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Old 06-16-2008, 05:43 PM   #1
tony hipchest
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Default what to expect w/o faneca

i tend to be a bit more optomistic than this article is, but it is definitely food for thought.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story;jsessi...o&confirm=true

Quote:
Faneca could be latest guard to have big impact on new team
By Pat Kirwan | NFL.com
Senior Analyst


Sometimes it feels like everyone talks about left tackles on offense as if they are the only linemen that count. Ruben Brown has been to nine Pro Bowls but he's hardly in the conversation as a Hall of Fame candidate. Larry Allen struggles to keep up with Jonathan Ogden when I pose the question about who deserves to be a first-ballot Hall of Famer.

Elite guards Larry Allen, Steve Hutchinson and Eric Steinbach each changed teams recently and all three had a big impact on their new clubs. Can the Jets' Alan Faneca figure to have a similar impact on the Jets next season?

Well, the question entering the 2008 season when it comes to offensive guards is actually a two-parter: How much will the Steelers miss Alan Faneca and how much improvement can the Jets expect to have with Faneca in their lineup?

To project the answer to these questions, I went back and looked at three elite guards who recently left their original teams and moved on for financial reasons. Larry Allen left the Cowboys after the 2005 season for the 49ers; Steve Hutchinson left the Seahawks for the Vikings after the 2005 season; and Eric Steinbach bolted from the Bengals after 2006 for division-rival Cleveland. The outcome of these three departures should be a good indicator of the impact Faneca will have in 2008.

It may also be a hint as to what the Giants have to consider with Chris Snee coming to the end of his contract in 2008.

In 2005, the last season Allen played for the Cowboys, Dallas ranked 13th as a rushing club in the NFL. In 2006, they remained the 13th-ranked rushing team and continued to rush the ball at 3.7 yards per carry. Not much of an impact on the Cowboys when they let Allen go -- but his impact on the 49ers offense was significant. The year before Allen arrived in the Bay Area, the 49ers were the 17th-ranked rushing team. Allen's first season saw the team jump all the way up to no. 6 rushing the football.

In 2005, the Seahawks were the no. 3 rushing team and most of the running plays were designed to follow Hutchinson. The year after he left for Minnesota, the Seahawks dropped to 14th and the rushing average dropped from 4.7 yards per carry to 4.0. Hutchinson's arrival in Minnesota in 2006 spiked the Vikings' running game, which was no. 27 before he got to there, to 16th in his first season at guard.

When Steinbach left the Bengals, they continued to be a below-average running team, but the Browns went from no. 31 in the league to 10th -- and Steinbach led the way on many of those plays.

The Steelers were the third-best rushing team with Faneca sealing the point of attack either as a pulling guard on plays to the right or drive blocking on runs to the left. Can the Steelers keep up their rich rushing tradition without Faneca? The Seahawks couldn't without Hutchinson and, like Pittsburgh, they were the third-ranked rushing team when their All Pro guard led the way.

It appears the Steelers will probably drop off. As for the Jets, they should expect their running game to jump from 19th to somewhere closer to 12th. Thomas Jones should have a lot more good-sized holes to run through with Faneca blocking the point of attack. The average jump in league ranking when the elite guards switched teams was 14 spots in the team ranking in the first year , so a Jets move of seven spots could be considered conservative.
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Old 06-16-2008, 06:48 PM   #2
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Default Re: what to expect w/o faneca

I believe that. The only thing is they may have the 7th best rushing attack instead of the 3rd and an improved passing game because Arians likes that game anyways.

The smart thing to do is establish the line early in camp, get them working together and call the game to their skills.....not the skills you had when Faneca was there.
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Old 06-16-2008, 06:58 PM   #3
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Default Re: what to expect w/o faneca

the jets IMO are oozing with talent on their o-line...i think something like 4 of their projected starters are all 1st round draft picks...

and as gonzo pointed out our rushing game will only drop due to the continued emergence of BR and the amount of talent we currently have at WR
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Old 06-16-2008, 07:46 PM   #4
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Default Re: what to expect w/o faneca

Got to agree....as much as we hate to admit it, the NFL has become a pass-to-set-up-the-run league and we're falling in line. I see us with a lot more 3-4 wr sets this year.
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Old 06-16-2008, 07:50 PM   #5
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Default Re: what to expect w/o faneca

Shawn Alexander injured his foot the year after Hutch left the Squaks, and it was early in the season, too, late September, I believe. That probably made a bit of a difference, no?

But the article made no mention of that.

And the Browns had pretty much a bunch of nobodies running the ball before Steinbach got there. Coincidence that they actually had a decent RB in Jamal Lewis when their stock improved?

Shoddy reporting at best.
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Old 06-16-2008, 08:48 PM   #6
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Default Re: what to expect w/o faneca

If we could view the loss of a lineman in a fish bowl then I imagine we could contribute the success of a team and failure of another to the loss of one important player. Truth be told though, there is much more to the success and failures of each of the teams the author used to establish how things will turn out surrounding Faneca's departure.

I don't mean to suggest that Seattle would have been the same with Hutchinson in 2006, but likewise, he can't ignore injuries and the like to be a source in the loss of production. The loss of Fanceca will have an impact, but the removal of Mahan will too.
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Old 06-17-2008, 12:20 AM   #7
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Default Re: what to expect w/o faneca

Quote:
Originally Posted by revefsreleets View Post

Shoddy reporting at best.
lol.

well, kirwan is hardly a reporter, which is why id give much more credence to the analysis, insight, and opinion to him, than someone like adam schefter.

while the likes of e. bouchette and p. king are on vacation in the "off season", somebody is providing research and recent historical data to support their opinion that the steelers rushing game will not improve from 3rd best, in '08. im pretty sure the addition of faneca will only help the rushing game of the jets.

....and walter jones + hutchinson made alexander, not vice versa (bum ankle or not).
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Old 06-17-2008, 03:57 AM   #8
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Default Re: what to expect w/o faneca

Two years from now... maybe three... though I doubt it, people will be once again wondering how the Rooney's gaze into their crystal ball and see the end of a players career before even the player does.

Fanaca blew too many places last year for his departure to be the disruption to the run game that it is being made out to be.
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Old 06-17-2008, 11:53 AM   #9
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Default Re: what to expect w/o faneca

During the Baltimore game last year when we was resting certain players Kemoeatu looked a whole hell of a lot better then Faneca did in that game or most of the season. Might not mean anything but Kemo is the key to the O line this year. Its kinda wierd to think about but a 11-5 team could have 3 new starters on the O line alone. We will be better then people expect but losing Faneca is a blow.
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Old 06-17-2008, 02:24 PM   #10
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Default Re: what to expect w/o faneca

There were times when Faneca was as much a turnstyle as anyone else. However, it will be a blow to lose him
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