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Old 03-26-2013, 09:47 PM   #1
thethinkingguy
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Default Our introduction to Expected Points - new article at Steel City Stats

Fellow fans, the Drinking Guy and I have published our next article, which is an introduction to Expected Points - an interesting concept - and how the Steelers can benefit from its adoption.

Steel City Stats

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Old 03-26-2013, 10:23 PM   #2
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Default Re: Our introduction to Expected Points - new article at Steel City Stats

Holy shit. Good work. I'll leave something more intelligent tomorrow as I only glanced over it tonight, but wow, good work.
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Old 03-26-2013, 10:56 PM   #3
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Default Re: Our introduction to Expected Points - new article at Steel City Stats

I think your names "The Thinking Guy" and "The Drinking Guy" are pretty clever also...
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Old 03-27-2013, 08:19 AM   #4
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Default Re: Our introduction to Expected Points - new article at Steel City Stats

Interesting article, but here is the question I have pertaining to expected points:

How many expected points for the Steelers passing game next season?

The Steelers offense ranked #21 in offense last season. 27 passing TDs. Mike Wallace had 8 of those and Heath Miller also had 8. Wallace is gone and who knows when Heath will be back.

Who is going to make up for the TDs that are not going to be scored by Wallace and Miller? Sanders had 1 last season and Brown had 5. Brown, although he had over 1,000 yards in 2011, only had 2 TD catches. Also, our receivers are not going to have the benefit of Wallace being doubled on occasion.

So where does that leave the Steelers in terms of TDs from the passing game this coming season? And what do the Steelers do about it?
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Old 03-27-2013, 08:44 AM   #5
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Default Re: Our introduction to Expected Points - new article at Steel City Stats

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Originally Posted by JackH View Post
Interesting article, but here is the question I have pertaining to expected points:

How many expected points for the Steelers passing game next season?

The Steelers offense ranked #21 in offense last season. 27 passing TDs. Mike Wallace had 8 of those and Heath Miller also had 8. Wallace is gone and who knows when Heath will be back.

Who is going to make up for the TDs that are not going to be scored by Wallace and Miller? Sanders had 1 last season and Brown had 5. Brown, although he had over 1,000 yards in 2011, only had 2 TD catches. Also, our receivers are not going to have the benefit of Wallace being doubled on occasion.

So where does that leave the Steelers in terms of TDs from the passing game this coming season? And what do the Steelers do about it?
Well for starters keeping Ben off the ground in the red zone would help, and JC has the best hands on the team but is underused major. Hopefully someone wakes the hell up and use our talent correctly
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Old 03-27-2013, 09:09 AM   #6
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Default Re: Our introduction to Expected Points - new article at Steel City Stats

nice post again. Thanks! Personally I'd take the $5. Doesn't it all come down to execution. Even if you go for the "guaranteed" it all comes down to whether or not the players make the plays.
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Old 03-27-2013, 09:53 AM   #7
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Default Re: Our introduction to Expected Points - new article at Steel City Stats

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Well for starters keeping Ben off the ground in the red zone would help, and JC has the best hands on the team but is underused major. Hopefully someone wakes the hell up and use our talent correctly
Do you know how many times Ben was sacked in the red zone? That would be an interesting stat. I'm not going to take the time to figure it out if you already know the answer.

Of course, there are two sides to that coin, keeping Ben off the ground -- the OL doing a decent job and the receivers getting open, otherwise Ben is going to hold onto the ball and try to make a play.

Yeah, I like JC's hands, but he doesn't seem to get much separation. Then you got the guys like former Steeler Wallace, Brown, and perhaps former Steeler Sanders who got separation but who couldn't hang onto the ball. Remember that play in the second game against the Ravens when Sanders caught the ball wide open in the middle of the field and looked like he was headed for paydirt? But no, he coughed it up, or he would likely have had 2 TD catches for the season instead of one. The only guy who could get separation and hang onto the ball was Heath.
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