2010 Kentucky Derby

[tony hipchest]

by no means am i an expert (which probably explains why i had Mine That Bird last year, for nothing more than sentementality and rooting for the local ride and underdog trainer).

but even for the non-horse fan who loves to gamble, you can turn the kentucky derby into a bit of fun. i like to hedge my bets, where i can possibly win big, and insure that i dont lose too much. making a sound bet, really only takes a few minutes of research.

my dad told me to pick him some horses, so here are my bets (when all else fails i like a horse who can fly like a "bird" or is money (ice)-

The Derby field in post-position order with odds: Lookin At Lucky, 3-1; Ice Box, 10-1; Noble's Promise, 12-1; Super Saver, 15-1; Line of David, 30-1; Stately Victor, 30-1; American Lion, 30-1; Dean's Kitten, 50-1; Make Music for Me, 50-1; Paddy O'Prado, 20-1; Devil May Care, 10-1; Conveyance, 12-1; Jackson Bend, 15-1; Mission Impazible, 20-1; Discreetly Mine, 30-1; Awesome Act, 10-1; Dublin, 12-1; Backtalk, 50-1; Homeboykris, 50-1; and Sidney's Candy, 5-1.

Anytime I ever play the ponies, I always go with horse #4 (who wears the black and gold cloth, and is my lucky number) and I feel has the shortest distance with the best angle going into the 1st turn. This year is Super Saver who is ridden by Calvin Borel who won the first 2 legs of the triple crown last year with Mine That Bird and Rachel Alexandra (and also won the derby in 2007).

Mission Impazible starts from gate #14 (my next favorite lucky number). This horse is owned by Terry Bradshaw. (knowing his luck with ranching and raising animals will probably flop, but gotta root for Terry).

Lookin At Lucky was made the early 3-1 favorite for the Kentucky Derby and Sidney's Candy was the second choice Wednesday in a full field of 20 horses. Neither, however, drew the most favorable post position for Saturday's race.
Trained by three-time Derby winner Bob Baffert and ridden by Garrett Gomez, Lookin At Lucky drew the No. 1 post — generally considered a disadvantage because horses charging into the first turn of the 1 1-4 mile track tend to jam the inside

Sidney's Candy, 5-1, didn't fare much better, drawing the outside No. 20 post — making for the widest of all trips around Churchill Downs..

I wouldnt even mess with the favorites unless throwing one in for a trifecta.

I say balance gut/luck/superstition with brain. USA Today always prints the horses records on Friday. If a horse has 7 races with 4 wins, a place and a show, they are probably pretty good. If they have 5 races with just 1 place and 1 show, chances are they suck. Couple that info with their starting position and you can make a fairly reasonable bet.

[MattsMe]

I feel the revival of a long dead horse thread coming on....

Must...resist...the urge!

[tony hipchest]

VIVA LA BARBARO!!!!

[MattsMe]

Originally Posted by tony hipchest

VIVA LA BARBARO!!!!

Never has an emoticon been more appropriate.

[tony hipchest]

always good to get your bets in early. super saver is now co-favorites with lookin at lucky at 8-1 (the #1 gate has definitely hurt his favored status and may be a good buy late).

super saver and mission impazible are mudders and the sloppy track should favor them. i also got the fille devil may care. shes a winner who also likes the slop. plus 3 horses won from the #11 stall in the earlier races.

[Killer]

What a huge waste of time with the pre-race crap.

Screw the owners and jockeys, slap a saddle on those gluebuckets, grap a whip and get this thing going already.

[tony hipchest]

no shit! 3 hours is rediculous. even worse than the owners and jockeys is an hour spent on all the horse dorks and their dumbass hats and juleps.

well no trifecta for me but still a good day as i had most $$$ on super saver. congrats to anyone who took my advice (PM me for where to send my cut... i take paypal).

"ice' box was money if you like the win, place, and show bets (when i have a horse i really like, i always put some money down on all three to hedge).

terry bradshaws horse came in 8th in the field of 20. doesnt win crap but is a respectable run. atleast he didnt totally flop.

pimlico in 2 weeks. dont expect 8-1 odds on the favorite in this one.

[Indo]

Calvin's on FIRE!
He predicted the Triple Crown
I think he's right ...

I feel bad for Joe Talamo -- his horse scratched last year and just plain ran outta gas this year

It's clearly Calvin's time. He may end up being the best jockey EVER (even better than Shoemaker) by the time his career is over

[tony hipchest]

it seems like anything he touches is gold now. i was bummed when he dismounted mine that bird last year.