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Old 10-07-2006, 03:04 PM   #11
Livinginthe past
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Default Re: Going out on a Limb: Ben has a good game

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Originally Posted by theropodx View Post
I'm so tired of hearing armchair qb's in this forum toss out theories about Ben's performance. I've heard everything from "he's got post-tramatic stress disorder" to "he's jinxed."
Someone with an opinion based upon what they see on the football field does not make them 'arm-chair' QB's - it makes them football fans.

If these people were what you claim them to be, then you are no different yourself - albeit one whose 'passing cone' (copyright Madden) is probably pink due to the rose tinted glasses you wear.

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BS. The team (including Ben--but not as much as people say) has played poorly. Yes, Ben has thrown INTs, but many have come late in the game when errors by other players have forced the issue. Yes, he's missed passes, but rookie receivers were not following their routes. Yes he's been hurting, and he's rusty (there, I said it), but it's not PTSD or a jinx (whatever that is).
Ben has thrown awful pretty much all game, in both games with the exception of the first couple of series against JAX.

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I'd love to give a lesson in statistics, but I don't have the time and they wouldn't get it anyway. But in a nutshell:

Because both losses were one score losses, the distance between those games being won was slight. One less fumble, one more receiver where he's supposed to be--dozens of other non qb errors corrected--and we win those games. We could so easily be 3-0 right now and people would be going on about how great Ben is and how they knew all along he would snap right back. Right.
Im afraid you can't go back in time and award the Steelers extra points, without factoring in how that would affect the play of the opposition.

When teams are ahead they tend to play more conservative, when behind more aggressive - if the Steelers magically eliminated the mistakes - then who is to say the opposition wouldnt have responded.

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And that's the problem: people here (and everywhere) are so good at calling it AFTER it happens. So, I'm going to put my money where my mouth is. I predict:

1.) The last two games were a product of natural statistical variations more than anything else and odds are Ben will have a good game at SD, if not one of his best performances.

2.) Win or lose, Ben will start playing good again. What's more, the TEAM will start playing better, and we'll come out of this season with a strong finish.

So there you go. Laying out my opinions before the game, not after. Risky I know. Ya'll should try it too.
How much money are we talking?

I'll take a $10 bet with you, if you are willing to do it through paypal.

For the record, spinning a coin and have it come down heads 20 times consecutively does not make it more likely to fall tails on the next throw - that is established statistical theory.

2 bad QB games from Ben do not ensure a world beating performance is 'just around the corner, either.

You need to define the boundaries for Bens good performance.

Here are my thoughts/predictions.

Ben wont have a better than +1 TD to INT ratio.

Ben wont throw for better than 65% completion rate.

Ben wont have a QB rating of better than 85.0.

Fancy any of that action?

NM
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Old 10-07-2006, 03:50 PM   #12
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Default Re: Going out on a Limb: Ben has a good game

I think this must be the week that Ben and Hines get something going and our passing game must take some pressure off the runing game...
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Old 10-07-2006, 08:31 PM   #13
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Default Re: Going out on a Limb: Ben has a good game

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How much money are we talking?

I'll take a $10 bet with you, if you are willing to do it through paypal.

For the record, spinning a coin and have it come down heads 20 times consecutively does not make it more likely to fall tails on the next throw - that is established statistical theory.

2 bad QB games from Ben do not ensure a world beating performance is 'just around the corner, either.
You're putting words in my mouth. I said no such thing.

A coin only has two sides, but Ben has a better than 50% win record. So for any given game, odds are he's going to make more like 70% of the plays.

A better analogy for Ben is a game die. For any given roll, you're more than likely going to get a number higher than a 1. But it's also easy to roll a 1 twice in a row. However, roll again and the odds are in your favor to roll a 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6.

The reason I said the odds are good Ben has a good game is not because he's had two bad ones, but because history shows he's always more likely to have a good game than not (vs. other qb's).

As for the money: no thanks. My premise is not based on a passer rating or TD-INT stats, but that Ben is not Jinxed or suffering PTSD. I guess I would be willing to bet on a Win, BUT then two other players could fumble at the end of the game again and the loss would not be due to Ben being Jinxed.
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Old 10-07-2006, 11:26 PM   #14
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Default Re: Going out on a Limb: Ben has a good game

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You're putting words in my mouth. I said no such thing.

A coin only has two sides, but Ben has a better than 50% win record. So for any given game, odds are he's going to make more like 70% of the plays.

A better analogy for Ben is a game die. For any given roll, you're more than likely going to get a number higher than a 1. But it's also easy to roll a 1 twice in a row. However, roll again and the odds are in your favor to roll a 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6.

The reason I said the odds are good Ben has a good game is not because he's had two bad ones, but because history shows he's always more likely to have a good game than not (vs. other qb's).

As for the money: no thanks. My premise is not based on a passer rating or TD-INT stats, but that Ben is not Jinxed or suffering PTSD. I guess I would be willing to bet on a Win, BUT then two other players could fumble at the end of the game again and the loss would not be due to Ben being Jinxed.
So you think Ben has a 70-80% chance of having a 'good game' sunday?

But you wont define what a 'good game' is.

No wonder you're pretty confident in your 'brave' pre-game predictions - they dont have any substance.

NM
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Old 10-08-2006, 11:22 PM   #15
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Default Re: Going out on a Limb: Ben has a good game

my limb broke.
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Old 10-08-2006, 11:26 PM   #16
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Default Re: Going out on a Limb: Ben has a good game

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my limb broke.
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Old 10-12-2006, 01:09 AM   #17
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Default Re: Going out on a Limb: Ben has a good game

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my limb broke.
that is funny... but sadly it is true.
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Old 10-12-2006, 04:02 PM   #18
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Default Re: Going out on a Limb: Ben has a good game

Yeah, I still stand by my argument that 2 games does not make a good statistical sample. However, it's 3 games now, and while Ben isn't the only weak link, with every game he can't throw a TD, the questions grow.

Still, I contend sooner than later Ben will have a great game because that is what he does--his first two years of great games overrides 2, 3, or even 4 bad games. When he's back in stride--when the whole team is back in stride--the wild speculation will end as quickly as it started.
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Old 10-15-2006, 07:09 PM   #19
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Default Re: Going out on a Limb: Ben has a good game

HE'S BACK, BABY!!!

B. Roethlisberger KS GAME STATS:

PASSING COMP: 16/19 (84%)
YDS: 238
TD: 2
INT: 0
RATING: 153.8

Last edited by theropodx; 10-15-2006 at 07:22 PM.
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Old 10-15-2006, 10:24 PM   #20
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Default Re: Going out on a Limb: Ben has a good game

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2 bad QB games from Ben do not ensure a world beating performance is 'just around the corner, either.
Apparently it takes 3 bad games.
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