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Old 12-12-2008, 06:45 PM   #1
HereWeGoSteelers219
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Default Division Race Scenario's and Tiebreakers

Basically, I'm making this thread to explain to everybody the "What If" Scenarios for the AFC North Divison, and by looking at this, it shows why the Steelers have an upper hand on Baltimore, despite the current record. Also, I am making this assuming that both teams will win in Week 17 against the Browns and Jaguars.

First, the division tiebreakers are:

1. Head to Head
2. Division Record
3. Common Games Record
4. AFC Record
5. Strength of Victory

So, obviously if the Steelers win this Sunday, we clinch the division. But, if we lose, and the Ravens beat Dallas in Dallas on a primetime Saturday night, which is doubtul, and we lose to the Titans, Baltimore wins the division.

Now, if Baltimore beats us, both teams will be tied at 10-4. Then, if we beat the Titans, and Baltimore beats Dallas, we win the division because the common games record will be tied since we lost to Philly and beat Dallas, and they beat Philly but lost to Dallas. Then, we will have the better AFC record since we only lost to the Colts and Ravens, but they lost to the Steelers, Colts, and Titans.

Next, it gets very complicated if the Ravens beat us this weekend, and both teams lose to the Cowboys and Titans. Both teams will have 11-5 records. Remember, I am assuming both teams win in Week 17. The head to head will be tied, the division record will be tied at 5-1, the common opponents record will be tied at 9-5, the AFC records will be tied at 9-3, so it will have to go all the way down to Strength of Victory. Alls we have to do is look at the different games each team won from the other. So, for us it would be the Patriots, Chargers, and Cowboys, and for the Ravens it would be the Dolphins, Raiders, and Eagles. After looking at the teams schedules, even if you put the worst case scenario in terms of those teams winning or losing, we will still come out on top.

Steelers

New England Patriots
Remaining Schedule:

@ Oakland - Win
Arizona - Loss
@ Buffalo - Win

Final Record: 10-6

San Diego Chargers
Remaining Schedule:

@ Kansas City - Win
@ Tampa Bay - Loss
Denver - Loss

Final Record: 6-10

Dallas Cowboys
Remaining Schedule:

NY Giants - Loss
Baltimore - Win
@ Philadelphia - Loss

Final Record: 9-7

Overall Opponents Record: 25-23

Ravens

Miami Dolphins
Remaining Schedule:

San Francisco - Win
@ Kansas City - Win
@ NY Jets - Win

Final Record: 11-5

Oakland Raiders
Remaining Schedule:

New England - Loss
Houston - Loss
@ Tampa Bay - Loss

Final Record: 3-13

Philadelphia Eagles
Remaining Schedule:

Cleveland - Win
@ Washington - Win
Dallas - Win

Final Record: 10-5-1

Overall Opponents Record: 24-23-1

So, even after clearly giving the Ravens opponents the upper hand in most of these games, our Strength of Victory will be better than theirs, barring any huge upsets. Also, if it comes down to this, the Ravens will end up getting screwed by the Raiders, who drasticaly bring down their winning percentage.


So, the only way the Steelers can lose the division is if we lose to the Ravens and Titans, while the Ravens beat us and the Cowboys, since we have the advantage in the tiebreakers.
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Old 12-12-2008, 07:07 PM   #2
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Default Re: Division Race Scenario's and Tiebreakers

Well then we just need to beat the Ravens this Sunday at put all this to rest. Nice job breaking it all down man. :-)
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Old 12-12-2008, 08:42 PM   #3
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Default Re: Division Race Scenario's and Tiebreakers

Very nice analysis.
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Old 12-12-2008, 09:24 PM   #4
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Default Re: Division Race Scenario's and Tiebreakers

That is an awesome breakdown, HereWeGo! Thanks!

I'm with the consensus here. Win this Sunday and the AFCN crown is ours once again!
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Old 12-12-2008, 11:49 PM   #5
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Default Re: Division Race Scenario's and Tiebreakers

>>> 2008 NFL Playoff Scenarios

By James Alder, About.com


NFL playoff scenarios for week 15 of the 2008 season.

NFC
CLINCHED
NY Giants, Arizona

ELIMINATED: Detroit, St. Louis, San Francisco, Seattle

NEW YORK GIANTS

Can clinch a first-round bye with:

1. a win or tie, OR
2. a Minnesota loss plus and Atlanta loss or tie, OR
3. a Minnesota loss plus a Carolina win or tie, OR
4. the Minnesota-Arizona game ends in a tie.

Minnesota Vikings

Can clinch the NFC North Division title with:

1. a win and a Chicago loss

Tampa Bay

can clinch a playoff spot with:

1. a win plus a Dallas loss or tie, OR
2. a win plus a Philadelphia loss or tie.

Carolina

can clinch a playoff spot with:

1. a win plus a Dallas loss or tie, OR
2. a win or tie plus an Atlanta loss or tie, OR
3. a tie plus a Dallas loss and a Philadelphia loss or tie, OR
4. a loss plus a Dallas DAL loss and a Washington loss or tie, OR
5. an Atlanta loss plus a Dallas loss and a Chicago loss or tie, OR
6. an Atlanta loss plus a Philadelphia loss and a Washington loss or tie and a Chicago loss or tie.

AFC

CLINCHED:
Tennessee

ELIMINATED: Cincinnati, Cleveland, Houston, Jacksonville, Kansas City, Oakland

TENNESSEE TITANS

Can clinch homefield advantage throughout the playoffs with:

1. a win plus a Pittsburgh loss or tie, OR
2. a tie plus a Pittsburgh loss.

DENVER BRONCOS

Can clinch an AFC West Division title with:

1. a win or tie, OR
2. a San Diego loss or tie.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Can clinch the AFC North Division and a first-round bye with:

1. a win.

Can clinch a playoff spot with:

1. a tie plus a New England loss or tie, OR
2. a tie plus a Miami loss or tie and a NY Jets loss or tie, OR
3. a New England loss and a NY Jets loss or tie, OR
4. a New England loss plus a Miami loss or tie, OR
5. a NY Jets loss plus a Miami loss.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Can clinch a playoff spot with:

1. a win plus a New England loss and NY Jets loss or tie, OR
2. a win plus a New England loss and a Miami loss or tie, OR
3. a win plus a Miami loss and a NY Jets loss.

BALTIMORE RAVENS

Can clinch a playoff spot with:

1. a win plus a New England loss and a NY Jets loss or tie, OR
2. a win plus a New England loss and a Miami loss or tie, OR
3. a win plus a Miami loss and a NY Jets loss and an Indianapolis loss or tie, OR
4. a win plus a Miami loss and a NY Jets loss and Indianapolis clinches strength of victory tiebreaker over MIA. <<<
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Old 12-13-2008, 12:02 AM   #6
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Default Re: Division Race Scenario's and Tiebreakers

yea, the easiest way 2 do this, is 2 win this weekend and then we don't have 2 wry... ? if we win this weekend, we most likely will rest our starters in 17, but if the titans do lose this weekend, then we beat them the following week, i don't think we rest our players that much
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Old 12-13-2008, 03:44 AM   #7
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Default Re: Division Race Scenario's and Tiebreakers

I would like to just whip Baltimores ass this weekend and clinch the division I think Pittsburgh will go into this game with there head screwed on straight and come out with a win.
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Old 12-13-2008, 12:09 PM   #8
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Default Re: Division Race Scenario's and Tiebreakers

Great post and thanks for sharing. Bottom line is we just have to win on Sunday. Take care of business against the Rats and nothing else matters.
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