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Old 06-09-2009, 09:18 AM   #1
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Default Economic Plan Far Too Optimistic...

And here it is. The proof in the pudding that many of us have been talking about. The initial plan was based on overly optimistic numbers that aren't based in reality. Obama is still sticking with his initial assessment that there will be a net gain of jobs created, but that prediction will fail as well. I think the biggest problem in the long-term will be how far-reaching these numbers will be in terms of the actual deficit. Since ALL the numbers he based his deficit on were unrealistic, it should naturally follow that the long-term debt will be higher, if not much higher than anticipated.

I'm sure this will be viewed as a panic piece by some of the less astute posters here, just like my initial predictions that turned out to be 100% accurate, but the continual buying of heads in the sand will not change the FACT that we are headed along a very dangerous path here...

http://www.ohio.com/news/nation/47283347.html

Obama reiterates plans for recovery As unemployment rate rises, administration admits economic forecasts were too optimistic
By Brett J. Blackledge
and Matt Apuzzo
Associated Press

Published on Tuesday, Jun 09, 2009
WASHINGTON: President Barack Obama assured the nation his recovery plan was on track Monday, scrambling to calm Americans unnerved by unemployment rates still persistently rising nearly four months after he signed the biggest economic stimulus in history.

Obama admitted his own dissatisfaction with the progress but said his administration would ramp up stimulus spending in the coming months. The White House acknowledged it has spent only $44 billion, or 5 percent, of the $787 billion stimulus, but that total has always been expected to rise sharply this summer.

''Now we're in a position to really accelerate,'' Obama said.
He also repeated an earlier promise to create or save 600,000 jobs by the end of the summer.
Neither the acceleration nor the jobs goal is new. Both represent a White House repackaging of promises and projects to blunt criticism that the effects haven't been worth the historic price tag. And the job estimate is so murky, it can never be verified.

The economy has shed 1.6 million jobs since the stimulus measure was signed in February, far overshadowing White House announcements estimating the effort has saved 150,000 jobs. Public opinion of Obama's handling of the economy has declined along with the jobs data.
For the first time, the administration admitted the economic forecasts it used to sell the stimulus were overly optimistic.

''At the time, our forecast seemed reasonable,'' Vice President Joe Biden's top economic adviser, Jared Bernstein, said Monday, explaining that the White House underestimated the scope of the recession. ''Now, looking back, it was clearly too optimistic.''

By now, according to earlier White House economic models, the nation's unemployment rate should be on the decline. The forecasts used to drum up support for the plan projected today's unemployment would be about 8 percent. Instead, it sits at 9.4 percent, the highest in more than 25 years.

Some analysts believe the White House is still not being realistic, that Obama will be lucky if any real job creation from his recovery effort is seen by the end of the year, let alone the employment explosion he predicts.

''I think these estimates are overly optimistic,'' said Arpitha Bykere, a senior analyst with RGE Monitor.

Obama spoke Monday about ''modest progress'' in the economy, citing fewer jobs lost last month than expected. He said he hopes to build on that in the months ahead with stimulus programs.
''We've done more than ever, faster than ever, more responsibly than ever, to get the gears of the economy moving again,'' he said.

But Obama acknowledged, ''I'm not satisfied. We've got more work to do.''
Americans apparently agree. Obama's disapproval rating on the economy has risen from 30 percent in February to 42 percent, according to a Gallup poll completed May 31. Sensing weakness on a signature issue of Obama's presidency, congressional Republicans are renewing their criticisms that the stimulus plan has not shown results, only mounting debt.
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Old 06-09-2009, 10:07 AM   #2
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Default Re: Economic Plan Far Too Optimistic...

Quote:
The economy has shed 1.6 million jobs since the stimulus measure was signed in February, far overshadowing White House announcements estimating the effort has saved 150,000 jobs.

Public opinion of Obama's handling of the economy has declined along with the jobs data.

For the first time, the administration admitted the economic forecasts it used to sell the stimulus were overly optimistic
.


This will probably be another short thread Revs unless flame baiting ensues, because let's face it, this is indefensible.
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Old 06-09-2009, 10:15 AM   #3
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Default Re: Economic Plan Far Too Optimistic...

Quite the disparity though, no? But it's almost impossible to actually dispute their claim...they merely need say "it could have been 1,750,000 jobs...see, we're making progress!"

By the end of summer, my guess is we'll have shed 2.4 million jobs or so, and they'll attempt to obfuscate that by saying it would have been 3 million but they "saved" 600k, and are right on track.

Super fuzzy math.

Again, my main concern is sustainable (or the quite possible unsustainable) debt. What will the final deficit numbers (and percentage of GDP) actually be? It's indisputable that it will be higher, almost certainly MUCH higher than Obama originally predicted, but just how bad is this gonna get?
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Old 06-09-2009, 10:30 AM   #4
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Default Re: Economic Plan Far Too Optimistic...

Its fuzzy math.

Its like this, someone in your life, woman usually, says "I got a great deal on this dress, it was listed at 800 bucks but I got it for 300! I saved 500 dollars"

No, you didn't save anything, you spent $300 bucks on a dress.

That's Obama's math. "We saved 150,000 jobs!"

No, you lost 1.5 million jobs.

Had he not pushed the Stimulus spending of 800 billion dollars and instead, Shredded Taxes, how many jobs would have been lost? Interesting Question.
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