Why register with the Steelers Fever Forums?
 • Intelligent and friendly discussions.
 • It's free and it's quick. Always.
 • Enter events in the forums calendar.
 • Very user friendly software.
 • Exclusive contests and giveaways.

 Donate to Steelers Fever, Click here
 Our 2013 Goal: $400.00 - To Date: $00.00 (00.00%)
 Home | Forums | Editorials | Shop | Tickets | Downloads | Contact Pittsburgh Steelers Forum Feed Not Just Fans. Hardcore Fans.

Go Back   Steelers Fever Forums > Steelers Football > Pittsburgh Steelers


Steelers Fever Fan Shop

Doc's Sports Get FREE NFL Picks and College Football picks as well as Football Lines like live NFL Lines and updated NFL Power Rankings all at Doc's Sports Service.

Steelers Steelers - Giants Giants
August 9th, 2014, 7:30pmET

CBS
Reply
 
Thread Tools
Old 01-30-2009, 06:53 AM   #1
mesaSteeler
A Son of Martha
Supporter
 

Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: Mesa, Arizona
Posts: 7,976
Gender: Male
Member Number: 10438
Thanks: 0
Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts
Default ACCUSCORE ANALYSIS: Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Arizona Cardinals

ACCUSCORE ANALYSIS: Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Arizona Cardinals
http://www3.signonsandiego.com/stori.../?zIndex=45114

By Stephen Oh

4:49 p.m. January 29, 2009

AccuScore runs 10,000 computer simulations of NFL games, one play at a time, to project likely outcomes. Here is its assessment of Sunday's Super Bowl.

The Steelers won 68.9 percent of AccuScore's simulations by an average score of 27-20. The simulations have pinpointed the key reasons Pittsburgh is favored and what it will take for Arizona to pull off the upset.

KEYS FOR PITTSBURGH

PRESSURE LIMITS 'WARNER-TO-FITZGERALD'

The Eagles defense is good, and showed in the second half of the NFC Championship game that you can blitz Kurt Warner and largely shut down the Cardinals offense. But the Steelers defense is much better. The Eagles allowed at least 23 points seven times this season (regular season and playoffs) and allowed 30-plus three times. The Steelers gave up 24 or more points just three times (24 to Indianapolis, 30 to Tennessee and 24 to the Chargers in the playoffs).

Unlike Philly, the Steelers defense can pressure Warner while also stopping the run. The Steelers will learn from Philadelphia's mistakes. They will force Warner to dump more passes to his running backs and tight ends to avoid taking vicious hits.

Cardinals running backs Edgerrin James and Tim Hightower are averaging a combined four receptions per simulation for just six yards per reception. The two had just two catches against Philadelphia as Warner had enough time (in the first half) to get the ball to Larry Fitzgerald.

Fitzgerald caught 43 percent of Arizona's completed passes against Philadelphia. The simulations show the Steelers are holding him to 29 percent.

The table below shows that if the offensive line can protect Warner and if Fitzgerald has more than 40 percent of the team's receptions (a 37 percent likelihood) then the Cardinals' chances jump from 31 percent to 44 percent.

Larry Fitzgerald ; %Chance ; %Rec. ; Rec. ; Yds. ; TD ; Win %

Baseline ; – ; 29% ; 6.9 ; 97.9 ; 0.8 ; 31%

Warner given time ; 37% ; 42% ; 9.6 ; 136.9 ; 1.1 ; 44%

ROETHLISBERGER CAN BE PROLIFIC

Kurt Warner has the reputation as the more prolific passer, but Ben Roethlisberger is actually averaging better numbers in simulations.

QB comparison ; Cmp.; Att.; Pct.; Yds.; TD; Int.; Rat.

Roethlisberger ; 19.8; 31.4; 63.1; 268 ; 2.2; 1.1; 98.3

Warner ; 23.4; 39.4; 59.4; 257 ; 1.6; 1.3; 78.3

While Warner had a much better season statistically, Roethlisberger faced a far more difficult schedule. Rattling off the Steelers' opponents this season can intimidate a QB (Baltimore twice, Philadelphia, Dallas, Tennessee, the Giants).

List some of Warner's opponents and you get the likes of the 32nd-ranked Seattle Seahawks twice, the 29th-ranked Jets pass defense and the 25th-ranked Dolphins defense.

Roethlisberger's opposing pass defenses had an average ranking of 11.4 vs. 17.3 for Warner's. For comparison's sake the 11th-ranked pass defense was New England, the 17th-ranked was the Houston Texans. If you had a fantasy QB, would you rather have him face New England or Houston?

Roethlisberger played 13 of 16 games against teams ranked in the Top 16 against the pass, Warner only seven.

Roethlisberger's average passer rating was higher against the bottom half of the league than Warner's. While Warner had the higher rating against Top 16 opponents, he did not have to play as many games against Top 10 defenses (four) as Roethlisberger (eight).

; ;; Vs. Top 16 ;; Vs. Bottom 16

QB comparison ; Avg.Opp.Rank;; G ; Rat; ;; G ; Rat.

