Fair enough. I have to keep in mind too that statistics show overall trends, and that exceptions, while they do occur, get flattened out over time and their impact is minimalized when you factor everything in.

Yes, exactly. Remember, statistics can only DISPROVE theories or myths. Statistics prove nothing. But, that doesn't preclude them from being useful. I find them to be incredibly helpful.

I'm amazed by the lucidity in this forum. If anybody would like some data ran, please let me know and I'm happy to help. I'll be tweeting out our next article when it's ready and I'll post here as well.
thethinkingguy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-24-2013, 02:05 PM   #20
austinfrench76
Head Coach
 
austinfrench76's Avatar
 

Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 1,770
Member Number: 3516
Thanks: 941
Thanked 651 Times in 395 Posts
Default Re: New Angle on Analyzing the Steelers

Good read buddy! Thanks.
austinfrench76 is online now   Reply With Quote
Reply

Bookmarks

Tags
analytics, steelers analytics, steelers statistics


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 05:03 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.4
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Shoutbox provided by vBShout v6.2.1 (Lite) - vBulletin Mods & Addons Copyright © 2014 DragonByte Technologies Ltd.
User Alert System provided by Advanced User Tagging v3.0.8 (Lite) - vBulletin Mods & Addons Copyright © 2014 DragonByte Technologies Ltd. Runs best on HiVelocity Hosting.
Navbar with Avatar by Motorradforum
no new posts