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Old 04-02-2007, 10:47 AM   #1
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Default Prospecting for Draft Day "Sleepers"

another great article from former gm and scout, pat kirwan with some names worth keeping an eye on.

http://nfl.com/draft/story/10102138

Quote:
(April 1, 2007) -- We now enter the final month of preparation for the NFL draft (April 28-29). For the top players on most draft boards, it's time to discuss the flaws that have shown up.

It seems every player in this draft with a first-round grade (except Georgia Tech wide receiver Calvin Johnson) has an issue or two of concern. It happens every year, and the deeper teams drill down in the pursuit of all they need to know in order to use a first-round pick, the more they find out.

Is there a point when a team has too much information? As one general manager recently said to me, "If you want to build a case against a player, there's enough out there on just about all of the top 50 players. Then again, there's enough good information to feel good about the same players."

Mention Brady Quinn and you will hear accuracy issues. Then again, he did throw 95 touchdown passes. JaMarcus Russell gets tagged with potential weight issues, but no one denies he can throw all the passes. Joe Thomas is the best offensive tackle in the draft but more than once I have heard he occasionally gives up the inside rush.

Leon Hall is arguably the best corner, but pure playing speed isn't always demonstrated on game tapes. Alan Branch has rare size and is ideal for the 3-4 nose tackle position, but he's now under the microscope for not playing hard every play and some believe he has slipped a few spots in the first round.

With all the movement of veteran running backs this offseason, the running backs in the draft are constantly dealing with damage control. But Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch still have to worry about trades possibly involving Michael Turner or a veteran signing like Corey Dillon before they know their fate.

In the past three days, I heard linebacker Patrick Willis might struggle calling a defense, LaRon Landry doesn't play hard every play, Dwayne Jarrett is too slow, Paul Posluszny will not get any better, Lawrence Timmons plays great on tape but is 6-foot and not 6-2, and the list goes on.

Everyone I mentioned played the college game at its highest level and should be a very good pro. I'm inclined to think the overanalyzing is at full throttle.

DRILLING AT THE BOTTOM
I learned a valuable lesson a long time ago getting ready for the draft. It's important to spend time in the early part of April digging and scratching down at the bottom of the talent pool for late-round draft picks and free-agent types with at least one special quality -- exceptional speed, rare size, an interesting athlete from another sport -- something that catches your eye.

The personnel director should take one scout and turn him loose on the bottom feeders. Close to one whole round in the draft will come from players not invited to the NFL Scouting Combine.

Back in the early 1990s, we came across a player named Matt Willig, a backup defensive tackle at USC who was 6-foot-9. He didn't do much on game tapes and tested below our standards for a defensive tackle, but he could bend his knees and was smart to go along with that 6-9. We signed him about 15 minutes after the draft and moved him to offensive tackle. He spent two years training at the new position and ended up playing in the NFL for well over 10 years.

When you decide to work the bottom of the talent pool, I'm talking about players who did not go to the Combine, probably didn't play in any all-star games, and might have little in the area of production. They can be from big schools or they could be from schools no one has ever heard of.

Here's a list of the kind of guys I'm talking about. The young scout needs to head out on a three-week tour, working out a group like this, talking football with them, watching some tapes and aiming to come back to the office a day or two before the draft with a few nuggets. Remember when Steelers scout Dan Rooney Jr. came back with a running back named Willie Parker? Parker never started at North Carolina but he had rare speed.

1. Geoff Pope, CB, Howard University (5-11 5/8, 186 pounds)
Key numbers: 4.29 40-yard dash, 35-inch vertical jump
I talk with Pope every week and a number of teams are starting to send scouts to check out a guy with world-class speed. Colts starting safety Antoine Bethea played at Howard and was drafted in the seventh round last year.

