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Old 05-20-2008, 04:56 PM   #1
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Default NBA Draft Lottery!

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/draft2...t&lid=tab1pos1
"The 2008 NBA draft lottery (ESPN, 8 p.m. ET) brings us to one of the more interesting and debated aspects of the NBA Draft. Fourteen teams vie for the No. 1 pick in the draft based on the NBA's complicated lottery process.
The lottery originally was developed to help the NBA's worst teams rebuild by having the highest pick in the draft. But often the results haven't had exactly that effect.

Since 1990, only four teams with the worst record have won the lottery: the Orlando Magic in 2004, the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2003, the Philadelphia 76ers in 1996 and the New Jersey Nets in 1990.

The team with the second-best probability of winning the lottery has fared even worse, winning the lottery just twice: the Magic in 1992 and the San Antonio Spurs in 1997.

The lottery can change the course of a franchise. In 1992, the big prize was Shaquille O'Neal, and the Magic walked away with the Diesel even though the Timberwolves had the best chance of winning. How many championships would the Wolves have won with Shaq anchoring the paint?

In 1997, another amazing center, Tim Duncan, was the consensus No. 1 pick. And while the Celtics had the best chance of winning the lottery, the Spurs got the lucky bounce that would bring them four championships. Meanwhile, Celtics fans are still mourning over the big guy that got away.

Last year's lottery was one of the biggest in recent memory, with two top prizes -- Greg Oden and Kevin Durant. And it was the Portland Trail Blazers, who had just a 5.3 percent chance of winning the lottery, and the Seattle SuperSonics, who had just a 9.3 percent chance of getting the second pick, who took home the first and second picks. In fact, none of the three worst teams in the league finished in the top three last year.

This year, there are two top prizes again -- Derrick Rose and Michael Beasley. Last week, we broke down what each team in the lottery likely would do if it won the No. 1 pick. Here are some other interesting things to keep an eye on heading into Tuesday's draft lottery:

• Conspiracy theorists, start your engines. This year's New York Knicks are in the gutter and in desperate need of a franchise player. The perfect fit for the team -- Rose -- is waiting atop the draft.

Sound familiar?

The first lottery, in 1985, featured what many thought was a once-in-a-decade prize -- Georgetown center Patrick Ewing. The hometown Knicks were in desperate need of a franchise player and, miraculously, the Knicks won the lottery.

Theories abounded in 1985 about how the lottery could have been rigged to favor big-market teams such as the Knicks. Some claimed the NBA froze the envelope. Others said they heated it up. Still others said that commissioner David Stern deliberately nicked the side of the envelope so he could find it again.
Look at 4:50, really interesting, I dont think it was predetermined and that its a coincidence you can find things like this in anything, the knicks had their time and got the lucky draw.
David Stern reaches into the drum for the alleged "frozen envolope" so I included the entire thing, as well as Dave Debusschere showing a Ewing jersey already made up. A prelude to the Knicks-Pacers rivalry of the 1990's. Fans of the bent envelope theory point to 4:50 of the video where the corner of the envelope that would eventually be picked #1 can be seen with a bent corner sticking up.

The NBA has denied any shenanigans, of course. And its method of determining the winner of the lottery has become much more sophisticated over the years. Plus, rigging the lottery would be a federal crime.

"We've made great, great advances," Stern said recently regarding the more complex methods of determining the winner, "and the conspiracy theories haven't made the same advances."

This year, the Knicks have the fifth-best chance (a 7.6 percent chance) of winning the lottery, which isn't as bad as it might seem. Since 1990, the No. 5 team has won the lottery as many times as team in the top slot has: the Toronto Raptors in 2006, the Houston Rockets in 2002, the Golden State Warriors in 1995 and the Charlotte Hornets in 1991 all won the lottery from the fifth spot.

So if the Knicks come up big Tuesday night, don't blame the NBA, just blame those pingpong balls.


• Of the teams in the lottery this year, six teams -- the Heat, Sonics, Timberwolves, Grizzlies, Bobcats and Pacers -- have never won the lottery.

