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Old 05-11-2010, 11:37 AM   #1
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Default Steeler's Average Prospect Rating and Comparison

The draft season never really ends for me...(sorry). I was just doing a statistical comparison of teams draft picks and came across something interesting and possibly may give us all reason to think that this draft class has a pretty good possibility of success.

I assigned each prospect a number using NFL.com's draft prospect rating....added up each teams prospects ...and divided by the number of prospects...For instance:

Round 1 Maurkice Pouncey.....8.4
Round 2 Jason Worilds ............6.2
Round 3 Emmanuel Sanders 7.8
Round 4 Thaddeus Gibson.....7.0
Round 5 Chris Scott..................5.5
Round 5 Crezdon Butler...........2.2
Round 5 Stevenson Sylvester 2.0
Round 6 Jonathan Dwyer........7.1
Round 6 Antonio Brown...........3.8
Round 7 Doug Worthington....5.8

Adding up the ratings it equals 55.8. Dividing that by 10 (the number of prospects) equals a Steeler draft prospect average rating of 5.5.

Now the amazing thing that I came across when doing this analysis is in the comparison do those 5 teams that recieved the highest draft grade by the experts. Here is how they rated out using the same breakdown:

Raiders....4.9
Panthers..5.0
Dolphins..5.0
Seattle......5.4
49ers........5.5


Those players with no draft grade were assigned a 2.0 (which in all actuality is very generous and raised the draft greade of these 5 teams).

Based on these numbers we actually had one of the better drafts this year. If anyone is interested I could do a statistical breakdown of the AFC North.

I understand that there are other variables to be considered...but still very interesting.
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Old 05-11-2010, 05:26 PM   #2
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Default Re: Steeler's Average Prospect Rating and Comparison

So I guess we reached for a backup project passing up bette players who actually filled pressing needs in the 2nd round then drafted a guy who didn't recieve a grade in the 5th.
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Old 05-11-2010, 06:16 PM   #3
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Default Re: Steeler's Average Prospect Rating and Comparison

great excersize LLT. thanks for the legwork. i followed NFL.com's draft tracker and these rankings during the draft for rounds 3-7. i definitely noted in the later rounds how the rankings would consistantly drop, yet alot of our picks were significantly higher than the majority in the same rounds (tells me we drafted for some value even if was a subjective value scoring system conjured up by prospect graders, and some pretty damn good analysts).

im curious... it seems our draft rating average may even be undervalued due to having so many late round and comp picks.

if you get rid of our 2 late 5ths and the late 6th = 47.8/7= 6.8 (thats pretty damn good just counting our primary picks and also considering we also got mcfadden and leftwich).

i see no reason NOT to have optomism with how this draft turned out. if you can, i wouldnt mind seeing the ravens, as i feel they found real good value, and the eagles and patriots (who always for some reason are the gold standard- and also had multiple picks).

Quote:
Originally Posted by St33lersguy View Post
So I guess we reached for a backup project passing up bette players who actually filled pressing needs in the 2nd round then drafted a guy who didn't recieve a grade in the 5th.


i guess 'we' missed the point of this entire thread, huh?
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Old 05-11-2010, 06:59 PM   #4
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Default Re: Steeler's Average Prospect Rating and Comparison

Thanks for posting LLT.


Quote:
Originally Posted by tony hipchest View Post

if you get rid of our 2 late 5ths and the late 6th = 47.8/7= 6.8 (thats pretty damn good just counting our primary picks and also considering we also got mcfadden and leftwich).
Neat Observation.