2. Jeff Terrell, QB, Princeton (6-2?, 220 pounds)
Key numbers: 4.74 40-yard dash, 6.83 three-cone drill, 4.15 short shuttle, 35?-inch vertical jump
Remember an Ivy League quarterback named Ryan Fitzpatrick now with the Rams? Well, Terrell was the Ivy League Player of the Year. His movement skills are superior to most of the draftable quarterbacks and I'm certain he has the football intelligence.

3. Usama Young, CB, Kent State (5-11, 196 pounds)
Key numbers: 4.39 40-yard dash, 43-inch vertical jump, 6.65 three-cone drill, 10-11 broad jump, 15 reps on the bench press test
I'll put Young's numbers up against anyone in the draft. I have talked with Young and action is starting to pick up on the Kent State campus.

4. Melvin Bullitt, S, Texas A&M (6-1?, 201 pounds)
Key numbers: 4.48 40-yard dash, 40?-inch vertical jump, 3.97 short shuttle, 10-5 broad jump
I don't know a lot about Bullitt but that 3.97 short shuttle at his size is enough to send that scout to College Station for a workout.

5. Justin Hairston, RB, Central Connecticut State (6-0, 220 pounds)
Key numbers: 4.58 40-yard dash, 4.15 short shuttle, 6.94 three-cone drill, 39-inch vertical jump
Hairston started his career at Rutgers and played well in an all-star game, so it was a surprise he wasn't at the Combine. It's time to go find out why he left Rutgers -- can he catch the ball and what does he know about pass protections?

6. Mark Farbotko, TE, Harvard (6-5 5/8, 244 pounds)
Key numbers: 4.81 40-yard dash, 10-3 broad jump, 36?-inch vertical jump
No one ever thought Eric Johnson was going to jump from Yale to a starter in San Francisco overnight, but he did. Farbotko deserves a closer look.


Melvin Bullitt was an All-Big 12 player as a senior.
Other non-Combine players worth talking about include: West Virginia wide receiver Brandon Myles, Pittsburgh center Joe Villani, Syracuse linebacker Jerry Mackey and Nebraska tight end Matt Herian.

And now, here's my "Matt Willig List" for the 2007 draft. The first reaction from a scout I ran the list by was, "These guys can't play." Perfect, that's what everyone said about Willig, so I know I'm on the right track! The goal is to find one late-round pick/free agent who is worth developing as an offensive lineman.

1. Jason Capizzi, Indiana (Pa.) University (6-9, 324 pounds)
Key numbers: 5.22 40-yard dash, 34-inch arms, 11?-inch hands.
Sounds like a Willig clone, and I sure hope he can bend his ankles and knees.

2. Kyle Zaharias, Georgetown (Ky.) College (6-9, 270 pounds)
Key numbers: 5.06 40-yard dash, 34-inch arms
Zaharias is listed as a tight end, but his size and speed make this another stop in the search for the next Willig.

3. J.P. Bekasiak, Toledo (6-6, 296 pounds)
Key numbers: 5.09 40-yard dash, 32 reps on the bench
You have to take a look at a big, strong guy who can run. Remember, we are willing to dedicate two years on the practice squad for the right player.

4. Brandon Cox, Louisiana-Lafayette (6-6?, 329 pounds)
Key numbers: 5.85 40-yard dash, 5.07 short shuttle
Pretty slow, but his size makes it a stop on the tour.

5. David Shemaria, Bloomsburg (Pa.) Univ. (6-5 5/8, 302 pounds)
Key numbers: 5.28 40-yard dash, 28 reps on the bench
Keep in mind, Jahri Evans came from Bloomsburg before being picked in the fourth round last year by the Saints and starting all 16 games.

It's more important to be right at the top of the draft because of all the money involved, but being right at the bottom of the draft has a chance to make your team much better at a much cheaper price.

Buffalo got 16 starts from sixth-round linebacker Keith Ellison and seventh-round tackle Terrance Pennington last year. The Colts got 14 starts from seventh-round safety Antoine Bethea.

