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Old 07-16-2008, 01:33 AM   #1
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Default AccuScore: How would teams fare with Favre?

Thought this was interesting:

Quote:
AccuScore: How would teams fare with Favre?
By AccuScore
8 hours, 45 minutes ago

AccuScore.com has run more than 10,000 simulations for Yahoo! Sports, calculating how each team’s performance changes in response to game conditions, opponent’s abilities, roster moves, weather and more. Each game is simulated one play at a time and the game is replayed a minimum of 10,000 times to generate forecasted winning percentages, player statistics and a variety of game-changing scenarios. Here’s AccuScore.com’s analysis of what type of impact Brett Favre would have if he returns to the NFL this season.

AccuScore’s NFL simulator was used to analyze how much Brett Favre would help a variety of teams rumored to be possible destinations. The simulations do not expect Favre to have as much impact on other teams as one might expect simply because he would be joining a team just months before the start of the season. It obviously takes far more than eight weeks to master a new offense.

CHICAGO AND MINNESOTA – NO WAY PACKERS ALLOW THIS

At this point it looks like the Green Bay Packers are welcoming Favre to return as a backup. Here’s why they would never allow him to sign with a division rival like the Chicago Bears or Minnesota Vikings. AccuScore has simulated every game of the 2008 season 10,000 times to calculate the probability of each team winning their division or making the playoffs as a wild card. AccuScore’s baseline forecast for the NFC North has the Vikings with the best chance of winning the division and making the playoffs. The Vikings’ strong running game and improved pass rush gives them a +7 percent edge on the defending NFC North champs, Green Bay. AccuScore does expect Green Bay to make the playoffs as a wild card (sixth in the NFC).

Even though Green Bay is forecasted for second in the division, the gap would widen to a 40-percentage point difference if Favre went to Minnesota.

Baseline Playoffs Win div Favre to Minn Playoffs Win div
Minnesota Vikings 59% 45% Vikings 78% 65%
Green Bay Packers 52% 38% Packers 44% 24%
Chicago Bears 19% 11% Bears 17% 7%
Detroit Lions 11% 6% Lions 9% 4%
Copyright AccuScore.com

The Bears are winning the division just 11 percent of the time in simulations and are not expected to make the playoffs. However, if Favre joined Chicago, the Bears are expected to win the NFC North.

Favre to Chicago Playoffs Win division
Bears 56% 39%
Vikings 49% 33%
Packers 41% 25%
Lions 8% 3%
Copyright AccuScore.com

TAMPA BAY, WASHINGTON AND ARIZONA

These numbers only confirm what the Packers’ management already knows. They could never let Favre go to a division rival. Some other possible NFC destinations include the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Washington Redskins and Arizona Cardinals. Interestingly, Tampa Bay is not seeing a significant bump with Favre starting. Projected Bucs starter Jeff Garcia was a Pro Bowler last year thanks to his highly accurate passing and ability to minimize interceptions. Tampa Bay’s playoff chances only increased by two percentage points with Favre starting.

Washington’s chances of making the playoffs increase by over 10 percentage points (18 percent to 29). However, the NFC East is extremely competitive with defending division champion Dallas Cowboys, defending Super Bowl champion, New York Giants, and the always dangerous Philadelphia Eagles. Even though the Redskins would be better, the chances of Favre leading the team to the playoffs is unlikely. In other words, Favre probably would not want to end his career on a team finishing third in their division.

The Cardinals do get a big boost in performance with Favre. The upgrade from Matt Leinart is enormous and Arizona’s chances of making the playoffs nearly double from 24 percent in the baseline to 47 with Favre. The Cardinals would be better off with Favre and he would have a legitimate chance of competing in the playoffs. However, Green Bay would nix this possibility since a more competitive Cardinals team could cost Green Bay their spot in the playoffs. Or, if both teams make the playoffs they could find themselves facing Favre which is also a situation they would want to avoid.

