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Old 02-16-2010, 10:04 PM   #11
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Default Re: The professor's amazing "climate change" retreat

Climate alarmists conjured a world where nothing was certain but death, taxes and catastrophic global warming. They used this presumed scientific certainty as a bludgeon against the skeptics they deemed "deniers" -- a word meant to have the noxious whiff of Holocaust denial.

All in the cause of hustling the world into a grand carbon-rationing scheme. Any questions about the evidence for the cataclysmic projections, any concerns about the costs and benefits were trumped by that fearsome scientific "consensus," which had "settled" the important questions.

A funny thing happened to this "consensus" on the way to its inevitable triumph, though: Its propagators have been forced to admit fallibility.

For the cause of genuine science, this is a small step forward; for the cause of climate alarmism, it's a giant leap backward. The rush to "save the planet" can't accommodate any doubt, or it loses the panicked momentum necessary for a retooling of modern economic life.

Phil Jones is the director of the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, a key "consensus" institution that has recently been caught up in an e-mail scandal revealing a mind-set of global-warming advocacy rather than dispassionate inquiry.

Asked by the BBC what it means when scientists say "the debate on climate change is over," the keeper of the flame sounded chastened. "I don't believe the vast majority of climate scientists think this," Jones said. "This is not my view. There is still much that needs to be undertaken to reduce uncertainties, not just for the future, but for the . . . past as well."

Jones discussed the highly contentious "medieval warming period." If global temperatures were warmer than today back in 800-1300 AD -- about 1,000 years before Henry Ford's assembly lines began spitting out cars -- it suggests that natural factors have a large hand in climate change, a concession that climate alarmists are loath to make.

Jones said we don't know if the warming in this period was global in extent since paleoclimatic records are sketchy. If it was, and if temperatures were higher than now, "then obviously the late 20th century warmth would not be unprecedented."

Jones also noted that there's been no statistically significant warming since 1995, although the cooling since 2002 hasn't been statistically significant, either.

All of this is like a cardinal of the Catholic Church saying the evidence for apostolic succession is still open to debate.

The other main organ of the climate "consensus" is the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. It won the Nobel Peace Prize for its 2007 report -- which turns out to have been so riddled with errors it could have been researched on Wikipedia.

It said Himalayan glaciers would melt by 2035, warned that global warming could reduce crop yields in Africa by 50 percent by 2020, and linked warming to the increased economic cost of natural disasters -- all nonsense.

These aren't random errors. As former head of the IPCC, the British scientist Robert Watson notes, "The mistakes all appear to have gone in the direction of making it seem like climate change is more serious by overstating the impact."

Too many creators and guardians of the "consensus" desperately wanted to believe in it. As self-proclaimed defenders of science, they should have brushed up on their Enlightenment. "Doubt is not a pleasant mental state," said Voltaire, "but certainty is a ridiculous one."

The latest revelations don't disprove the warming of the 20th century or mean that carbon emissions played no role. But by highlighting the uncertainty of the paleoclimatic data and the models on which alarmism has been built, they constitute a shattering blow to the case for radical, immediate action.

In The Boston Globe, MIT climate scientist Kerry Emanuel marshals a new argument for fighting warming: "We do not have the luxury of waiting for scientific certainty, which will never come." Really? That's not what we were told even a few months ago -- before climate alarmism acknowledged doubt.



Read more: http://www.nypost.com/p/news/opinion...#ixzz0flKr4u2e
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Old 02-16-2010, 10:58 PM   #12
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Default Re: The professor's amazing "climate change" retreat

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In The Boston Globe, MIT climate scientist Kerry Emanuel marshals a new argument for fighting warming: "We do not have the luxury of waiting for scientific certainty, which will never come." Really? That's not what we were told even a few months ago -- before climate alarmism acknowledged doubt.
....more proof that educated derelicts are a dime a dozen.
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Old 02-17-2010, 12:27 AM   #13
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Default Re: The professor's amazing "climate change" retreat

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....more proof that educated derelicts are a dime a dozen.
...and internet message board savants are one in a million (or so they think).
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Old 02-17-2010, 01:04 AM   #14
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Default Re: The professor's amazing "climate change" retreat

Get yer shovels ready, here comes a global warming blizzard.
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Old 02-17-2010, 01:42 AM   #15
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Default Re: The professor's amazing "climate change" retreat

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....more proof that educated derelicts are a dime a dozen.
This issue might be even more instructive than Evolution vs. Creationism (Oops! I meant to say Intelligent Design) in illustrating the chasm between how science actually works on the one hand, and how non-scientists think science works on the other.

