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Old 04-21-2006, 02:18 PM   #1
tony hipchest
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Default phoenix 500- who to watch/ who will win

saturday night racing makes for a boring sunday. get your picks in early. looks like the usual suspects will be the favorites to run up front all evening- kenseth and stewart (unless he "brake checks" jj again). the foliage brothers each won a race here last year with kurt getting the inaugural april night race and kyle winning the november race. the one roush booted kurt from. prior to that dale jr. had won the previous 2 and j. burton has always loved this track. i just glanced at the qualifying order and am hoping to catch practice, to add a little more breakdown and my picks.
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Old 04-21-2006, 02:23 PM   #2
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Default Re: phoenix 500- who to watch/ who will win

I'm going all "Young Guns" this week:

Johnson
Kyle Busch
Denny Hamlin
Scott Riggs

Although I may change Gordon for Johnson, since JG runs pretty strong on flat tracks.
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Old 04-21-2006, 02:52 PM   #3
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Default Re: phoenix 500- who to watch/ who will win

Ill say either of the Busch bro.
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Old 04-21-2006, 08:58 PM   #4
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Default Re: phoenix 500- who to watch/ who will win

9 of 12 p.i.r. races have been won by someone starting outside the top 10. whats that 3:1 odds that a winner comes from the top 10?

with these drivers:

1 5 Kyle Busch
2 16 Greg Biffle
3 20 Tony Stewart
4 17 Matt Kenseth
5 99 Carl Edwards
7 2 Kurt Busch
10 48 Jimmie Johnson

plus 3 rookies rounding out the top 10, if im in vegas, i like those odds.

while the 5, 48, & 25 were in the top 5 in happy hour the #24 was in 33rd. after gordon said the texas run was the barometer of the season and where they were, i will not be looking for him to win his 1st race here.

the only driver who has won here at night was k. bush but hes in a completely different ride. seems like ryan is too, but other than daytona, im looking for #12 to have its best run of the year. im not looking forward to the lavendar and black car he will be driving.

bobby labonte has another top 10 run and with some luck could crack the top 5 (dont mean he'll have some luck though.)

you can count this as a track that roush drivers have owned but not owned exclusively. nothing but bad luck should keep jr. out of the top 10

bold prediction? truex is the only rookie in the top 10. j. gordon will not win and finishes within 4 spots (+ or -) of r. gordon.

darkhorses? mcmurray, b. labonte, truex, and C. MEARS

1. kyle busch
2. kenseth
3. j. johnson
4. g. b iffle
5. b. labonte
6. r. newman

very difficult to leave jr., stewart, truex, k. busch, m. martin out of the potential winners. that in itself shows this could be a good and unpredictable race.
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Old 04-21-2006, 11:35 PM   #5
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Default Re: phoenix 500- who to watch/ who will win

finishers 1-13 were all cup regulars in fri nights busch race (except for d. green in 9th). of course 2 time champ k. harvick has been dominant (worst finish this year has been 11th) but i can now say penske owns the busch series. if he would only field a full time ride. kurt busch finishes 4th, in his 2nd series start ever. penske is batting about .500 in wins in busch since r. newman came aboard
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Old 04-21-2006, 11:37 PM   #6
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Default Re: phoenix 500- who to watch/ who will win

did you hear that they may switch Busch to pony style cars ala Mustang, Challenger, and Camaro?? I read an article on it but I'll have to look for it

Found... Link
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Old 04-21-2006, 11:55 PM   #7
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Default Re: phoenix 500- who to watch/ who will win

Quote:
Originally Posted by SteelerDan43
did you hear that they may switch Busch to pony style cars ala Mustang, Challenger, and Camaro?? I read an article on it but I'll have to look for it

Found... Link
that would be cool, as opposed to the c.o.t they are going to in nascar. i must admitt it took me about 5-6 years after nascar to really get into the busch series (m. martin, m. kenseth and dale jr. really drew me to it) but if they get rid of the cup regulars it will really hurt its draw and exposure. while k. harvick is leading the points, 3 cup rookie of the year candidates are 2nd-4th.

i can see where a part time team like penske, who can come in and pretty much dominate, could be disruptive, but it creates jobs and drivers, and it had been that way for a while. hendrick, roush, dei, childress, and now penske have all dominated it at one point or another. otherwise it wouldnt even be aired on fx (sometimes fox)
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Old 04-22-2006, 08:38 AM   #8
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Default Re: phoenix 500- who to watch/ who will win

Limitintg Busch races for cup drivers is an idea worth entertaining, but kicking them out will kill attendance.

Switching back to more stock cars would be truly awesome...but if they are just going to change the badges on the cars, what's the point?
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Old 04-22-2006, 10:00 AM   #9
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Default Re: phoenix 500- who to watch/ who will win

Tony Stewart
Jeff Gordon
Kasey Kahne
Kyle Busch
Scott Riggs
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Old 04-22-2006, 07:59 PM   #10
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Default Re: phoenix 500- who to watch/ who will win

damn, this its a tough race to call, but maybe very easy if you just look at the pointsleaders and the starting positions. ive changed my fantasy line-up 2-3 times (my 1st and notorious mistake)

i get the same feeling with kurt busch at bristol, then i hear his crew cheif r. mccauley misses the race with heart surgery. biffle seems ready to bust this slump and its almost impossible to bet against kenseth, stewart or johnson at any given track. while i wouldnt recomment putting your $$$ with d. waltrips mouth, i did like his pick of b. labonte, and this rookie class just seems coiled and ready to strike at a win (i dont think it happens tonight though) these are the races i anticipate the most, unless, of course the pole sitter turns them into a snoozefest. good thing phoenix is a pretty slippery track with several lines that provide 2 wide racing.
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