Baseline Playoffs Win division With Favre Playoffs Win division
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 45% 34% Buccaneers 47% 36%
Washington Redskins 18% 3% Redskins 29% 7%
Arizona Cardinals 24% 19% Cardinals 47% 35%
Copyright AccuScore.com

RAVENS ARE A GOOD FIT

Green Bay would be wise to focus solely on AFC teams that they do not face in the regular season to avoid Favre unless they meet in the postseason. Two seasons ago, Steve McNair was dumped by the Tennessee Titans and signed with the Ravens. Despite not being nearly as good as he was at his peak, the Ravens won 13 games. Injuries and horrific turnover problems caused the Ravens to drastically dip in 2007 and McNair subsequently retired at season’s end. However, when healthy, the defense is still a Top 5 unit and Willis McGahee was eighth in the league in rushing last season. Favre may have to learn a new system, but so does everyone else in Baltimore with coach John Harbaugh taking over for a fired Brian Billick in the offseason. He is obviously a gigantic upgrade this season over Kyle Boller, Troy Smith and rookie Joe Flacco. If the Ravens’ defense and TE Todd Heap are healthy in ‘08, AccuScore expects the Ravens to win seven games with a 17 percent chance of making the playoffs. However, if Favre led the team they would have a 38 percent chance of making the playoffs. While this figure is not as high as other teams with Favre, it would be good enough for the sixth-highest percentage in the AFC.

Teams Playoff chances
New England Patriots 98.73%
Indianapolis Colts 90.46%
San Diego Chargers 83.28%
Jacksonville Jaguars 77.18%
Pittsburgh Steelers 73.02%
Baltimore Ravens 33.95%
Copyright AccuScore.com

AccuScore recommends the Ravens pursue Favre in a trade because they have an aging team and should look at him as a last chance of getting back to the Super Bowl. Green Bay should be receptive to dealing him to Baltimore because they would only face him in the Super Bowl. Favre should consider Baltimore because he could be a hero for a city that is devoted to the Ravens during football season and unlike Green Bay, no city has been more quarterback starved than Baltimore since the team moved from Cleveland.
I personally would love the last option. Because then Harrison, Timmons, Farrior & Woodley could lay Favre on his butt twice this year.
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Old 07-16-2008, 03:30 AM   #2
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Default Re: AccuScore: How would teams fare with Favre?

I just can't imagine Farve being a ratbird I would not have the same respect for him as I once did.
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Old 07-16-2008, 07:55 AM   #3
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Default Re: AccuScore: How would teams fare with Favre?

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I just can't imagine Farve being a ratbird I would not have the same respect for him as I once did.
I'd lose all respect for him at that point.

The conversation would go something like this:

"Favre, yeah I use to have a lot of respect for him until he sold his soul to play football for the ratbirds. His only legacy now is that he was a rat with wings, I don't care what he did in greenbay!"
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Old 07-16-2008, 08:25 AM   #4
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Default Re: AccuScore: How would teams fare with Favre?

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I just can't imagine Farve being a ratbird I would not have the same respect for him as I once did.
There is nothing Favre could do with regard to his career where I would lose respect for him. If the Pack are going to go with Rodgers (the second coming of Cliff Stoudt ) and he doesn't want to remain as a backup, I say go for it Brett. Whichever team is going to put him into the starting role for the highest price is where he should (and probably will) go if the Pack releases him from his obligations. However, I do think Favre would be a bit choosy about wanting to play for a team with good character and the Rats most definitely do not fit that description. I'd like to see him with the Vikes.

If he does end up playing for one of our opponents this season, which is a crap shoot at this point, I'd love nothing more than to see our D make him into a turf pizza repeatedly.
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Old 07-16-2008, 08:37 AM   #5
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Default Re: AccuScore: How would teams fare with Favre?

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There is nothing Favre could do with regard to his career where I would lose respect for him. If the Pack are going to go with Rodgers (the second coming of Cliff Stoudt ) and he doesn't want to remain as a backup, I say go for it Brett. Whichever team is going to put him into the starting role for the highest price is where he should (and probably will) go if the Pack releases him from his obligations. However, I do think Favre would be a bit choosy about wanting to play for a team with good character and the Rats most definitely do not fit that description. I'd like to see him with the Vikes.

