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Old 02-04-2011, 06:27 PM   #1
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Default Aaron Rodgers' Great Game Against Falcons Means Little This Week

Aaron Rodgers' Great Game Against Falcons Means Little This Week
By JJ Cooper
http://nfl.fanhouse.com/2011/01/21/a...tle-this-week/

Aaron Rodgers is clearly the hottest quarterback left in the playoffs. His 31-for-36, 366-yard, three-touchdown dissection of the Falcons' defense was nearly perfect. Rodgers' 136.8 quarterback rating against the Falcons is the 10th best in the playoffs since 2000.

And as you've likely heard all week, Rodgers' outstanding play is what makes the Packers the Vegas favorite to win the Super Bowl. It's easy to get fixated on Rodgers' outstanding game and conclude that he's just as likely to carve up the Bears, but looking at recent playoff history tells a different story.

In looking back over the past 10 years, 13 quarterbacks have posted a 130-plus quarterback rating with 20 or more attempts in a playoff game. The names are just as illustrious as you would expect: Peyton Manning (three times), Kurt Warner (twice), Tom Brady (twice) and Brett Favre (twice) are the only quarterbacks to post more than one 130-plus playoff game over the past decade.

As you would expect, those teams were 13-0 in those games -- it's hard to lose if your quarterback is nearly flawless. But the hot hand didn't usually carry over until the next week. Those same quarterbacks went 3-9 the following week. And in many cases, it was their poor play that was at least in part to blame.

You can blame it somewhat on regression to the mean (quarterbacks aren't going to put up back-to-back 130-plus QB ratings), but putting together a dominating game seems to be a hard act to follow. Over those 12 follow-up games, the same quarterbacks averaged a 75.16 quarterback rating, with more interceptions (18) than touchdowns (17). Over those 12 games, only three times did the quarterback put together another 100-plus quarterback rating. In comparison, there were six games with a rating of 70 or below.

Obviously a 12-game sample isn't overwhelming evidence, but it's worth noting that Manning followed up his five-touchdown, 377-yard, perfect 158.3 quarterback rating against the Broncos in 2005 by throwing for 238 yards, no touchdowns and an interception in a 20-3 loss to the Patriots the next week. Warner's five-touchdown, 381-yard game against the Packers in 2009 was exceptional, but the next week he threw for only 205 yards, no touchdowns and an interception in a 45-14 loss to the Saints.

This doesn't mean that Rodgers is going to be a disaster this week, but it is a pretty good reminder that cutting up the Falcons secondary means very little this week.

Here's a look at all of the follow-up games. Thanks to Pro Football Reference's Play Index for the stat sorting.

Name Date Opp Result C A PCT Yds TD Int Rate Y/A
Peyton Manning 2005-01-16 NE L 3-20 27 42 64.3% 238 0 1 69.3 5.67
Kurt Warner 2010-01-16 NO L 14-45 17 26 65.4% 205 0 1 73.4 7.88
Peyton Manning 2004-01-11 KC W 38-31 22 30 73.3% 304 3 0 138.7 10.13
Kurt Warner 2009-02-01 PIT L 23-27 31 43 72.1% 377 3 1 112.3 8.77
Chad Pennington 2003-01-12 OAK L 10-30 21 47 44.7% 183 1 2 44.9 3.89
Tom Brady 2008-01-20 SD W 21-12 22 33 66.7% 209 2 3 66.4 6.33
Peyton Manning 2004-01-18 NE L 14-24 23 47 48.9% 237 1 4 35.5 5.04
Brett Favre 2008-01-20 NYG L 20-23 19 35 54.3% 236 2 2 70.7 6.74
Daunte Culpepper 2005-01-16 PHI L 14-27 24 46 52.2% 316 1 2 63.3 6.87
Rich Gannon 2002-01-19 NE L 13-16 17 31 54.8% 159 1 0 79.9 5.13
Brett Favre 2010-01-24 NO L 28-31 28 46 60.9% 310 1 2 70 6.74
Tom Brady 2005-02-06 PHI W 24-21 23 33 69.7% 236 2 0 110.2 7.15

Read More: Packers NFL Analysis aaron+rodgers, kurt+warner, peyton+manning, tom+brady
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Old 02-04-2011, 06:38 PM   #2
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Default Re: Aaron Rodgers' Great Game Against Falcons Means Little This Week

Yes but according to ESPN, Aaron Rodgers is the greatest indoor QB in the history of indoor football and as such no other team has a chance against him.

Not only that, his 4 outstanding receivers are the greatest receivers in the history of organized football (and even better than that in a dome) and since Rodgers is so elusive (especially in a dome), no defense will be able to contain him so he will be able to throw at will.

And don't forget his accuracy which is the most spot-on in the history of the NFL (and even better than that in a dome), so any pass he throws will again be picture perfect and thus indefensible.

So I guess I'll just have to find a recording of SB XLIII or something to watch on Sunday because according to ESPN, this one's as good as over.

Did I mention it was in a dome?
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Old 02-04-2011, 07:25 PM   #3
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Default Re: Aaron Rodgers' Great Game Against Falcons Means Little This Week

I have learned from Packer fans around here, that both teams actually DO NOT play under the same conditions. While the Packer fans will get to play in a dome on Sunday, the Steelers will actually have to play in rainy, muddy, cold, windy conditions. It is not entirely clear how the Packers get to play under different weather conditions, but it is true indeed. The Packers will benefit greatly from this dome, as they are the highest powered offense in sports history.

The Steelers of course, in their lackluster conditions will have no chance at winning this Sunday. I was under the impression that since the game is being played in a dome this weekend that both teams would get the benefits of said dome, but alas, I was incorrect.
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Old 02-04-2011, 09:05 PM   #4
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Default Re: Aaron Rodgers' Great Game Against Falcons Means Little This Week

Quote:
Originally Posted by mcg24 View Post
I have learned from Packer fans around here, that both teams actually DO NOT play under the same conditions. While the Packer fans will get to play in a dome on Sunday, the Steelers will actually have to play in rainy, muddy, cold, windy conditions. It is not entirely clear how the Packers get to play under different weather conditions, but it is true indeed. The Packers will benefit greatly from this dome, as they are the highest powered offense in sports history.

The Steelers of course, in their lackluster conditions will have no chance at winning this Sunday. I was under the impression that since the game is being played in a dome this weekend that both teams would get the benefits of said dome, but alas, I was incorrect.
Guess you did not read the news - after James Harrison's media day observations Goodell issued a memo that the roof will be opened at Cowboys Stadium when Pittsburgh has the ball and the snow that has fallen this week will be trucked in and blown across the field
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Old 02-04-2011, 09:24 PM   #5
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Default Re: Aaron Rodgers' Great Game Against Falcons Means Little This Week

Quote:
Originally Posted by Atlanta Dan View Post
Guess you did not read the news - after James Harrison's media day observations Goodell issued a memo that the roof will be opened at Cowboys Stadium when Pittsburgh has the ball and the snow that has fallen this week will be trucked in and blown across the field
"... I wanna know WHO leaked these facts...



... then, fine James Harrison $50,000..."
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