And there is no greater example of digging deep in the draft than Marques Colston, the 252nd player picked who started 12 games and had more Rookie of the Year votes than Reggie Bush. I heard a lot of people say he couldn't play in the NFL.
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Old 04-02-2007, 01:27 PM   #2
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Default Re: Prospecting for Draft Day "Sleepers"

Thats definitely an interesting article, it will be one to look back on after the draft and into next year.

I think the draft is a strange mix of crazy optimism and overly harsh criticism.

You read the final scouting conclusion with most players slated to go in the top 10 every year and they all sound like world beaters at their position.

Then you read their 'cons' and they sound pretty fundamentally flawed in some key aspect(s) of their game.

The fact remains that alot of rookies fail to make that much of an impression in their first year but its the job of the NFL and its 'talking heads' to hype them to the max.

I don't put Kirwan in this category - he seems more level headed than most.
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Old 04-02-2007, 04:50 PM   #3
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Default Re: Prospecting for Draft Day "Sleepers"

off this list, cb geoff pope intrigues me the most. just his numbers and relative obscurity remind me of ike taylor being taken in the 4th round. we havent had much luck with cb's in the 2nd round (if you listen to the fans). i would much rather take a flyer in the 4th than 2nd or 1st.

wich brings me to the 1st round lb's and the supposed negatives that are starting to surface. ive heard negatives on timmons yet i see the steelers show great interest. suprising if the report is paul poz has reached his peak already. if the giants are so high on poz and the steelers so high on timmons a swap of 1sts only seems natural according to how they grade out.

p. willis had a spectacular pro day that even trumped his excellent combine. i wonder if the thoughts that he cant qb a defense is a smokescreen. its seems teams from buffalo, carolina, steelers, bengals, giants, eagles, and patriots would all be happy if he were there with their 1st pick.
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Old 04-02-2007, 05:46 PM   #4
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Default Re: Prospecting for Draft Day "Sleepers"

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Originally Posted by tony hipchest View Post
off this list, cb geoff pope intrigues me the most. just his numbers and relative obscurity remind me of ike taylor being taken in the 4th round. we havent had much luck with cb's in the 2nd round (if you listen to the fans). i would much rather take a flyer in the 4th than 2nd or 1st.

wich brings me to the 1st round lb's and the supposed negatives that are starting to surface. ive heard negatives on timmons yet i see the steelers show great interest. suprising if the report is paul poz has reached his peak already. if the giants are so high on poz and the steelers so high on timmons a swap of 1sts only seems natural according to how they grade out.

p. willis had a spectacular pro day that even trumped his excellent combine. i wonder if the thoughts that he cant qb a defense is a smokescreen. its seems teams from buffalo, carolina, steelers, bengals, giants, eagles, and patriots would all be happy if he were there with their 1st pick.
You know, despite the poor (by Steeler standards) season Pittsburgh had last year, I don't think they lost the ability to evaluate talent.

Which is why I find it amazing that so many Steeler fans have already thrown the towel in with regards to McFadden and Ike - there is no guarantee that either will ever be elite but you have to think they will continue to improve - as young players do.

The way I see it you need to replace the talent that has grown long in the tooth before you declare young talent a bust.

Thats why I think Steelers will (and should) be looking OL, LB with their early round picks.
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The Patriots didn't bother with swagger to start this NFL season; they went straight to defiant. Either you're one of them or you're about to get crushed.
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Old 04-02-2007, 07:01 PM   #5
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Default Re: Prospecting for Draft Day "Sleepers"

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You know, despite the poor (by Steeler standards) season Pittsburgh had last year, I don't think they lost the ability to evaluate talent.

Which is why I find it amazing that so many Steeler fans have already thrown the towel in with regards to McFadden and Ike - there is no guarantee that either will ever be elite but you have to think they will continue to improve - as young players do.

The way I see it you need to replace the talent that has grown long in the tooth before you declare young talent a bust.

