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Old 09-26-2007, 10:13 AM   #1
jtmill
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Default Steelers in the Playoffs?

For all you dreamers out there...


Steelers Heading to the Playoffs? Football Outsiders Says Go Ahead And Bet The Farm
By Blitzburgh
Posted on Wed Sep 26, 2007 at 10:39:06 AM EDT

Wow I love Football Outsiders. The latest gem I've discovered is their DVOA Playoff Odds Report. Basically, FO has played out the season 5,000 times using an equation based on their metrics plus home-field advantage (take the time at some point to read their explanations of how their metrics are derived). Here's what they came up with:

Odds of Pittsburgh making the Playoffs = 94.1%

Odds of Steelers winning the AFC North = 79.7% - um, for those writers out there who aren't convinced that the Steelers are in the same class as the Bengals and Ravens yet? I dare you to take on FO's metrics.

Odds of Steelers securing #1 Seed in Playoffs = 36.9% - interestingly enough, only the New England Patriots are a safer bet to make the playoffs (99.1%), but Pittsburgh is still more likely to claim the top seed (36.9% vs. 34.4%).

A few more interesting nuggest from their projections: San Diego's got work to do. As of now, their likelihood at making the playoffs is a mere 21.8%. The Bengals better get after it as well. Their chances are 16.6% for the moment. Here was also a big shocker that I'd like to spend more time thinking about: Tampa Bay is slightly more likely than Indianapolis (10.5% vs. 9.3%) to win the Super Bowl

Oh, and by the way, Your Pittsburgh Steelers are, at the moment, the odds-on favorite to win the Super Bowl. Hey, it's just one computer's 'opinion', but I'd rather such prognostications be coming from an algorithem than a human's stream of consciousness.
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Old 09-26-2007, 10:17 AM   #2
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Default Re: Steelers in the Playoffs?

Playoffs??????????????? Are you talking about Playoffs????????

(sorry i couldnt resist it..lol)
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Old 09-26-2007, 10:18 AM   #3
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Default Re: Steelers in the Playoffs?

Too early.
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Old 09-26-2007, 10:19 AM   #4
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Default Re: Steelers in the Playoffs?

It is way to early for me to read stuff like that.
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Old 09-26-2007, 10:20 AM   #5
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Default Re: Steelers in the Playoffs?

Yea, I'm not getting my hopes up, but it's still nice to think about.
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Old 09-26-2007, 11:26 AM   #6
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Default Re: Steelers in the Playoffs?

Quote:
Originally Posted by jtmill View Post
For all you dreamers out there...


Steelers Heading to the Playoffs? Football Outsiders Says Go Ahead And Bet The Farm
By Blitzburgh
Posted on Wed Sep 26, 2007 at 10:39:06 AM EDT

Wow I love Football Outsiders. The latest gem I've discovered is their DVOA Playoff Odds Report. Basically, FO has played out the season 5,000 times using an equation based on their metrics plus home-field advantage (take the time at some point to read their explanations of how their metrics are derived). Here's what they came up with:

Odds of Pittsburgh making the Playoffs = 94.1%

Odds of Steelers winning the AFC North = 79.7% - um, for those writers out there who aren't convinced that the Steelers are in the same class as the Bengals and Ravens yet? I dare you to take on FO's metrics.

Odds of Steelers securing #1 Seed in Playoffs = 36.9% - interestingly enough, only the New England Patriots are a safer bet to make the playoffs (99.1%), but Pittsburgh is still more likely to claim the top seed (36.9% vs. 34.4%).

A few more interesting nuggest from their projections: San Diego's got work to do. As of now, their likelihood at making the playoffs is a mere 21.8%. The Bengals better get after it as well. Their chances are 16.6% for the moment. Here was also a big shocker that I'd like to spend more time thinking about: Tampa Bay is slightly more likely than Indianapolis (10.5% vs. 9.3%) to win the Super Bowl

Oh, and by the way, Your Pittsburgh Steelers are, at the moment, the odds-on favorite to win the Super Bowl. Hey, it's just one computer's 'opinion', but I'd rather such prognostications be coming from an algorithem than a human's stream of consciousness.
This is what happens when you let a computer make calculations without entering all the relevant parameters.

Seriously, where do they get this stuff from?

1. Steelers have an 80% chance of winning the AFCN (after 3 games) - so that means the other 3 teams have only a 20% chance between them?

Sorry thats utter crap.

2. Tampa Bay (an NFC team lets remember) more likely to win the SB than last years Champs - the Colts?

Laughable.

I bet their 'metrics' fly up and down like a yo-yo after every game - if Pittsburgh lost against Arizona (which they wont) their odds of winning the AFCN would probably drop to about 50%.#

Simple common sense tells you that this all utter nonsense - give me a gut feeling everytime over such random bogus, knee-jerk metrics.
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Old 09-26-2007, 11:31 AM   #7
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Default Re: Steelers in the Playoffs?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Livinginthe past View Post
This is what happens when you let a computer make calculations without entering all the relevant parameters.

Seriously, where do they get this stuff from?

1. Steelers have an 80% chance of winning the AFCN (after 3 games) - so that means the other 3 teams have only a 20% chance between them?

Sorry thats utter crap.

2. Tampa Bay (an NFC team lets remember) more likely to win the SB than last years Champs - the Colts?

Laughable.

I bet their 'metrics' fly up and down like a yo-yo after every game - if Pittsburgh lost against Arizona (which they wont) their odds of winning the AFCN would probably drop to about 50%.#

Simple common sense tells you that this all utter nonsense - give me a gut feeling everytime over such random bogus, knee-jerk metrics.
Hmmmmmm...sounds vaguely like congress explaining the national budget.
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Old 09-26-2007, 11:47 AM   #8
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Default Re: Steelers in the Playoffs?

I hate this kind of talk.

I'm not pulling out my pom-poms till January.
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Old 09-26-2007, 12:06 PM   #9
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Default Re: Steelers in the Playoffs?

Unless the Cardinals are in the playoffs against us this Sunday...playoff talk now is not something we (the 5 rings) are interested in. Beat down the Cards, crush their running game, continue to excel and improve in all phases of the game. Then move on to game film of whatever team dared put us on their schedule. (I do know who is next but will not mention their name because until Sunday night, they are irrelevant.)
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Old 09-26-2007, 12:18 PM   #10
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Default Re: Steelers in the Playoffs?

Very nice article, but it's a bit premature to be putting the Steelers into the playoffs and beyond going into Week #4. While our Steelers have played championship-calibre football the past 3 weeks, there is still a long, LONG season ahead of us with some very formidable matchups. I'm not going to count my chickens before they're hatched.
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