If he does end up playing for one of our opponents this season, which is a crap shoot at this point, I'd love nothing more than to see our D make him into a turf pizza repeatedly.

Great post HTG....I disagree with one thing though. I'd like to win against Favre, but to "make him into a turf pizza repeatedly" would not be on my priority list. I can't believe the fairweather statements coming from Steeler fans. Was this the same reaction when Franco went to Seattle in '84? Is Franco still looked at as a rat bum who sold us out? I don't think so and I'd care to bet that the majority of Steeler Nation doesn't either. I don't see how anyone could lose respect for the iconic Favre. I'll have my popcorn ready for when I watch Rodgers fall flat on his face.
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Old 07-16-2008, 09:36 AM   #6
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Default Re: AccuScore: How would teams fare with Favre?

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Great post HTG....I disagree with one thing though. I'd like to win against Favre, but to "make him into a turf pizza repeatedly" would not be on my priority list. I can't believe the fairweather statements coming from Steeler fans. Was this the same reaction when Franco went to Seattle in '84? Is Franco still looked at as a rat bum who sold us out? I don't think so and I'd care to bet that the majority of Steeler Nation doesn't either. I don't see how anyone could lose respect for the iconic Favre. I'll have my popcorn ready for when I watch Rodgers fall flat on his face.
By "making him into a turf pizza repeatedly", I simply meant the Steelers D sacking him as much as possible (not to cause injury) should we face him. This is on my wish list no matter who the Steelers play.

I don't believe any true Steelers fan feels that Franco sold us out in '84 when he went to the Waaaaahawks. Like Favre, he still felt he had some gas in his tank and he moved on. The difference is that Franco was one of our beloved Steelers and though I respect Favre immensely (as has been well stated), he will become the enemy whenever our Steelers play any team where he is behind center.
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Old 07-16-2008, 10:00 AM   #7
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Default Re: AccuScore: How would teams fare with Favre?

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I can't believe the fairweather statements coming from Steeler fans.
What fairweather statements? Although I admire Favre and what he's meant to the league, I couldn't care less what he does. He doesn't play for the Steelers, and he's never played for the Steelers. I simply don't care. I'm glad it's not my franchise and heartstrings he's been jerking around every offseason for about the last 5 years now, I will say that much.
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Old 07-16-2008, 10:20 AM   #8
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Default Re: AccuScore: How would teams fare with Favre?

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I just can't imagine Farve being a ratbird I would not have the same respect for him as I once did.
What if (as the story indicates) he's traded to the Ravens? Do you still lose respect because the Packers sent him away? Don't get me wrong, I'm not a fan of what he's doing, it's shed a whole new light (for me) on the real Brett Favre persona. But I don't simply lose respect because he goes to one of my rivals via a Trade.

I lose respect for him because he's playing this stupid retirement/unretirement game with a City that's been about as loyal as one can be to a guy who's (basically) supposed to be a living legend.
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Old 07-16-2008, 01:09 PM   #9
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Default Re: AccuScore: How would teams fare with Favre?

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Originally Posted by LambertIsGod58 View Post
Great post HTG....I disagree with one thing though. I'd like to win against Favre, but to "make him into a turf pizza repeatedly" would not be on my priority list. I can't believe the fairweather statements coming from Steeler fans. Was this the same reaction when Franco went to Seattle in '84? Is Franco still looked at as a rat bum who sold us out? I don't think so and I'd care to bet that the majority of Steeler Nation doesn't either. I don't see how anyone could lose respect for the iconic Favre. I'll have my popcorn ready for when I watch Rodgers fall flat on his face.
I don't recall Franco retiring and then coming out of retirement to play. He was let go by the Steelers, then went to seattle to play. Entirely two different situations.

Basically, I can do without all the damn drama from Favre.
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Old 07-16-2008, 01:26 PM   #10
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Default Re: AccuScore: How would teams fare with Favre?

Favre with the ravens

I guess it would be kind of like mcnair with the rats, you respect the guy, till he starts beating you.

but seriously, who wants to be a raven? the dolphins beat them
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