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Old 06-18-2009, 05:47 PM   #1
triphahn
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Default MORE 2009 PREDICTIONS

Check this out. What if Sports runs computer simulations of all the games and spits out records. They have a decent track record. You can also check out the other divisions and team predictions.



http://www.whatifsports.com/beyondth...=2009NFLANORTH
Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5)
The 2008 Super Bowl champions look to go back-to-back and win their seventh ring. We will look at the playoffs later, but Pittsburgh has smooth sailing to a first round bye from this mediocre division. The Steelers average 21.2 points per game (#16 in the NFL) and only allow 14.1 points (#2) against a schedule featuring six games against teams who made the playoffs in 2008.

Absolute Record: 14-2

Most Significant Newcomer: Evander "Ziggy" Hood, DE - With very few players of significance coming or going, Hood is essentially the only option here. That being said, the pressure will definitely be on the rookie from Missouri starting in Week One. The Steelers will need him to contribute; yet will never rely on him to make big plays. At 6'3", 300 pounds, Hood has prototypical size for a 3-4 end who needs to be adept at stuffing the run and neutralizing blockers in passing situations. He is not spectacular in any facet of the game and rarely had to worry about rush containment as a tackle in the pass-happy Big 12. We are projecting 16 games played, 30 tackles and two sacks for Hood, which is probably right in line with Pittsburgh's expectations and about all they need from the first-year player.

Biggest Strength: Defense up the Middle - The Pittsburgh Steelers are built like a great defensive baseball team with the smart, solid players on the inside and the flashy, headline-grabbers on the outside. Nose tackle Casey Hampton may be one of the most valuable players in football. In a 3-4 defense, the nose tackle must take on multiple blockers to hold the line and open up opportunities for the inside linebackers (and/or at least one of the safeties) to stuff the run. Assuming this can done effectively, outside linebackers and corners can be more aggressive, which leads to sacks and turnovers. Pittsburgh does all of this beautifully and it starts with Hampton. Behind him at linebacker, James Farrior is as solid as it gets, while Lawrence Timmons looks like a star ready to breakout with additional playing time after the release of Larry Foote. Pittsburgh obviously also has the luxury of having two athletic, hard-hitting safeties who are both equally capable of making big tackles and creating turnovers.

Most Exploitable Weakness: Mistakes on Offense - Pittsburgh's defense was so good last year that it always kept the Steelers in games and masked many of the costly turnovers and mistakes made by the offense. Of all active quarterbacks, Ben Roethlisberger actually had the highest (worst) percentage of his passes intercepted in 2008. He was also sacked the second most times in the NFL (behind Matt Cassell of New England) last year. Typically a team built in this mold with a very strong defense and a rushing attack with several weapons that can stay fresh and take time off the clock needs a quarterback who plays smart and minimizes mistakes. Roethlisberger, on the other hand, favors the big play and often compromises his team's chances of winning with mistakes - only to seemingly win the game at the end by making plays "when it counts." In other words, the Steelers, with some luck, win in spite of their quarterback's antics. In the playoffs, Roethlisberger often slows the game down and plays smarter. Pittsburgh needs him to play that way more often or it may catch up with them.

Possible Fantasy Sleeper: Santonio Holmes, WR - In the 2008 post-season, Hines Ward was banged-up, making Holmes the go-to receiver for the Steelers' passing attack. A changing of the guard may have taken place in the Super Bowl when it was Holmes, not Ward who made the game-winning TD catch. Ward is still around and can be effective, but Holmes will be the guy in 2009. He is very much in the discussion for 1,000 receiving yards and a top 15 fantasy ranking amond wide receivers. Our projections have him at 1,000 yards even on 60 catches, both career highs.

Closest Game: Minnesota (Week 7) - The AFC North plays the AFC West and NFC North, meaning its teams will have a fairly easy schedule (Pittsburgh's is the easiest because they don't have to play themselves twice like everyone else in the division). The most likely loss on the schedule comes against the Vikings. Even though the Steelers will be at home, Minnesota is a team that can put together the few explosive plays necessary to beat Pittsburgh in a low-scoring game. And no, this game will not likely end in a tie. The teams are just that close that the projected scores round to the same value.

