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Old 12-13-2010, 04:08 PM   #1
steve314
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Default *Playoff Scenarios*

Before you flame me, let me explain....

As others have pointed out, it would be really nice if the Steelers could win the next 2 and have the last week off to rest as many starters as they want. But they would need to have the division title (and therefore the #2 seed) locked up going in. Of course the easy way is if BAL loses again, which could happen tonight or vs the Saints, but what if BAL wins out and ends up 12-4, and the Steelers also end up 12-4 after beating the Jets and Panthers but losing to the Browns because they rest people?

The Steelers and the Ravens would tie on head-to-head, division record at 4-2, common games at 10-4, and conference record at 9-3. (Correct me if I'm wrong here.)

Next tiebreaker is strength of victory, basically the combined winning percentage of the teams you've beaten during the year. PIT and BAL will have beaten a lot of the same teams (TB, CLE once, MIA, CIN once, BUF, NYJ, and CAR), so those cancel out.

Here are the four differences in this scenario:
PIT will have beaten ATL, TEN, CIN (2nd win), and OAK
while BAL will have beaten NO, HOU, CLE (2nd win), and DEN.

The tiebreaker is the combined winning percentage of the opponents.
So far, the 4 different beaten opponents for the Steelers have won 11 + 5 + 2 + 6 = 24
while BAL's have won 10 + 5 + 5 + 3 = 23. Very close. The Titans have not been helping here.

So, go Raiders! And Titans, Bengals, and Falcons....
The Raiders are undefeated in their division, and play DEN, IND, and KC--could win all of those.
The OAK/DEN game is a key one for this tiebreaker, as are CIN/CLE, TEN/HOU, and ATL/NO.

Hopefully the Ravens will blow one of their games and this will be irrelevant. If not, go Raiders?!
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Old 12-13-2010, 04:15 PM   #2
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Default Re: Go Raiders

In 2008, I believe the Steelers did NOT rest starters and played even though we locked up the #2 by then. If the Steelers don't have the #2 seed locked up by week 17, no way in HELL we rest against Cleveland because more than likely right now, the Steelers and Ravens could finish with the same record, and if they do, it'll go to Division record, and if we beat Cleveland, we get the nod so don't expect the Steelers to rest in Cleve unless we do indeed have #2 locked up safe and sound.
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Old 12-13-2010, 04:24 PM   #3
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Default Re: Go Raiders

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Originally Posted by StainlessStill View Post
In 2008, I believe the Steelers did NOT rest starters and played even though we locked up the #2 by then. If the Steelers don't have the #2 seed locked up by week 17, no way in HELL we rest against Cleveland because more than likely right now, the Steelers and Ravens could finish with the same record, and if they do, it'll go to Division record, and if we beat Cleveland, we get the nod so don't expect the Steelers to rest in Cleve unless we do indeed have #2 locked up safe and sound.
Yea and Ben got carted off
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Old 12-13-2010, 04:28 PM   #4
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Default Re: Go Raiders

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Yea and Ben got carted off
Yep, I was actually at that game and standing along the gates when going up to the seats. I remember thinking he was paralyzed and the whole stadium didn't know what was going on and in complete silence. Wasn't it a helmet to helmet? Go figure but I remember Leftwhich running for a T.D up the middle of the Stains defense, which felt like he was running in quick sand and in some kind of a slow motion time warp all in one play haha.
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Old 12-13-2010, 08:18 PM   #5
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Default Re: Go Raiders

You are correct. even though most simulations would have us holding the strength of victory tie-breaker, it would likely come down to who won other games on the last week of the season. With us playing at 1pm, we may not have the luxury of resting players. Even more disturbing could be that a couple of teams we'd like to win may be resting their starters. Like Atlanta against Carolina and Jacksonville against Houston.
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Old 12-13-2010, 08:45 PM   #6
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Default Re: Go Raiders

after looking at the schedules for the strength of victory tie-breaker, I'm 90% sure we would hold that tiebreaker at seasons end and think there is even a very good chance we could own it going into week 17.
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Old 12-13-2010, 08:53 PM   #7
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Default Re: Go Raiders

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after looking at the schedules for the strength of victory tie-breaker, I'm 90% sure we would hold that tiebreaker at seasons end and think there is even a very good chance we could own it going into week 17.
But the question that got everyone on edge is can we win it with this offense we have?
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Old 12-13-2010, 11:10 PM   #8
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Default Division clinching scenarios...

So, let me see if I get this right.

If we beat the Jets, and the Saints beat the Ravens next week, we would only have to win our game against Carolina to clinch the division, correct?
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Old 12-13-2010, 11:13 PM   #9
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Default Re: Division clinching scenarios...

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So, let me see if I get this right.

If we beat the Jets, and the Saints beat the Ravens next week, we would only have to win our game against Carolina to clinch the division, correct?
As long as we win 2 out of the remaining 3 games we win the North. If we somehow finish with the same record as Baltimore and if we beat Cleveland, we win the North with a better division record and possibly the #2 seed.
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Old 12-13-2010, 11:15 PM   #10
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Default Re: Division clinching scenarios...

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Originally Posted by StainlessStill View Post
As long as we win 2 out of the remaining 3 games we win the North. If we somehow finish with the same record as Baltimore and if we beat Cleveland, we win the North with a better division record and possibly the #2 seed.
Got it, thanks. I was hoping it wouldn't come down to the Cleveland game.
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