Thats why I think Steelers will (and should) be looking OL, LB with their early round picks.
its funny. james harrison was the cats meow as a back up. now that hes the starter, there are suddenly questions of his ability because he has never started a full season. (by definition, which back up does)?

it seems steelerfans want every starter to be 1st round talent even though even our 1st round picks cant start due to the complex systems we run. patience has already been lost with young players like washington, parker, ben, ike, mcfadden, and starks (even though those players helped contribute to a sb win).

i wonder if even the steelers scouts took a little break after the champ win. of course many rookies wouldnt be expected to make a championship roster, but our 2nd day picks would suggest no one even bothered looking.
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Old 04-02-2007, 07:09 PM   #6
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Default Re: Prospecting for Draft Day "Sleepers"

3. Usama Young, CB, Kent State (5-11, 196 pounds)
Key numbers: 4.39 40-yard dash, 43-inch vertical jump, 6.65 three-cone drill, 10-11 broad jump, 15 reps on the bench press test
I'll put Young's numbers up against anyone in the draft. I have talked with Young and action is starting to pick up on the Kent State campus.

Saw this kid play in 5-6 games, and he has enormous upside. I don't want a CB early because I personally think we are loaded at the position (Ike will rebound, Coke was having a great camp until injured, and Bryant McFadden will be a stud), but if you are going to draft a guy later, this is EXACTLY the kind of guy you draft.

I also think the Steelers are looking at Akron's Andy Alleman. Here's his profile from NFL.com:

Height: 6-4 | Weight: 305 | 40-Time: 5.07

Strengths:
Has a good frame and can still get bigger...Excellent athlete for the position with solid timed speed...Moves well and can adjust in space...Hard worker with a great motor...Plays with a nasty attitude...Light on his feet...Has a good deal of upside.

Weaknesses:
Is raw and he still has much to learn about playing the position from a technique and fundamentals standpoint...Could still stand to add some weight...He needs to get stronger, especially in his lower body...Might not be an ideal fit for everyone.

Notes:
Actually began his career as a defensive end at Pittsburgh before transferring in 2004...The type who would appear to be a perfect fit for teams that run a zone blocking scheme...Not yet a finished product but a prospect on the rise who has intriguing potential and could be one of the initial handful chosen at his position.
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Old 04-03-2007, 11:23 AM   #7
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Default Re: Prospecting for Draft Day "Sleepers"

Can I add:

Jacob Ford DE/OLB 6'4" 252 lbs Central Arkansas...
small school prospect with a high ceiling. He may bethe fastest and possibly most athletic lineman in the draft. There is a good chance he gets selected as a linebacker by a team that runs the 3-4 defense.

Julius McClellan WR 6'3" 227 lbs North Carolina Central...runs under 4.5...
Former juco transfer... has shot up boards since posting impressive numbers at his pro day. His size/speed combo has teams showing a good bit more interest, with a few who might consider using a draft pick on him late in the 7th round. Could potentially move to TE after gaining almost 20 pounds since his junior pro day. Many are looking at him as a developmental prospect that could pay big dividends at the next level. Expect, at the very worst, for him to be a early free agent signing after the draft.


Eric Fowler WR 6'3" 215 lbs Grand Valley State...4.48
Fowler had a solid junior year but his senior season is what has scouts buzzing. He led all of D2 in receiving on the year showing off good hands, route running, and the ideal size teams look for. He will need to work on his downfield blocking some and continue to become more polished as a player but he has all the tools you look for in a great receiver. He can make the tough catches and beat you deep with his speed. He might have gone from a free agent to as high as a 5th round pick in the NFL Draft.

Rashod Moulton CB/FS 5'11 192lbs Fort Valley ....ran a 4.44 40.
Moulton has been one of the top all-purpose players in DII over the last couple years. He has been a solid cornerback but will get drafted because he can return kicks, punts, and play both safety and cornerback. He has good size, speed, and has shown excellent athletic ability.


