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Old 04-27-2011, 07:22 PM   #1
A Son of Martha

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Default Steelers draft odds

NFL from the sidelines
After hobnobbing around the NFL in the press boxes and sidelines, sports reporter Dale Lolley will let you know the insider scoop. Dale can also be heard on Tuesday nights throughout the season from 7 to 9 p.m. on WBGG 970-AM. Follow him on Twitter at fdlolleyor.
Wednesday, April 27, 2011
Steelers draft odds

Here's my feeling on the odds on who will be the Steelers' top pick Thursday when the NFL draft begins:

Aaron Williams, DB, Texas (2:1) - The odds on favorite if he falls. Though Williams ran in the mid-4.5 range at the combine and looked stiff in the hips, he was much quicker, sub-4.4, at Texas' pro day. His size also gives him an edge over Miami's Brandon Harris. Williams could eventually shift to free safety to replace Ryan Clark.

Brandon Harris, CB, Miami (Fla.) (4:1) - There's a chance Williams won't be available when the Steelers pick. Harris is the draft's next best corner and has a lot of upside. At 5-9 1/2, he's lacking in ideal size, however.

Derek Sherrod, OT, Mississippi State (6:1) - Sherrod is the most likely of the linemen to fall, not counting Danny Watkins, who's just too damned old. He would tempt the Steelers despite their DB need.

Cameron Heyward, DE, Ohio State (6:1) - If Williams and Sherrod are gone, it could come down to Harris or Heyward. The defensive line isn't the glaring need that the secondary is.

Trade down (8:1) - There will be a number of teams looking to move up from the early to mid-second round if they don't take a QB in the first round. The Steelers could slide back 10 to 15 spots and still take a DB such as Virginia's Ras-I Dowling.

Mike Pouncey, G, Florida (10:1) - This would require a trade up, something the Steelers are open to. If he gets past the Giants at 19, Pouncey could be in play for the Steelers. Tampa coach Rahim Morris and Steelers coach Mike Tomlin are very close and the Bucs own the 20th pick.

Rahim Moore, S, UCLA (10:1) - A sleeper pick here. Moore's one of the best playmakers available and was coached by new Steelers defensive backs coach Carnell Lake. Some teams feel he's got the quickness to play corner and he's open to such a move. Like Williams, he ran better at his on-campus workout than he did at the combine.

posted by Dale Lolley @ 1:43 PM 7 Comments Links to this post
Final mock - Harris is the man

1. Carolina, Cam Newton, QB, Auburn - The Panthers pass on Marcell Dareus to take a possible franchise QB.

2. Denver, Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama - Denver’s run defense was atrocious in 2010.

3. Buffalo, Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M – The Bills could take QB Blaine Gabbert, but Miller is a much safer pick.

4. Cincinnati, A.J. Green, WR, Georgia – The Bengals are also a possibility for Gabbert, but hope the pick of Green can entice Carson Palmer to stick around.

5. Arizona, Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri – The Cards are pretty good at every position except QB. As can be seen from where they are drafting, that position is pretty important.

6. Cleveland, Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina – The Browns are shifting to a 4-3 and need edge pass rushers.

7. San Francisco, Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU – Houston may be willing to move up for Peterson, but San Francisco may not be able to pass him up.

8. Tennessee, Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn – The Titans’ defense wasn’t the same in 2010 without a motivated Albert Haynesworth in the middle.

9. Dallas, Tyron Smith, OT, USC – The Cowboys haven’t selected an offensive lineman in the first round since Jerry Jones has been running the show. Time for that to change.

10. Washington, Julio Jones, WR, Alabama – Jones is too good to pass up here. The Rams may be on the phone talking trade if he gets this close.

11. Houston, Aldon Smith, LB, Missouri – A premiere pass rusher for the Texans, who need to improve the defense to take the next step.

12. Minnesota, Jake Locker, QB, Washington – Had he come out in 2010, Locker may have been the first QB picked. He’s got plenty of risk, but the Vikings need help at the position.

13. Detroit, Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska – The Lions continue to improve their defense.

14. St. Louis, Corey Liuget, DT. Illinois – The Rams would have preferred a receiver, but settle for help on their defensive front.

15. Miami, Ryan Mallett, QB, Arkansas – Chad Henne, Tyler Thigpen and Chad Pennington aren’t getting it done.

16. Jacksvonille, Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue – The Jags have seemingly been in search of pass rushing help forever.

17. New England, J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin – Watt is the perfect fit for a 3-4 defense.

18. San Diego, Cameron Jordan, DE, California – Another solid 3-4 defensive end.

19. N.Y. Giants, Mike Pouncey, G, Florida – The Steelers were hoping Pouncey would slip to 20, where they may have been able to work a deal with Tampa Bay.

20. Tampa Bay, Da’Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson – Bowers falls because of a knee problem.

21. Kansas City, Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin – The Chiefs keep building on that running game.

22. Indianapolis, Athony Costanzo, OT, Boston College – The Colts have to try to keep Peyton Manning around as long as possible.

23. Philadelphia, Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado – The Eagles take a chance on the talented but troubled Smith.

24. New Orleans, Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa – A positive test for marijuana at the combine – ouch – but Clayborn can get after it.

25. Seattle, Nate Solder, OT, Colorado – The Hawks would love to move down for a QB, but can play Solder at guard for the time being.

26. Baltimore, Aaron Williams, CB/S, Texas – There’s no receiver worth taking this high and Williams can play CB until Ed Reed calls it quits.

27. Atlanta, Justin Houston, DE, Georgia – Another player who had a positive test at the combine for marijuana but can get after the QB.

28. New England, Akeem Ayers, OLB, UCLA – I expect this pick to be moved to a team wanting a QB. But Belechick can’t continue with Tully Banta Cain on the outside.

29. Chicago, Derek Sherrod, OT, Mississippi State – The Bears’ line was atrocious in 2010.

30. New York Jets, Phil Taylor, DT, Baylor – The Jets need a man in the middle.

31. Steelers, Brandon Harris, CB, Miami (Fla.) – Would have loved for Carimi or Sherrod to fall. But with top offensive line talent gone, the Steelers take the best corner available.

32. Green Bay, Cameron Heyward, DE, Ohio State – Heyward can be dominating at times and is a nice fit for a 3-4 end.
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Old 04-28-2011, 09:42 AM   #2
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Default Re: Steelers draft odds

like it
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Old 04-28-2011, 01:22 PM   #3
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Default Re: Steelers draft odds

I never put 2 and 2 together with the connection of Carnell Lake to Rahim Moore. Do the Steelers fully trust Lake's judgment yet, however? I guess we'll see.

I know many say Watkins is too old, but if the Steelers are confident he can play immediately, then we'll still potentially get 8+ years from him. He only has 4 years of wear and tear on him, as opposed to most prospects that have at least 6-8 years of wear and tear. And I think that has to be taken into consideration.
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