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tony hipchest

i see no reason NOT to have optomism with how this draft turned out
Agreed. Still a crap shoot imo but it appears we had a reasonably good draft.
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Old 05-11-2010, 07:03 PM   #5
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Default Re: Steeler's Average Prospect Rating and Comparison

Quote:
Originally Posted by tony hipchest View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by St33lersguy View Post
So I guess we reached for a backup project passing up bette players who actually filled pressing needs in the 2nd round then drafted a guy who didn't recieve a grade in the 5th.


i guess 'we' missed the point of this entire thread, huh?
No, more like he deliberately took the OP out of context to whine about the draft again.
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Old 05-11-2010, 07:21 PM   #6
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Default Re: Steeler's Average Prospect Rating and Comparison

im kinda suprised the draft whiners are still at it.

i think LLT and i both woulda been more than happy if the steelers made a philadelphia type move to go up and get earl thomas (as a potential back up for troy).

but the more and more i look at it, the more and more i am pleased and looking forward to how these guys are developed.

they seem to all have great character, quality of work effort, tons of upside, healthy resume, and genuine love for the game.
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Old 05-11-2010, 08:04 PM   #7
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Default Re: Steeler's Average Prospect Rating and Comparison

sylvester will be a stud....
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Old 05-12-2010, 04:12 AM   #8
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Default Re: Steeler's Average Prospect Rating and Comparison

Quote:
Originally Posted by tony hipchest View Post
im kinda suprised the draft whiners are still at it.

i think LLT and i both woulda been more than happy if the steelers made a philadelphia type move to go up and get earl thomas (as a potential back up for troy).

but the more and more i look at it, the more and more i am pleased and looking forward to how these guys are developed.

they seem to all have great character, quality of work effort, tons of upside, healthy resume, and genuine love for the game.
Agreed...I would have loved to have drafted Earl Thomas...due to his versatility in playing CB and backing up the safety position. But I am not dissapointed at all.

According to NFL.com...We went into this draft with needs at CB, DL,QB, RB & OL.

CB...Taken care of with the trade for Bryant McFadden and in the development of Keenan Lewis (injured last year so we still haven't seen his true worth)...also picked up a "project" CB in Crezdon Butler.

DL...Doug Worthington rated as a 4-6 round prospect and we got him cheap in the 7th. I am hoping he pans out gives us three young prospects at one of our "oldest" positions.

QB...Taken care of with the signing of Byron Leftwich.

RB....HUGE score at this position with the drafting of Jonanthan Dwyer.

OL...Upgraded early in the draft with Maurkice Pouncey ....Chris Scott is a "wait and see" prospect at OT.


I would had that we had an immediate need to add depth to the WR...OLB...and ILB positions and did so very well. Not to mention that many of these players will upgrade our ST's.
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Old 05-12-2010, 05:06 AM   #9
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Default Re: Steeler's Average Prospect Rating and Comparison

Quote:
Originally Posted by lamberts-lost-tooth View Post
The draft season never really ends for me...(sorry). I was just doing a statistical comparison of teams draft picks and came across something interesting and possibly may give us all reason to think that this draft class has a pretty good possibility of success.

I assigned each prospect a number using NFL.com's draft prospect rating....added up each teams prospects ...and divided by the number of prospects...For instance:

Round 1 Maurkice Pouncey.....8.4
Round 2 Jason Worilds ............6.2
Round 3 Emmanuel Sanders 7.8
Round 4 Thaddeus Gibson.....7.0
Round 5 Chris Scott..................5.5
Round 5 Crezdon Butler...........2.2
Round 5 Stevenson Sylvester 2.0
Round 6 Jonathan Dwyer........7.1
Round 6 Antonio Brown...........3.8
Round 7 Doug Worthington....5.8

Adding up the ratings it equals 55.8. Dividing that by 10 (the number of prospects) equals a Steeler draft prospect average rating of 5.5.

Now the amazing thing that I came across when doing this analysis is in the comparison do those 5 teams that recieved the highest draft grade by the experts. Here is how they rated out using the same breakdown:

Raiders....4.9
Panthers..5.0
Dolphins..5.0
Seattle......5.4
49ers........5.5


Those players with no draft grade were assigned a 2.0 (which in all actuality is very generous and raised the draft greade of these 5 teams).

Based on these numbers we actually had one of the better drafts this year. If anyone is interested I could do a statistical breakdown of the AFC North.