Greg Peterson DE 6'5 286lbs North Carolina Central ....4.73 40
He has over 100 tackles and 25.5 tackles for loss in his career. His production combined with his recent pro day results have scouts going back to NC Central and cross checking what they originally read during the season. He impressed in recent workouts enough to merit a spot not only on the list but in the top 10 among D2 prospects overall. He has the size/speed combo to play DT or DE. He has the strength to bull rush and the speed to chase down backs from behind.
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Old 04-04-2007, 06:33 AM   #8
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Default Re: Prospecting for Draft Day "Sleepers"

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Which is why I find it amazing that so many Steeler fans have already thrown the towel in with regards to McFadden and Ike - there is no guarantee that either will ever be elite but you have to think they will continue to improve - as young players do.


Because Ike has NEVER shown any consistencey at the position. (Though he does posses some physical upside) And after last season he actually seems to have regressed. Which is strange seeing as how he was not 'rushed' into the position.
As well as the fact that,....though he is relatively young. He's far from a rookie,...and can no longer use 'inexperience' as an excuse for mental lapses and or his lack of ball skills and awareness.

But i forgot,...none of this will be a problem for him anymore,.....because we have a new coach. Riiiiiiiiight
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Old 04-04-2007, 06:54 AM   #9
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Because Ike has NEVER shown any consistencey at the position. (Though he does posses some physical upside) And after last season he actually seems to have regressed. Which is strange seeing as how he was not 'rushed' into the position.
As well as the fact that,....though he is relatively young. He's far from a rookie,...and can no longer use 'inexperience' as an excuse for mental lapses and or his lack of ball skills and awareness.

But i forgot,...none of this will be a problem for him anymore,.....because we have a new coach. Riiiiiiiiight
I would argue that there were alot of guys who regressed to some extent last year.

The Steeler O-line has long been a real strong point - last time out it almost got Ben killed.

Having Polamalu as a free floating playmaker is great when he diagnoses the right play, but isn't quite so hot when he gets caught too near the LOS and his CB's are exposed deep - factor in a lack of penetration by the LBer/D-line corps and you have problems.

The Steelers are tough talent evaluators, I cannot imagine them giving Ike such a good contract for him not to have a high amount of ability.

Asante Samuel didn't have all the same problems Ike did last year, but he was renowned for having hands-of-rock - he dropped a number of easy picks.

Last year that part of his game fell into place and he racked up 10 INT's when his previous high had been 3.
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The Patriots didn't bother with swagger to start this NFL season; they went straight to defiant. Either you're one of them or you're about to get crushed.
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Old 04-04-2007, 09:09 PM   #10
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Default Re: Prospecting for Draft Day "Sleepers"

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I would argue that there were alot of guys who regressed to some extent last year.

The Steeler O-line has long been a real strong point - last time out it almost got Ben killed.

Having Polamalu as a free floating playmaker is great when he diagnoses the right play, but isn't quite so hot when he gets caught too near the LOS and his CB's are exposed deep - factor in a lack of penetration by the LBer/D-line corps and you have problems.

The Steelers are tough talent evaluators, I cannot imagine them giving Ike such a good contract for him not to have a high amount of ability.

Asante Samuel didn't have all the same problems Ike did last year, but he was renowned for having hands-of-rock - he dropped a number of easy picks.

Last year that part of his game fell into place and he racked up 10 INT's when his previous high had been 3.

Limitations as a product of scheme are one thing. Simply lacking the natural abilty to do certain things is another. Ike is in excellent condition for a cornerback. He has great size, speed and quick reflexes. HOWEVER,......'ball skills and awareness' (though they can be somewhat refined by coaching and or training.),.....are for the most part particular 'skills' or talents if you will,.... that are 'god given'. (Either you have them or you don't)

What i mean is this,.....you can look like a singer. You can dress like a singer. You can receive lessons and or tutalege from the greatest vocal coaches in the world. But in the end,......if you just don't have the "voice",......you are karaoke.

And now that i think about it,....how absurd is it to discuss any shortcomings of this team with the 'Enemy' ? LOL (And yes that means you,... "Brady Lover")
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