Paradigm shifts are the rule, and indeed, certainty is never a luxury. Sometimes, we might have a theory like String Theory, which is almost certainly wrong (and we're watching it fall apart already), and yet its attendant studies are still producing "good science". As String Theory unravels (pun intended) we're gleaning knowledge of the universe. The fact that the necessary particles are not showing up where they should be is very instructive.

Then there are other theories which are still chock full of holes, but moving in the other direction: new data simply fills in the theory, reaffirming it rather than calling it into question. Evolution is just such a theory. It's still not a certainty, but functionally it is so, and we have yet to find a reason to doubt it. It must be painfully boring at this point in history to be forced to do studies supporting Evolution, just because there are still kooks (with a lot of clout) trying to counter it. Can you imagine still having to do studies trying to confirm heliocentrism, just because Muslims, Christians, Baha'i or someone else violently opposed it?

And then there is Global Warming, which is now where Evolution was eighty or ninety years ago. There is broad consensus, as is demonstrated in the sheer volume of work that is to be found in peer-reviewed scientific journals (as opposed to what Rush Limbaugh or some other angry fellow has to say about it on AM radio). But many of the details still have to be worked out.

However, even if the most dismal prediction of the most pessimistic "alarmist" were to come true, there would still be doubt. Doubt is the engine of the sciences, always. Anyone who claims otherwise doesn't know what they're talking about.

Economic interests are deciding this debate. Why is there no vocal anti-String Theory lobby? We're "wasting" our money (billions of dollars, actually) on a theory which we can already see is far off the mark, and which either contradicts scripture directly, or at a minimum is mentioned nowhere in the Bible. So where are the protesters?

It's simple: String Theory isn't a politically useful touchstone issue. It's neither culturally divisive, nor does it impact the bottom line of the fossil-fuel industries.
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Old 02-17-2010, 05:51 AM   #16
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Default Re: The professor's amazing "climate change" retreat

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Get yer shovels ready, here comes a global warming blizzard.
The global warming alarmists back fit the data to say whatever they need it to. We have a season with an extrodinary amount of hurricanes, they say get ready for it to be the norm.

We're still waiting.

We have several winters with a low snow total in the North east.Global warming!

We have a year with excessive snow. Global warming!


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Old 02-17-2010, 06:04 AM   #17
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Default Re: The professor's amazing "climate change" retreat

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...and internet message board savants are one in a million (or so they think).
Tony it wasn't that long ago ( geologically speaking) that the Sahara was lush with vegetation and the Medeterranian sea was a dessert.

I'm not denying that some degree of climate change is occuring all over the world. I'm just pointing out that it was happening long before modern man was leaving his "carbon imprint" on the soil.
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Old 02-17-2010, 06:51 AM   #18
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Default Re: The professor's amazing "climate change" retreat

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....more proof that educated derelicts are a dime a dozen.
...or that a lot of folks are "educated" far beyond their intelligence.
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Old 02-17-2010, 06:52 AM   #19
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Default Re: The professor's amazing "climate change" retreat

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And then there is Global Warming, which is now where Evolution was eighty or ninety years ago. There is broad consensus, as is demonstrated in the sheer volume of work that is to be found in peer-reviewed scientific journals (as opposed to what Rush Limbaugh or some other angry fellow has to say about it on AM radio). But many of the details still have to be worked out.

However, even if the most dismal prediction of the most pessimistic "alarmist" were to come true, there would still be doubt. Doubt is the engine of the sciences, always. Anyone who claims otherwise doesn't know what they're talking about.

Economic interests are deciding this debate.
But even the most adamant pro-global warming advocates have to be bothered by an obvious trend by the scientific community in "fudging" the numbers...admitting to lying about their data....and ignoring any data that would make the end result lean towards anything but their pre-determined results.

Seriously...all the revelations and confessions by those who have lied about their data should at the VERY LEAST make one look at the evidence all over again.
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Old 02-17-2010, 07:48 AM   #20
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Default Re: The professor's amazing "climate change" retreat

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...and internet message board savants are one in a million (or so they think).
Folks on the message board state their opinions. These Experts try to push their opinions off as facts. I think there is a big difference.
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