I understand that there are other variables to be considered...but still very interesting.
Great job LLT. Your statistical analysis got me thinking about how other grading services would treat our draft in comparison to the rest of the AFC North.

I used the Profootball Weekly draft guide ( courtesy of the guru of all SF draftgeeks)

1. Ravens
Kindle 6.35
Cody 5.65
DIckson 5.5
Pitta 5.7
Reed 5.37
Jones 5.35
Harewood 5.21

Average 5.597

2. Browns
Haden 6.25
Ward 5.5
Hardesty 5.4
McCoy 5.85
Lauvao 5.35
Asante 5.4
Mitchell 5.55
Geathers 5.25

Average 5.569

3. Bengals
Gresham 6.3
Dunlap 5.45
Shipley 5.4
Ghee 5.45
Atkins 5.39
Muckelroy 5.35
Hudson 4.6
Briscoe 5.23
Stephens 5.05

Average 5.357

4. Steelers
Pouncey 6.15
Worilds 5.5
Sanders 5.4
Gibson 5.4
Scott 5.15
Butler 5.2
Stevenson 4.9
Brown 5.2
Dwyer 5.39
Worthington 4.9

Average 5.319

Using the grading chart for players ratings and loosely using it to grade a teams overall grade

First round grade -- 5.95 or above
Second round grade -- 5.55 to 5.94
Third round grade -- 5.42 to 5.54
Fourth round grade -- 5.35 to 5.41
Fifth round grade -- 5.25 to 5.34
Sixth / seventh round grade -- 5.12 to 5.24

1. Ravens - 5.597 2nd round grade
2. Browns - 5.569 2nd round grade
3. Bengals - 5.357 4th round grade
4. Steelers - 5.319 5th round grade


Here is another perspective for everyone to consider.

Personally I like the results of your statistical analysis better LLT.
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Old 05-12-2010, 08:18 AM   #10
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Default Re: Steeler's Average Prospect Rating and Comparison

Quote:
Originally Posted by Aussie_steeler View Post
Great job LLT. Your statistical analysis got me thinking about how other grading services would treat our draft in comparison to the rest of the AFC North.

I used the Profootball Weekly draft guide ( courtesy of the guru of all SF draftgeeks)

1. Ravens
Kindle 6.35
Cody 5.65
DIckson 5.5
Pitta 5.7
Reed 5.37
Jones 5.35
Harewood 5.21

Average 5.597

2. Browns
Haden 6.25
Ward 5.5
Hardesty 5.4
McCoy 5.85
Lauvao 5.35
Asante 5.4
Mitchell 5.55
Geathers 5.25

Average 5.569

3. Bengals
Gresham 6.3
Dunlap 5.45
Shipley 5.4
Ghee 5.45
Atkins 5.39
Muckelroy 5.35
Hudson 4.6
Briscoe 5.23
Stephens 5.05

Average 5.357

4. Steelers
Pouncey 6.15
Worilds 5.5
Sanders 5.4
Gibson 5.4
Scott 5.15
Butler 5.2
Stevenson 4.9
Brown 5.2
Dwyer 5.39
Worthington 4.9

Average 5.319

Using the grading chart for players ratings and loosely using it to grade a teams overall grade

First round grade -- 5.95 or above
Second round grade -- 5.55 to 5.94
Third round grade -- 5.42 to 5.54
Fourth round grade -- 5.35 to 5.41
Fifth round grade -- 5.25 to 5.34
Sixth / seventh round grade -- 5.12 to 5.24

1. Ravens - 5.597 2nd round grade
2. Browns - 5.569 2nd round grade
3. Bengals - 5.357 4th round grade
4. Steelers - 5.319 5th round grade


Here is another perspective for everyone to consider.

Personally I like the results of your statistical analysis better LLT.
Very nice!!!

But take into consideration that we met ALL draft needs. Teams like the Ravens picked up two TE's and ignored their CB deficiency.

(Those are the variables that I was talking about.)


...and that reminds me....I have the updated PFW POST-draft info...if you want it.
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