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Old 12-21-2009, 11:53 AM   #1
Atranox
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Default Playoff Picture

I know there's a few threads, but I figured I would solidify what must happen for the Steelers to make the playoffs. I'll try to make this short and to the point.

If you want to mess around with scenarios yourself:
http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/playoffscenario

First off, the Steelers MUST win out to finish 9-7. Assuming we win out, 4 of the following 5 things MUST happen as well:

1) Jaguars lose 1 game
- at New England
- vs Cleveland
- One loss will put the Jaguars at 8-8, where the Steelers will be ahead of them due to a better record. Otherwise if they win out and finish 9-7, they own the tiebreaker over the Steelers.

2) Jets lose 1 game
- at Indianapolis
- vs Cincinatti
- One loss will put the Jets at 8-8, where the Steelers will be ahead of them due to a better record. Otherwise if they win out and finish 9-7, they own the tiebreaker over the Steelers.

3) Ravens lose both games
- at Pittsburgh
- at Oakland
- Both losses will put the Ravens at 8-8, where the Steelers will be ahead of them due to a better record. If they Ravens only lose one and finish 9-7, they will own the tiebreaker against the Steelers for having a better divisonal record.

4) Broncos & Texans both lose 1 game **OR** Broncos lose both games
- Denver at Philadelphia, Houston at Miami
- Denver vs Kansas City, Houston vs New England
- One loss will put the Broncos at 9-7. This will force a 3-way tiebreaker which the Texans will win, unless the Texans lose one game. Alternatively, the Broncos can simply lose out.

5) Texans lose 1 game **OR** Titans win out
- Houston at Miami, Tennessee vs San Diego
- Houston vs New England, Tennessee at Seattle
- Losing one will put the Texans at 8-8. Otherwise if they win out & finish 9-7, they own the tiebreaker over the Steelers unless the Titans win out. If the Titans win out, it forces a 3-way tiebreaker in which the Steelers would win.

As for the rest of the teams in the hunt:

Titans
- The best they can finish is 9-7, even if they win out. We own the tiebreaker over them for beating them this year. They are no threat to our playoff hopes whatsoever. The Titans winning out will really help the Steelers, as it will force a 3-way tierbreaker between the Steelers, Titans, & Texans if all 3 teams win out. In this scenario, the Steelers get in over both teams.

Dolphins
- We play them in Week 17. If we win, the best they can finish is 8-8. They're really out of the playoff picture. It really helps us if they beat the Texans next week, as it eliminates Houston.

Last edited by Atranox; 12-21-2009 at 12:29 PM.
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Old 12-21-2009, 12:02 PM   #2
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Default Re: Playoff Picture

What if Houston wins out?
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Old 12-21-2009, 12:06 PM   #3
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Default Re: Playoff Picture

Then we want the Titans to win out also.
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Old 12-21-2009, 12:11 PM   #4
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Default Re: Playoff Picture

Sorry, I forgot about damn Houston. We do need them to lose one game as well.
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Old 12-21-2009, 12:14 PM   #5
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Default Re: Playoff Picture

Quote:
Originally Posted by Atranox View Post
Sorry, I forgot about damn Houston. We do need them to lose one game as well.
Hopefully, Miami will take care of them this weekend.
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Old 12-21-2009, 12:18 PM   #6
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Default Re: Playoff Picture

Alternatively, the Titans can simply win out, which would eliminate the Texans. It would force a 3-way tie, which the Steelers would win,
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Old 12-21-2009, 12:38 PM   #7
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Default Re: Playoff Picture

so... is that all that has to happen?

shouldnt be soo hard....


i hate leaving things to hope and destiny. all we can do is BELIEVE men.
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Old 12-21-2009, 02:20 PM   #8
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Default Re: Playoff Picture

Here's the simple version:
Steelers must wine no moar kan loose. This is critical.
PHI beats DEN. This is critical.
Other than that, so long as a few key upsets do not happen, we're in. The only help we need is for the chips to fall where expected.
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Old 12-21-2009, 02:25 PM   #9
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Default Re: Playoff Picture

Next week every team in our way has a truly legitimate chance of losing (most of the games have those teams on the road against top playoff contenders), no cream puff games for anyone.

Jags @ Pats

Jets @ Colts

Ravens @ Steelers

Broncos @ Eagles

Houston @ Miami
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Old 12-21-2009, 03:28 PM   #10
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Default Re: Playoff Picture

The odds are actually *for* us getting #6 seed so long as we win out.
The only help we need is for Philly to beat Denver, and they're favored to do that at home.

Beyond that, it's actually easier to list what we *don't* want to see happen (and the odds are against those scenarios as well).

* We don't want the Jags to beat New England *and* Cleveland. They probably won't.
* We don't want the Jets to beat Indy *and* Cincy. Most likely, Hell will have frozen over anyway.
* We don't want the Texans to beat Miami *and* New England (unlikely) unless the Titans beat San Diego *and* Seattle (likely), in which case we don't care.
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