The Grizzlies are due -- they have had the worst record in the league three times yet have never won the lottery. And if they finally get the No. 1 pick this year, they'll have a very interesting choice to make. They desperately need a power forward, and Beasley seems like a perfect fit in their offense. However, hometown hero Rose stands with Beasley at the top of their draft board. The Grizz already have a huge glut at point guard and used the No. 4 pick in last year's draft to get Mike Conley, but will they have the courage to pass up a fan favorite and take Beasley?

Miami might stand to make the biggest move by getting the No. 1 pick. With Dwyane Wade and Shawn Marion already on the roster, the Heat are more talented than most teams in this position. Adding Rose or Beasley likely would catapult them back into the playoffs immediately.

Meanwhile, the Sonics present their fans in Seattle with another twist of fate by finishing in the top two. The city already fears losing out on the chance to watch Durant develop over the years. If the Sonics land Beasley or Rose, and continue with their move to Oklahoma City, the bittersweet feeling could get ever more bitter for Seattle fans.


The Timberwolves, to judge from their track record, are the only team in the group that could mess things up even if it gets the No. 1 pick. Since Minnesota landed Kevin Garnett in 1995, no one has screwed up more drafts than Kevin McHale. There's the infamous Joe Smith deal that cost the Wolves three first-round picks. Then, there's the series of lottery blunders. In 1996, they swapped the rights of Ray Allen for Stephon Marbury. In 1999, they passed on All-Stars Marion and Richard Hamilton to draft Wally Szczerbiak. In 2005, they passed on Danny Granger and took Rashad McCants. And in 2006, they traded Brandon Roy for Randy Foye.


The Bobcats have never won the lottery, but Michael Jordan did as the GM of the Wizards. He made the now-infamous Kwame Brown pick in 2001. Since then, Jordan's other big pick was in 2006 when he selected Adam Morrison over the likes of Brandon Roy and Rudy Gay.

As for the Pacers, if anyone deserves a break from the pingpong balls, it's them. Since the Ron Artest brawl, the franchise has been snakebit. A lottery win could catapult Indiana back into the mix in the East.


• If you're looking for teams that probably don't deserve to win, look no further than the Bucks, Clippers and Nets. Each team already has been fortunate enough to win the lottery twice. And each team has made questionable-to-bad calls on both No. 1 selections.

The Bucks passed on Jason Kidd and Grant Hill to take Glenn Robinson in 1994. More recently, they passed on Chris Paul and Deron Williams to take Andrew Bogut in 2005.

The Clippers passed on Paul Pierce and Dirk Nowitzki to draft Michael Olowokandi in 1998. And although their No. 1 pick in 1988, Danny Manning, was a better selection, he didn't turn into a superstar, either.

As for the Nets, they chose Kenyon Martin with their No. 1 pick in 2000. (To their credit, it was one of the worst drafts ever -- Martin hasn't been great, but neither have any of the other top players in that draft.) In 1990, the Nets took Derrick Coleman with the No. 1 pick, one pick ahead of Gary Payton.

• Finally, according to John Hollinger's draft do-overs (last updated in 2006), the top pick in the draft became the best player from that draft only four times from 1995 to 2005: Tim Duncan in 1997, Elton Brand in 1999, LeBron James in 2003 and Dwight Howard in 2004.
"

Really good article, I will be watching the lottery closely tonight, this will determine what team will really be able to rebuild and who will be back in the lottery next year.
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Last edited by BettisFan; 05-20-2008 at 05:11 PM.
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Old 05-20-2008, 07:40 PM   #2
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Default Re: NBA Draft Lottery!

Bulls get the first pick which is sweet since I'm a Bulls fan...Yes was a fan before the 6 NBA titles...I grew up and still live close to Chicago...I remember the Pistons knocking the Bulls out of the play-offs when I was a kid....I just hope the Bulls take Derrick Rose...
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Old 05-20-2008, 08:03 PM   #3
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Default Re: NBA Draft Lottery!

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Bulls get the first pick which is sweet since I'm a Bulls fan...Yes was a fan before the 6 NBA titles...I grew up and still live close to Chicago...I remember the Pistons knocking the Bulls out of the play-offs when I was a kid....I just hope the Bulls take Derrick Rose...
Bulls Brethren!!!!! Yeah, Rose would be a good pick up. Not to mention he is FROM Chicago.
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Old 05-20-2008, 08:37 PM   #4
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Default Re: NBA Draft Lottery!

