Surprising Mock

[tony hipchest]

Originally Posted by St33lersguy

Oh sure that clearly reflects in that mock draft with him projecting the Steelers will pass up a top 20 player for a 2nd rounder in Jarron Gilbert. Also if he really thought Davis was the 2nd best corner then why does he predict he'll get drafted 10 picks behind another 2nd round player in Sean Smith? Of course did you even read the mock draft?
P.S.:Did you read where he says that Everette Brown goes to Chiefs &Y Curry goes to the Pack at #9 or the Texans getting a RB with pressing needs in the secondary & OLB, plus shouldn't the Seawhiners be thinking Raji if J.Smith & Monroe are off the board, the QB can wait for them.

i dont know how much research you do... maybe read a few mags, and study kipers and mayocks mock but i still gotta take kirwans analysis over yours-

1. Ebb and flow of draft picks
The draft is still more than a month away -- and many things can change between now and then -- but the more I talk with the coaches and scouts who are on the road visiting pro days and watching hours of game tape, the more of a sense I get about the shape of the first round.

There's no question that offensive line coaches feel very comfortable with Eugene Monroe and Jason Smith at the top of the draft. Both prospects have created a sense of comfort for the coaches, convincing them that they have the talent, temperament and character to play early and play well. You would be surprised how many coaches aren’t that interested in high first-round picks. These guys have to play early, and too many of them just aren’t ready. Monroe and Smith have overcome that issue, but Andre Smith, Michael Oher and Eben Britton still have questions.

Another trend is that there appears to be positive momentum among the group of pass rushers in the first round. In the last month, I keep hearing how much interest NFL people have with Everette Brown, Brian Orakpo, Aaron Maybin and even Michael Johnson. I think it’s fair to say that all four have moved up a few spots.

If those players are moving up, who is moving down? Outside of Malcolm Jenkins, it appears the cornerbacks group isn't holding in the top half of the draft. Vontae Davis, Alphonso Smith and D.J. Moore seem to falling to the bottom of the first round or into the second round. That could be good news for teams like the Tennessee Titans, Pittsburgh Steelers and a few others who pick late in the first round.

http://www.nfl.com/draft/story?id=09...s&confirm=true

remember, its the nfl peoples (executives, scouts, coaches) opinions that ultimately matter, not the mel kiper type talent evaluators.

Originally Posted by El-Gonzo Jackson

Yeah, but what does Kirwin really know?? Every year he writes an article that statistically proves about 3 percent of rookies start in the NFL.............but every alleged knowledgeable fan here thinks the guys we draft in rounds 1 and 2 are gonna improve our team immediately.

Then the calls of Timmons is a bust, Mendenhall is a bust, Sweed is a bust come out in year one ..............only to fade to a whimper in the 2nd season. Pat knows nothing!!

and right on cue, from yesterdays article linked above-

4. How teams did with rookies last year
Fans are starting to get excited about who their favorite team will select in the draft -- and with good reason. The draft can have an immediate impact on a team's roster. Last year, the Kansas City Chiefs were in a full-blown youth movement and got a total of 70 starts from their rookies. That's money in the bank for new GM Scott Pioli. The Denver Broncos, under Mike Shanahan, were second in the league with 44 rookie starts, which is terrific for their new regime.

The 2009 rookie class, much like last year's class, is not going to produce a lot of starts next season. Now, it's OK if your team didn't have a lot of rookie starts and won games -- like the Pittsburgh Steelers, who had one rookie start all season (running back Rashard Mendenhall). But if your team didn't play its rookies and lost a lot of games, that's a bad sign.

Here's a list of rookie starts for each team. For the Bears, Eagles and Jaguars, one player was responsible for all of the rookie starts (Matt Forte, DeSean Jackson and Derrick Harvey, respectively).

2008 rookie starts by team
NFC team Rookie starts AFC team Rookie starts
Arizona Cardinals 37 Baltimore Ravens 20
Atlanta Falcons 37 Buffalo Bills 17
Carolina Panthers 29 Cincinnati Bengals 24
Chicago Bears 16 Cleveland Browns 3
Dallas Cowboys 15 Denver Broncos 44
Detroit Lions 37 Houston Texans 36
Green Bay Packers 8 Indianapolis Colts 24
Minnesota Vikings 7 Jacksonville Jaguars 9
New Orleans Saints 31 Kansas City Chiefs 70
N.Y. Giants 7 Miami Dolphins 32
Philadelphia Eagles 15 New England Patriots 21
St. Louis Rams 31 N.Y. Jets 16
San Francisco 49ers 7 Oakland Raiders 11
Seattle Seahawks 24 Pittsburgh Steelers 1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 San Diego Chargers 6
Washington Redskins 14 Tennessee Titans 20

i wonder if its just coincidence that the team that had to rely on rookies the least was the team that won the superbowl (browns only had 3 starts).

i'll take 0 starts from our 09 rookie class if its an indicator of postseason success.

[SunshineMan21]

I'm not saying Kirwan isn't an intelligent commentator, but some of these picks are just terrible . . .

You really think if Vontae Davis, Alex Mack, and William Beatty are all on the board at #32 (which won't happen anyway) we won't take any of them?

You really think Curry won't be the first LB chosen?

I get that Kirwan has high-level access, but he's certainly been wrong in the past, and I'm going to predict that he'll be wrong in 2009--especially about Aaron Curry.

[steelreserve]

Can someone please tell me the last time the Steelers took a defensive lineman with a top pick? Hampton in 2001, and how long was it before that?

Fact is, you can get serviceable defensive linemen relatively cheaply in free agency compared to other positions, and you occasionally get a late-round steal in the draft. That seems to be our M.O. unless we luck out. My guess is the first two rounds are some combination of OL/DB/LB (yes, LB) and maybe a DL prospect or two in rounds 3-6.

[Steely McSmash]

Originally Posted by tony hipchest

... he has interviewed colbert plenty of times and every year at steelers training camp...

Maybe he knows that Colbert is a sucker for jumping out of the pool hype