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Old 09-26-2007, 04:36 PM   #21
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Default Re: Steelers in the Playoffs?

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Originally Posted by Livinginthe past View Post
I do realise im asking this question on a Steelers forum.
You're not going to the " realise im asking this question on a Steelers forum" card. That's like pulling out the "everybody cheats" card.

Probability is a rather simple result to vastly complex theories. Usually the simple answer isn't precise but more exact which is why the "+/- " is attached.

What is likely to happen is anyone's guess? But that's just not good enough for mathematicians. They need that likelihood to be represented by a numerical value.
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Old 09-26-2007, 05:52 PM   #22
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Default Re: Steelers in the Playoffs?

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Originally Posted by Haiku_Dirtt View Post
You're not going to the " realise im asking this question on a Steelers forum" card. That's like pulling out the "everybody cheats" card.

Probability is a rather simple result to vastly complex theories. Usually the simple answer isn't precise but more exact which is why the "+/- " is attached.

What is likely to happen is anyone's guess? But that's just not good enough for mathematicians. They need that likelihood to be represented by a numerical value.
Right.

So thats twice you've attempted to explain how probability works - as I said before - I know how it works.

What I am disputing is the values they come up with - if I say the Lions have an 85% chance of winning the SB this year it doesn't make it right just because mathmeticians like to see 'numerical values'.

So on that note - do you think that the Steelers would win this division 4 times out of 5 from this position, if you could rewind time and do just that?
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Old 09-26-2007, 06:18 PM   #23
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Default Re: Steelers in the Playoffs?

HA- can I be the obnoxious one who says, this week could be a SUPER BOWL preveiw?????????????

KIdding..........no seriously!
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Old 09-26-2007, 08:00 PM   #24
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Default Re: Steelers in the Playoffs?

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Right.

So thats twice you've attempted to explain how probability works - as I said before - I know how it works.

What I am disputing is the values they come up with - if I say the Lions have an 85% chance of winning the SB this year it doesn't make it right just because mathmeticians like to see 'numerical values'.

So on that note - do you think that the Steelers would win this division 4 times out of 5 from this position, if you could rewind time and do just that?
of course the article is bogus. Is the question your are asking, if the steelers started the season 3-0, and the ravens were 2-1, and cincy, was 1-2, and browns were 1-2,

and basically we rewind to this exact point, 5 times, yes? id say the steelers have a more than realistic shot at winning the division 4 out of 5 times.

I bet what throws the stats off, is that the steelers don't have a division loss, ravens browns, and bengals all do, ... wouldnt that be entered into some formula as steelers batting a 1.000 in the division while, at best, the rest are .500? i dunno, im just thinking.

win the division, with the defense cincy has, and the questions on offense from the ravens. no doubt, actually, 4 out of 5.
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Old 09-27-2007, 04:16 AM   #25
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Default Re: Steelers in the Playoffs?

[QUOTE=Livinginthe past;299983] - I know how it works.

What I am disputing is the values they come up with -QUOTE]

OKAY. I'm LONG ETF tickers MZZ and QID which means I'm ULTRA SHORT the S&P 400 and QQQ. I'm betting for an ugly downturn before Thanksgiving.

The beauty in disputing values (as I do) is in the opportunity. The ONLY reason this is a topic is because people are making bets.

The values they come up with are historical to a degree. Disputing values is where the money is made. But they have to give us a number to work with so choices can be made.

Why are you so shocked that a team w/ a 3-0 record has a better chance to win the division? Add to the equation that management has a track record. It's rare but betting the Steelers to win the Big One could be a bet that will outpace US GDP in 2008.
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Old 09-27-2007, 11:08 AM   #26
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Default Re: Steelers in the Playoffs?

Statistics, Probability, Numeric value this stuff is enough to make me go crossed eyed. I say lets watch and enjoy the whole season the we will know who actually made the playoffs then we can see how close this article was besides it is only September and the season goes by way too quick to be talking playoffs now.
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Old 09-27-2007, 01:40 PM   #27
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Default Re: Steelers in the Playoffs?

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Statistics, Probability, Numeric value this stuff is enough to make me go crossed eyed. I say lets watch and enjoy the whole season the we will know who actually made the playoffs then we can see how close this article was besides it is only September and the season goes by way too quick to be talking playoffs now.
You really want to go crosseyed?

Wait till a few more games are played, then take the point totals of this year and T-test them against the last few years in a 2-tale test to see if Tomlin has made a statistically significant change in the offensive effectiveness. Then do the same with the defense.

If both those resulting number are statistically significant, then Tomlin has been effective over Cowher, and can be said that he has made a change with 95% probability!

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Old 09-27-2007, 02:06 PM   #28
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Default Re: Steelers in the Playoffs?

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You really want to go crosseyed?

Wait till a few more games are played, then take the point totals of this year and T-test them against the last few years in a 2-tale test to see if Tomlin has made a statistically significant change in the offensive effectiveness. Then do the same with the defense.

If both those resulting number are statistically significant, then Tomlin has been effective over Cowher, and can be said that he has made a change with 95% probability!


You lost me at "You really want to go crosseyed?"
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Old 09-27-2007, 02:41 PM   #29
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Default Re: Steelers in the Playoffs?

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Originally Posted by Preacher View Post
You really want to go crosseyed?

Wait till a few more games are played, then take the point totals of this year and T-test them against the last few years in a 2-tale test to see if Tomlin has made a statistically significant change in the offensive effectiveness. Then do the same with the defense.

If both those resulting number are statistically significant, then Tomlin has been effective over Cowher, and can be said that he has made a change with 95% probability!

Gawd - just had a bad flashback to my college stats course, especially with the mention of the good ol' "T" and "2-tailed" tests.
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Old 09-27-2007, 03:24 PM   #30
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Default Re: Steelers in the Playoffs?

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Gawd - just had a bad flashback to my college stats course, especially with the mention of the good ol' "T" and "2-tailed" tests.


Yeah...

Funny story. I was a bible major, master of divinity, doctor of ministry. I had NO use nor need for math. The only math I had to take was a course in astronomy for a science credit. The math was pretty easy.

So I am sitting in my last seminar (my doctoral seminars were one week deals, 8-5, with night study or classes when necessary).

Out of the blue... WHACK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! A two hour lecture on statistics and how we need to use statistical analysis to measure the effectiveness of our doctoral projects.

I JUST ABOUT FELL OVER DEAD!!!

One class away from NEVER having to go to school again, free from math since highschool.....

and WHACK. I was so mad!
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