Yea well good for you all but its pure BS its not fair at all that the bulls who dont need the pick as much as the heat or memphis or timberwolves win the first pick its a flawed system.
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Old 05-21-2008, 05:08 AM   #5
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Default NBA Lottery Chat

Some things I just dont understand...

SECAUCUS, NJ, May 20 Following are the results from the 2008 NBA Draft Lottery, which was conducted Tuesday at NBA TVs studio in Secaucus, New Jersey. The Chicago Bulls, who had a 1.7 percent chance of obtaining the first selection, will have the first overall pick in the 2008 NBA Draft, which will be held in New York City at The WaMu Theater at Madison Square Garden on Thursday, June 26, 2008.

1. Chicago
2. Miami
3. Minnesota
4. Seattle
5. Memphis
6. New York
7. LA Clippers
8. Milwaukee
9. Charlotte
10. New Jersey
11. Indiana
12. Sacramento
13. Portland
14. Golden State

How can Miami not have the number 1 pick in this draft? Whoever has the worst record should get that pick at number 1? Just makes no sense to me.
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Old 05-21-2008, 05:36 AM   #6
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Default Re: NBA Draft Lottery!

Quote:
The lottery can change the course of a franchise. In 1992, the big prize was Shaquille O'Neal, and the Magic walked away with the Diesel even though the Timberwolves had the best chance of winning. How many championships would the Wolves have won with Shaq anchoring the paint?
Probably the same number as the Magic did with him - zero, considering Shaq wound up in L.A. (and probably would have wound up there anyway).
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Old 05-21-2008, 08:54 AM   #7
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Yea well good for you all but its pure BS its not fair at all that the bulls who dont need the pick as much as the heat or memphis or timberwolves win the first pick its a flawed system.

Tell me about it!! Memphis' odds should have been a helluva lot better and they still end up picking #5. Chicago was only supposed to have a 1-2% chance of landing the top pick. Now you tell me something ain't rotten about this!

OK...I've vented....feel better now

That said....the sun still rose this morning....time for Wallace and Co. to get to work and secure a good draft pick....many here are hoping for Mayo.
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Old 05-21-2008, 09:25 AM   #8
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Default Re: NBA Draft Lottery!

well it was an odd scene to see the bulls who had 1.7% chance of winning the lottery actually did... it's just the luck of the draw i guess.. chi lucked out since they are a good team now and will get a good player in either beasly or rose..
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Old 05-21-2008, 05:25 PM   #9
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Originally Posted by Elvis View Post
Some things I just dont understand...

SECAUCUS, NJ, May 20 Following are the results from the 2008 NBA Draft Lottery, which was conducted Tuesday at NBA TVs studio in Secaucus, New Jersey. The Chicago Bulls, who had a 1.7 percent chance of obtaining the first selection, will have the first overall pick in the 2008 NBA Draft, which will be held in New York City at The WaMu Theater at Madison Square Garden on Thursday, June 26, 2008.

1. Chicago
2. Miami
3. Minnesota
4. Seattle
5. Memphis
6. New York
7. LA Clippers
8. Milwaukee
9. Charlotte
10. New Jersey
11. Indiana
12. Sacramento
13. Portland
14. Golden State

How can Miami not have the number 1 pick in this draft? Whoever has the worst record should get that pick at number 1? Just makes no sense to me.
David Stern's reason (nba commisoner) was that teams may try to lose their games in the end so this system makes that not applicable. This is redicoulous sports athletes never want to lose its all in the game they want to win, its a pride thing. This system also is not fair as an example if they were to keep this system its not fair for a team to get a pick lower than the position they actually are like the Knicks who were 5th worst in the league got 6th pick! Thats just wrong.
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Old 05-21-2008, 10:05 PM   #10
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well most of the time u get the pick u are su[pposed to get.. but there are times where teams can sneak up somehow.. and i do think ORGANIZATIONS do try to throw games near the end to maybe get that 1 player
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