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Old 11-09-2006, 08:38 PM   #1
paw-n-maul-u
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Default For those looking for some statistical playoff hope

Not that I am, but I know there are some of you that will be waving your towels and smiling all the way till december ... and if you are interested in the possible scenarios, I got this off of steelers.com


I went through the remaining schedules for Baltimore, Cincy, and PGH. Looking at all possible scenarios with tiebreakers to determine the chances of the Steelers winning the division if they go 10-6, 9-7 or 8-8

I have a couple of assumptions:
-Any game is a 50/50 proposition, Either team has an equal change to win it this made my study simpler.
-Cleveland is a non-factor, they are also 2-6, but adding them into the analysis was a complication I didn't want to deal with.

There are 256 different ways that the Steeler season can end, 256 different combinations of wining and losing left in 2006. In addition Baltimre and Cincy have about 8000 combinations of W and L better them, not counting their games w/PGH

Projecting the Steelers season, and then looking at what Baltimore and Cincy might do in each case I was able to work out the chances of winning the division for a given record the Steelers might have.

If they finish 10-6, (1 scenario in 256) the Steelers win the divsion in 88.3% of the cases depending on what Balt and Cincy do. PGH will have a 5-1 division record and will win all tiebreaks, so the only way the Steelers don't win the divsion at 10-6 is if Cincy or Balt goes 11-5 or better.

Chance of going 10-6: 1 in 256 or (0.39%)
Chance of going 10-6 + Win the division: 88.3%* 0.39% = 0.34% (3 in 1000)


If they finish 9-7 (8 scenarios in 256), the Steelers win the division in 44.1% of the cases depending what Cincy and Balt do.

Chance of going 9-7: 8 in 256 or 3.1%
Chance of going 9-7 + win the division: 44.1%*3.1% = 1.4%

If the finish 8-8 (28 scenarios in 256), the Steelers win the division in 10.6% of the cases depending on what Balt and Cincy do. If they go 8-8 by losing both games to Baltimore, they have no chance to win the division.

Chance of going 8-8: 28 in 256 10.9%
Chance of going 8-8 + win the division: 10.6%*10.9 = 1.1%

The sum of these changes says that the Steelers have a 2.9% chance of winning the division, if they go 8-8 or better.


... Basically we have to win out (duh) ... and baltimore has to finish no better than 4-2 in their final 6 games (not including pittsburgh) ... and cincy has to finish no better than 6-1 in their final 7 games (not including pittsburg) ... if both those scenarios held true, the steelers, bengals, and ravens would tie for the division but steelers would win tiebreaker based on division record ... sweet ... easy ... so i guess we should just win out now
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Old 11-09-2006, 08:39 PM   #2
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Default Re: For those looking for some statistical playoff hope

I'm more worried about winning games first.
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Old 11-09-2006, 10:09 PM   #3
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Default Re: For those looking for some statistical playoff hope

Doesn't it seem like the scenario's are getting more and more far-fetched every week?
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Old 11-09-2006, 10:16 PM   #4
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Default Re: For those looking for some statistical playoff hope

OJ was found not guilty.
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Old 11-09-2006, 11:01 PM   #5
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Default Re: For those looking for some statistical playoff hope

I don't need math to tell me how unlikely it is that my boys aren't making the playoffs. :( Thanks for quantifying it, though!
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Old 11-10-2006, 11:15 AM   #6
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Default Re: For those looking for some statistical playoff hope

I am not a statistics nut, but I say this...

Until I am told that the Steelers are completely eliminated from the post-season, I still hold out HOPE...

I keep on believing that the boiz in black n gold will learn to HOLD ON TO THE BALL and NOT THROW BAD PASSES and that we will win out... That may be a pipe-dream, but hey come off it...IT'S MY PIPE DREAM...

It all starts with New Orleans this weekend in Heinz field... I will be watching in Wisconsin in my full Steeler regalia... HERE WE GO STEELERS...HERE WE GO...


YA GOTTA BELIEVE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Old 11-10-2006, 11:19 AM   #7
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Default Re: For those looking for some statistical playoff hope

Quote:
Originally Posted by augustashark View Post
OJ was found not guilty.
Thats my quote buddy
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Old 11-10-2006, 12:08 PM   #8
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Default Re: For those looking for some statistical playoff hope

How 'bout a "Thanks" to the guy doing those stats? I'm sure they were not simple to compute. I think they can still lose one game and get in. You never know what injuries Baltimore may experience. McNair is only one hit away from another bruised sternum! Baltimore's team as a whole seems rather aged, and the Bungles are having their own problems. Even though their schedule says that the Ravens should likely finish 10-6, I doubt that they do. I see no reason we can't be the Ravens twice, and the Bungles in Cincy. There is also no reason we can't beat the Browns twice. That gets us to 7 wins. That leaves the 'Aints, the 'Yucks, and Carolina left to play. 2 of these are at home, Carolina on the road. I'm gonna take for granted that we beat Tampa Bay as they are simply horrible, that's 8 wins. We'll beat the Saints simply because we are due for a win, and their defense is a bit schizophrenic, however, it will likely be a high scoring affair and anything can happen in those games, and who knows, Cowher's likely to take a knee at the end of the half with 2 minutes, 2 timeouts, and the ball on the goal-line. Carolina has a weak running game and Delhomme has been bad this year, so if we are on any kind of a roll going into that game, we should come out with a W. How's that for some optimism??
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Old 11-10-2006, 01:21 PM   #9
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Default Re: For those looking for some statistical playoff hope

I love optimism. Thanks for providing an inkling to whats left of my sorry NFL year.
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Old 11-10-2006, 01:57 PM   #10
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Default Re: For those looking for some statistical playoff hope

haha jeez guys ... i didnt think id get THIS reaction but i guess its understandable ... im pretty done with this season myself but I mean, its not IMPOSSIBLE ... the denver loss really didn't matter that much ... we could afford one more loss as long as it wasnt to a division opponent, so it didnt really matter when it came, just now they HAVE to win out ... long shotbut who knows ... there have been much longer than 8 game win streaks before and with much worse teams. The talent is not the issue, the heart and desire are
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