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Old 12-14-2009, 03:05 PM   #41
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Default Re: Chicken @#$% BCS

Quote:
Originally Posted by SteelersinCA View Post
What importance do preseason rankings carry?

Seriously? You don't know? Instead of me explaining, why don't I post up a good article from a rare blogger who actually KNOWS what he's talking about?

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/3...n-polls-matter

A lot of people have the opinion that preseason polls don't matter.
Well this is a look at preseason polls and just how much they do matter in winning a national title. Overcoming a low, or even non-ranking in a preseason poll is the most difficult obstacle for an undefeated team to overcome on the road to the national championship. With the addition of the BCS, this has become even more important since if you aren't number one or number two, you have no shot at a title. Strength of schedule also has become more important in winning a title.
With the help of my buddy Stuart Carter, let's take a look at the importance of preseason polls in college football, using Auburn's 2004 season as a reference.
Preseason to No. 1
Always a popular debate among college football fans is the current system of ranking the teams, which includes preseason polls. For Auburn fans, this topic became a primary issue when the 2004 Auburn Tigers were left out of the BCS National Championship game. By the end of the 2004 regular season, the so-called experts in an attempt to justify the matchup of Oklahoma and Southern Cal questioned Auburnís strength of schedule.
We could debate all day long who deserved to be in the BCS Championship Game in 2004, but in the end a worthy team was going to be left out. This is why under the current BCS system preseason rankings are sometimes the first major step toward being crowned No. 1 at the end of the season. Being ranked in the top five to start the season wonít always get you there but it can increase your odds.
History of preseason rankings...
From 1960-2007 there were 57 teams crowned No. 1 by the AP, UPI or BCS. Of those 57 teams, 27 (47.3 percent) began the season ranked in the top five of the Associated Press Poll. More than 75 percent (43) began the season ranked in the top 10 and 84 percent (48) were ranked in the preseason top 15. Only six teams started the season unranked and three of those teams were from the decade of the 1960s. This included Minnesota in 1960, USC in 1962, Michigan State in 1965, Clemson in 1981, BYU in 1984 and Georgia Tech in 1990.
Broken down by decade, here are the average preseason rankings of the eventual national champion.
1960-1969 10.0
1970-1979 4.7
1980-1989 11.7
1990-1999 6.3
2000-2007 7.4
When you consider that nearly half of the national championship teams were ranked in the preseason top five and 75 percent were ranked in the top 10, itís indicative that preseason rankings play a major role in deciding the eventual champion. This is the very reason why Auburn was left out during the 2004 season. Auburn began the season ranked No. 17 in the AP Poll while Oklahoma and Southern Cal held the top two spots. Auburn was able to climb the polls but unfortunately for the Tigers, they finished the regular season third in the polls.
Preseason No.1 and No. 2
From 1960 through 2004 there have only been two seasons that the preseason No. 1 and No. 2 stayed in the top two slots before the bowl games. It happened during the 1970 season when Ohio State and Texas started the season No. 1 and No. 2 and remained in the top two slots by time the last regular season game was played. It did not happen again until 2004. For Auburn, it was simply bad timing to go 12-0 before the bowl games. Any other season other than 1970 or 2004 and Auburn plays for the national championship.
Strength of Schedule...
In terms of strength of schedule, the 2004 Auburn Tigers had it tougher than more than 70 percent of the eventual teams crowned No. 1 from 1960-2007. Of the 16 teams that had a greater strength of schedule, only four of them finished the season undefeated and untied. Thirteen teams actually had a strength of schedule below .500, which was a primary reason those 13 teams combined for a record of 149-0-1. The 1980 Georgia Bulldogs had the weakest strength of schedule followed by Brigham Young in 1984.
A primary factor in winning it all is the schedule. The 1983 Auburn Tigers proved it was not worth the risk of playing a difficult schedule being snubbed by the voters with Miami ís Orange Bowl victory over the Nebraska Cornhuskers. What Auburn accomplished during the entire 1983 season did not carry the same weight as Miamiís bowl win. The 2006 Florida Gators had the greatest strength of schedule among the other mythical national champions but it was Southern Calís loss during the last week of the regular season that gave the Gators a shot at Ohio State in the BCS Championship.
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Old 12-15-2009, 09:45 AM   #42
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Default Re: Chicken @#$% BCS

I don't get into the stats, what I'd like to see the stats for is a BCS team going undefeated and not making the NCG. I bet that's a rarity. In the rare circumstance where that does happen, I'm sure preseason ranking has an effect. Just my opinion that doesn't make it HUGE, but reasonable minds can differ I suppose.

He says if you aren't #1 or #2 you have no shot. I stopped reading after that. Alabama was 5th. Oops.
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Old 12-15-2009, 12:09 PM   #43
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Default Re: Chicken @#$% BCS

He was stating that #1 and #2's almost NEVER stay there...it's always lower ranked teams moving up. The point is that these preseason rankings aren't very accurate and carry too much weight. You're actually reading it as the opposite of what he's really saying.
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Old 12-15-2009, 01:57 PM   #44
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Default Re: Chicken @#$% BCS

Like I said I stopped reading after that so perhaps I am opposite of what he said. I just don't think pre-season rankings are that significant. Take OSU for example, they'll be ranked in the top 10 regardless of a win or loss in the Rose Bowl. I think the rankings are more determined based on who is coming back and their performance throughout the season than on one bowl game. If OSU wins out, they'll play for the title, I can practically guarantee it. Likewise, you can virtually guarantee that for any BCS team. So far it has only happened once in the history of the BCS, to auburn, and in my humble opinion 10% of the time is not significant but for that year.

All I care about is quality games to watch. Outside of the NCG I don't even think about where that team would rank based upon a win or loss. I can't think the average fan does, they just want to be entertained. So as long as the BCS keeps getting the NCG right, what is the impetus to change it? So far they have been pretty spot on in that regard and the point of a playoff is to crown a champion. To me it seems like the teams who didn't do their job and take care of business want another bite of the apple. I think it's unfair.

So far it remains simple, win your games, play for the crystal football. Lose, trip up, take a week off, join the rest of the whiners and criers clamoring for another shot because you couldn't handle your business. That's how I see it. Not saying I'm right and anyone else is wrong.
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Old 12-15-2009, 02:07 PM   #45
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Default Re: Chicken @#$% BCS

The bottom line is that the preseason stats DO have a direct bearing on where teams end up. It's why teams like OSU and USC have an easier trip to the big bowls than TCU. In fact, I think the BCS ratings actually take preseason ratings into account in their formula.

That needs tweaking, too, if they are going to keep the current system in place.
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