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Old 03-24-2014, 03:56 PM   #11
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Default Re: Mark Cuban: "Greedy " NFL Is 10 Years From Implosion

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Originally Posted by NSMaster56 View Post
The NBA won't implode so long as the owners hold such a distinct advantage over the players union and continue to make money hand over fist.

The biggest threats to the NFL's current model are injuries/insurance (concussion lawsuits, life insurance/stipends) and the dissolution of its developmental system.

Recent lawsuits have forced the NCAA to stop production of video games and certain merchandise sales. Further lawsuits could change the 'student athlete' definition (paid collegiates or a minor league system).

If the NFL had to finance its own minor league systems (like MLB and the NBA) then that would affect its 'bottom line'. A better player compensation plan would, too.

Cuban's comments only hold true in an over saturated market, but the NFL's season is so short and well-marketed (weekly events culminating in the playoffs) that their popularity shouldn't wane unless even more AFL-like rules affect public perception... but that seems unlikely (on a large scale).

As for leagues more likely to implode, the NHL has to be #1 on any list. It has two work stoppages in 20 years and it doesn't make nearly as much money as any of the other 'big three' leagues.
Yep.

If an insurance company has to pay a billion dollar lawsuit to former college players, you know that they will stop covering those players.

If those players aren't covered, the university would have to shut down its football programs.

If those football programs disappear, there is no development... and, essentially, no influx of talent into the NFL.

If there is no talent, the NFL goes away.
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Old 03-24-2014, 05:43 PM   #12
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Default Re: Mark Cuban: "Greedy " NFL Is 10 Years From Implosion

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The NHL has been growing in popularity for a decade. The MLB has been steadily decreasing now for a long time.
Right, but 'popularity' does not equate or translate to 'revenue' or 'operating income'.

Behold the 2013 breakdown.

Compare it with the NBA.

The bottom half of the NHL is scraping by (relatively speaking). Comparatively, the NBA's worst franchises are still worth more than 1/2 of the NHL's (and only a few are even losing money). You don't have to imagine very hard how a comparison to the NFL looks. (MLB skates by thanks to 'revenue sharing' and sweetheart TV deals).

The NHL has the weakest TV deal(s) and least amount of popularity in the states. In terms of 'sustainable business models', theirs is almost certainly the weakest. Their fundamentals are fairly sound, they just can't operate on the same level as the more popular sports and the stats support it.
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Old 03-24-2014, 05:49 PM   #13
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Default Re: Mark Cuban: "Greedy " NFL Is 10 Years From Implosion

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Yep.

If an insurance company has to pay a billion dollar lawsuit to former college players, you know that they will stop covering those players.
Good lawd, I didn't even think about that.

Right now nearly every injury-related lawsuit is filed against the NFL. Most NCAA lawsuits are about 'rights' (like the Ed O'Bannon merchandise/likeness one).

If a class action suit (heck, even enough individual cases) against the NCAA [for injuries] could be filed that would nuke the whole system!

I don't think it's likely at this point since more college-related cases are about the dollars whereas pros are about dollars + health + 'civics', but there's a whole other can of worms that potentially awaits the NCAA... unless they've covered their bases, which would not be surprising.
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Old 03-24-2014, 05:53 PM   #14
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Default Re: Mark Cuban: "Greedy " NFL Is 10 Years From Implosion

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Good lawd, I didn't even think about that.

Right now nearly every injury-related lawsuit is filed against the NFL. Most NCAA lawsuits are about 'rights' (like the Ed O'Bannon merchandise/likeness one).

If a class action suit (heck, even enough individual cases) against the NCAA [for injuries] could be filed that would nuke the whole system!

I don't think it's likely at this point since more college-related cases are about the dollars whereas pros are about dollars + health + 'civics', but there's a whole other can of worms that potentially awaits the NCAA... unless they've covered their bases, which would not be surprising.
Exactly.
It's best not to think about it.
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Old 03-24-2014, 05:54 PM   #15
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Default Re: Mark Cuban: "Greedy " NFL Is 10 Years From Implosion

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I guess I didn't take "implode" literally as in "cease to exist." I took it as take a dive the way the NBA did.
As did I.

The 'doomsday' fears that the NFL is going to go away entirely in 10-50-100 years seems like a stretch from super-PC journalists.

Boxing has declined to near amateurish (or certainly niche) interest levels, but it still exists.

Even 'violent' sports like bull riding and bull fighting still exist and have a following.

The NFL will certainly change drastically as strides are made to secure health, but rumors of the 'death of the sport' are exaggerated (and usually self-serving stories).
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Old 03-24-2014, 05:56 PM   #16
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Default Re: Mark Cuban: "Greedy " NFL Is 10 Years From Implosion

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Originally Posted by NSMaster56 View Post
Right, but 'popularity' does not equate or translate to 'revenue' or 'operating income'.

Behold the 2013 breakdown.

Compare it with the NBA.

The bottom half of the NHL is scraping by (relatively speaking). Comparatively, the NBA's worst franchises are still worth more than 1/2 of the NHL's (and only a few are even losing money). You don't have to imagine very hard how a comparison to the NFL looks. (MLB skates by thanks to 'revenue sharing' and sweetheart TV deals).