Roethlisberger ; 11.4 ;; 13 ; 72.3 ;; 3 ; 114.7

Warner ; 17.3 ;; 7 ; 82.9 ;; 9 ; 107.7

Given that Roethlisberger will be facing the 22nd-ranked Cardinals pass defense and Warner will be up against the top-ranked Steelers defense, it should not be surprising to see Roethlisberger coming out with better stats in simulations.

KEYS FOR ARIZONA

It does not take a supercomputer simulation to tell you that if Roethlisberger has six turnovers like Carolina's Jake Delhomme, the Cardinals have a great chance of winning. Instead of focusing on highly unlikely scenarios, AccuScore has pinpointed three realistically achievable statistical measures that, if all are achieved, would make Arizona the favorite to win.

CAN AZ. CONTINUE ITS INT'S? The Cardinals had 13 interceptions in 16 regular season games. They have nearly tripled that rate with seven in three playoff games. Simulations show how interceptions would affect the outcome of the game.

Roethlisberger INTs; %Chance; Az. win%

None ; 34.4%; 16.9%

1 or more ; 65.6%; 38.6%

2 or more ; 30.3%; 50.8%

It's unlikely that Roethlisberger will throw multiple interceptions, but the first step for Arizona's upset is to intercept Roethlisberger at least once.

CAN JAMES RUN FOR 3.9 YARDS A CARRY?

In three playoff games “The Edge” he has run well (68 yards per game, 3.9 yards per carry). But the Steelers' run defense is one of the best, and James is forecasted for only 44 yards on 14 carries (3.1 ypc). In simulations in which James averages 4.6 ypc, as he has twice in the playoffs, the Cardinals actually win 50.7 percent of the time. However, there is just a 31 percent chance that James can run this effectively against the Steelers.

Edgerrin James ; %Chance; Az. win%

Baseline (3.1 ypc); – ; 31.1%

James 3.9 ypc ; 58.0% ; 41.6%

James 4.6 ypc ; 31.2% ; 50.7%

More realistically, if James can average at least 3.9 ypc (his overall playoff and regular season average) against the great Steelers run defense, the Cardinals have a considerably better shot (win 41.6 percent). If James averages 3.9 ypc and Roethlisberger has at least one interception the Cardinals have a 49 percent chance of winning.

CAN WARNER AVOID SACKS?

The Steelers recorded 51 sacks this season (over three per game). If Warner is miraculously not sacked, the Cardinals nearly pull even with the Steelers with a 48 percent chance of winning. More realistically, the Cardinals need to hold the Steelers defense to two sacks or fewer to minimize the chance of a costly injury or turnover.

Kurt Warner sacks; %Chance; Az. win%

None ; 8.2% ; 48.4%

Two or fewer ; 53.7% ; 38.2%

Three or more ; 46.3% ; 23.0%

With reasonable pass protection, at last one Arizona interception and James having a good rushing performance, the Cardinals actually become the solid 58.8 percent favorite, winning by an average score of 26-23.
mesaSteeler is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-30-2009, 07:23 AM   #2
DACEB
Banned
 
DACEB's Avatar
 

Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 1,480
Gender: Male
Member Number: 2911
Thanks: 0
Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts
Default Re: ACCUSCORE ANALYSIS: Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Arizona Cardinals

Interesting stuff, mesa, thanks!

Simulation or not, it seems to give the match-ups some perspective.
DACEB is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-30-2009, 10:28 AM   #3
PGH_Futbol
Water Boy
 
PGH_Futbol's Avatar
 

Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: South Hills of Pittsburgh
Posts: 29
Gender: Male
Member Number: 11748
Thanks: 0
Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts
Default Re: ACCUSCORE ANALYSIS: Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Arizona Cardinals

Excellent. I love stats.

Stats. stats. stats...
PGH_Futbol is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-30-2009, 10:38 AM   #4
HometownGal
Living Legend
 
HometownGal's Avatar
 

Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: The Burgh
Posts: 21,479
Gender: Female
Member Number: 2413
Thanks: 0
Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts
Default Re: ACCUSCORE ANALYSIS: Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Arizona Cardinals

Me likey!

Thanks mesa!
__________________


The Anti-Wahoo
HometownGal is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-30-2009, 10:47 AM   #5
SteelersinCA
Team Owner
Supporter
 
SteelersinCA's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: San Diego, CA
Posts: 2,537
Gender: Male
Member Number: 9302
Thanks: 4
Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts
Default Re: ACCUSCORE ANALYSIS: Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Arizona Cardinals

The clock is nearing midnight on Cinderella and people know it!
SteelersinCA is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Bookmarks


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 01:03 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.4
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Shoutbox provided by vBShout v6.2.1 (Lite) - vBulletin Mods & Addons Copyright © 2014 DragonByte Technologies Ltd.
User Alert System provided by Advanced User Tagging v3.0.8 (Lite) - vBulletin Mods & Addons Copyright © 2014 DragonByte Technologies Ltd. Runs best on HiVelocity Hosting.
Navbar with Avatar by Motorradforum
no new posts