Fantasy Notables (fantasy rank at position in parentheses): Ben Roethlisberger (15) 3,070 yards, 18 TDs, 14 INTs; Willie Parker (29) 1,030 total yards, 7 TDs; Santonio Holmes (17) 60 receptions, 1,000 yards, 6 TDs; Hines Ward (22) 79 receptions, 982 yards, 6 TDs; Heath Miller (19) 39 receptions, 424 yards, 2 TDs; Jeff Reed (9) 34/35 XPs, 28/35 FGs

Projected 2009 Results:

Week Opponent Win% Avg Score
1 Tennessee Titans 67 21-14
2 @Chicago Bears 67 17-14
3 @Cincinnati Bengals 76 21-13
4 San Diego Chargers 62 23-18
5 @Detroit Lions 83 25-14
6 Cleveland Browns 95 31-7
7 Minnesota Vikings 45 18-18
9 @Denver Broncos 74 23-16
10 Cincinnati Bengals 67 21-14
11 @Kansas City Chiefs 70 18-14
12 @Baltimore Ravens 64 17-15
13 Oakland Raiders 70 23-15
14 @Cleveland Browns 85 23-12
15 Green Bay Packers 76 22-12
16 Baltimore Ravens 73 21-12
17 @Miami Dolphins 45 15-18
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Old 06-18-2009, 06:35 PM   #2
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Default Re: MORE 2009 PREDICTIONS

Interesting, any pretty much right on the money if you ask me.

I wonder why of all teams, they think we ought to lose to the Dolphins?
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Old 06-18-2009, 07:33 PM   #3
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Default Re: MORE 2009 PREDICTIONS

Quote:
Originally Posted by steelreserve View Post
Interesting, any pretty much right on the money if you ask me.

I wonder why of all teams, they think we ought to lose to the Dolphins?
Clinched home field throughout and resting
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Old 06-18-2009, 07:39 PM   #4
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Default Re: MORE 2009 PREDICTIONS

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Interesting, any pretty much right on the money if you ask me.

I wonder why of all teams, they think we ought to lose to the Dolphins?
Think they may be figuring in by last game the division and first round bye are wrapped up and starters are resting.
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Old 06-18-2009, 08:02 PM   #5
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Default Re: MORE 2009 PREDICTIONS

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Think they may be figuring in by last game the division and first round bye are wrapped up and starters are resting.
If we are 14-1 going into the Miami game, we lose with back-ups.
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Old 06-18-2009, 11:28 PM   #6
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Default Re: MORE 2009 PREDICTIONS

If Favre is the QB for the Vikings there is no way they will beat us on the road. Favre is prone to INTs with pressure and, oh boy, is he going to get pressure. The other QBs are stiffs as well. Sorry, but it is going to take more than Peterson to beat the Steelers. He is usually shut down when the Vikings play tough run defenses.
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Old 06-19-2009, 12:08 AM   #7
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Default Re: MORE 2009 PREDICTIONS

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Clinched home field throughout and resting
Makes sense. I guess I didn't give their simulation enough credit that it would take that into account.
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Old 06-19-2009, 03:38 AM   #8
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Default Re: MORE 2009 PREDICTIONS

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Makes sense. I guess I didn't give their simulation enough credit that it would take that into account.
That would be the only way the Dophins would beat us.
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Old 06-19-2009, 05:42 AM   #9
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Default Re: MORE 2009 PREDICTIONS

Hey, Bengals second in the division at 8-8 to 10-6, I'll take it.

P.S. if you want to waste away half of your day...go play around with the NFL Sim Matchup. http://www.whatifsports.com/NFL/default.asp
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Old 06-19-2009, 07:13 AM   #10
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Default Re: MORE 2009 PREDICTIONS

Peterson is a great RB but not against our D-FENSE!!!!!!!!! Tomlin takes his old team OUT!!!!
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