The NHL has the weakest TV deal(s) and least amount of popularity in the states. In terms of 'sustainable business models', theirs is almost certainly the weakest. Their fundamentals are fairly sound, they just can't operate on the same level as the more popular sports and the stats support it.
The bottom half of the NHL is in southern states, for the most part. For example, the Lightning and Panthers aren't popular in Florida, yet Florida has two hockey teams. The Thrashers, which just moved back to Winnipeg, were the epitome on an unstable team without a market. The NHL has tried - and failed - to market to the southern United States. I don't know if the NHL will ever be popular in the south. It's just a cultural thing.

The north east and Canada is what keeps the NHL alive. There's no risk of "imploding" because hockey is immensely popular in the north eastern US and all of Canada. Up here, the NHL and NFL are so far ahead every other sport in terms of popularity it's a little silly. The NBA and MLB are just a blur to most Canadians. Now, you could very easily argue this is due to a lack of parity (especially in the NBA) but the stats speak for themselves. The NHL may have weak TV deals, but when you're marketing to states north of Kentucky, you're missing roughly 50% of the US.
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Old 03-24-2014, 06:26 PM   #17
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Default Re: Mark Cuban: "Greedy " NFL Is 10 Years From Implosion

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The bottom half of the NHL is in southern states, for the most part. For example, the Lightning and Panthers aren't popular in Florida, yet Florida has two hockey teams. The Thrashers, which just moved back to Winnipeg, were the epitome on an unstable team without a market. The NHL has tried - and failed - to market to the southern United States. I don't know if the NHL will ever be popular in the south. It's just a cultural thing.

The north east and Canada is what keeps the NHL alive. There's no risk of "imploding" because hockey is immensely popular in the north eastern US and all of Canada. Up here, the NHL and NFL are so far ahead every other sport in terms of popularity it's a little silly. The NBA and MLB are just a blur to most Canadians. Now, you could very easily argue this is due to a lack of parity (especially in the NBA) but the stats speak for themselves. The NHL may have weak TV deals, but when you're marketing to states north of Kentucky, you're missing roughly 50% of the US.
Look, I love the NHL and am fairly aware of their demographics.

But if the question is 'which is the weakest/least popular of the major sports' then the answer has to be the NHL.

Even if the NFL 'imploded' and lost 1/2 of its popularity it would still be better off than the NHL.

The emergence of the KHL has syphoned off enough Russian talent (and should continue to), Gary Bettman is by far the worst commish in sports and the league continues to lag in revenues despite having the most talent quite possibly ever.

Niche fans (Canadians) should keep the sport alive, and there are so few fans (relatively speaking) so I guess the league can't really 'implode', but the NHL still seems like the most unstable league.
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Old 03-24-2014, 08:02 PM   #18
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Default Re: Mark Cuban: "Greedy " NFL Is 10 Years From Implosion

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Yep.

If an insurance company has to pay a billion dollar lawsuit to former college players, you know that they will stop covering those players. .
That train is already heading down the tracks

NCAA concussion lawsuits consolidated

A panel of judges has consolidated nearly a dozen concussion-related lawsuits to a federal court in the Northern District of Illinois where the first of the lawsuits has been pending for two years.

The Judicial Panel on Multidistrict Litigation (MDL) heard arguments in Las Vegas on Dec. 5 as to whether a 2011 lawsuit filed by former Eastern Illinois football player Adrian Arrington should be consolidated with another filed in U.S. District Court in the Eastern District of Tennessee in September.

Also considered were eight additional cases filed since then. As was the case with NFL suits alleging the league failed to educate players on the long-term effects of concussions, the MDL panel concluded the plaintiffs in the class-action lawsuits were similar enough to warrant consolidating the cases.

"Most of the actions now pending, however, involve nearly completely overlapping putative classes and claims," the judges wrote in their decision. "Regardless of the scope of the putative classes alleged, all actions share common factual questions concerning the NCAA's knowledge of the risks of concussions in football players and its policies governing the protection of players from such injuries."...

Before the cases were heard before the MDL panel last month, several legal experts told USA TODAY Sports that the NCAA concussion cases could be expected to follow a similar path as those filed against the NFL.


Before the cases were heard before the MDL panel last month, several legal experts told USA TODAY Sports that the NCAA concussion cases could be expected to follow a similar path as those filed against the NFL.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports...ngton/4293867/

The NCAA at least makes money - high schools do not

Football concussion lawsuits have reached the high school game on a national scale.

A Mississippi father of a high school football player filed a class-action lawsuit this week against the NCAA and the National Federation of State High School Associations. The suit seeks to represent a class of all current high school football players in the United States as of December 2013.

http://www.al.com/sports/index.ssf/2...awsuits_r.html
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Old 03-24-2014, 09:11 PM   #19
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Default Re: Mark Cuban: "Greedy " NFL Is 10 Years From Implosion

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As did I.

The 'doomsday' fears that the NFL is going to go away entirely in 10-50-100 years seems like a stretch from super-PC journalists.

Boxing has declined to near amateurish (or certainly niche) interest levels, but it still exists.

Even 'violent' sports like bull riding and bull fighting still exist and have a following.

The NFL will certainly change drastically as strides are made to secure health, but rumors of the 'death of the sport' are exaggerated (and usually self-serving stories).
What's happened to boxing is deplorable. Just when I was starting to get into it too..
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Old 03-24-2014, 09:37 PM   #20
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Default Re: Mark Cuban: "Greedy " NFL Is 10 Years From Implosion

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That train is already heading down the tracks
I hate being right...
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