02-24-2009, 12:04 AM
Join Date: Jun 2006
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Re: 20 things that won't survive the crisis
... 11. The Strong Dollar
Face it, we may talk of a stimulus package today, but within a few years and after a few sequels, we may become known as the stimulus generation. The problem with stimulae is that they are like crack. Once you get a taste, it's hard to live without. What politician is going to take a weak economy that is has grown dependent on a few trill a year from the great money pot on the Potomac and put it at risk by turning off the spigot? So we either borrow or we print money. Other currencies step up. They won't replace us, but it will bea long, long time if ever before the dollar is what it once was.
12. The Miami Herald, the Detroit Free Press and...
So here's how the course will be taught in business schools: once upon a time, the newspaper industry decided to give away for free what they once sold. They went out ofbusiness. Get it? If not, check the home page of FP's parent company in a few years and see if the newspaper isn't being primarily used as a promotional give away to sell pimply-faced teenagers SAT prep classes. (Kaplan is the profitable part of the Washington Post empire.)
13. $11 Billion Helicopters for the President Seriously?
$11billion for foreign built helicopters for a president who has made a signature issue taking corporate jets away from supposedly profligate CEOs? Not.
14. Barack Obama's Haircut
Look at it closely. It is simply not presidential. We're not going to be able to make it through this crisis with something that looks like a six year old's first buzz cut. Remember Mr. President, it's not just your head anymore, it's a head of state.
15. John Boehner's Reputation as a Statesman
Ahahaha. Just kidding. Boehner would need a reputation transplant just to have one. I suspect he is able to wander anonymously at his own family reunions. But other congressional reputations will surely falter as those wonderful folks on the Hill reassert their claim to being the least branch of the government. And if future stimulus packages contain any more pork than the last one, Nancy Pelosi is going to have to hand over her gavel to Jimmy Dean.
16. A Navy Built Around Carrier Battle Groups...
...and the current Army-Marine Corps contest to see which is really our expeditionary force of choice, and all the other obsolete or redundant military spending philosophies that are a vestige of America's Era of Deep Pockets. Welcome to the Era of Limits. It's not just an issue for defense spenders, either. It's everybody's new reality.
17. The Bail Out Reflex
If the recent report that the top 20 bank recipients of Federal aid actually reduced their lending levels in the fourth quarter of 2008 doesn't do it for you, wait until the auto companies come back a third and a fourth time, or until you start looking at individual deals a little more closely. For example...where did the $150 billion we have pumped into AIG go?
18. The Idea That Green Was the Color of Expensive Oil
To all those who says low oil prices and the recession would kill the green revolution before it arrived, I hope you are paying attention. The president made green energy the center piece of his stimulus signing ceremony, the bill contains more money for greener more efficient energy than any in American history, another energy bill is promised this year and, significantly, the decision this week by the EPA to reopen whether or not to go after carbon under the Clean Air Act is a clear signal that before the next Congressional election, America will have started to set a price for carbon and create permanent legal incentives to embrace a new energy paradigm. This isthe one area of stimulus on which both parties agree, and its quite possibly a game-changer for the U.S. economy and for U.S. national security.
Not really. But it's a little scary that it has gotten this close. Scarier still when you consider that California is the seventh or eighth largest economy in the world (bigger than Canada). And they can't figure out how to generate enough revenue to run the government? Come on, it doesn't seem like they are really trying then, does it.
20. The Idea That You Can Change the Entire Mission of the U.S. Government Without Changing Its Structure
You get it, right? We now own banks, run auto companies, manage a fairly complex national industrial policy, will have to reinvent the international system, etc... and we don't have the people or the structures to handle these developments. We will try to do it without adding new phalanxes of officials of course, which will only screw things up. And then, gradually, we will reshape the government to meet these new needs thus (in some cases unfortunately) institutionalizing them.
Ok, that's 20. Now, over to you. Global changes? Careers that won't make it? Institutions that won't survive it? Don't leave me hanging here.
So what do you guys think?