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Old 11-29-2011, 12:21 PM   #1
LayingTheWoodley56
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Default Odds that we win the division and the first seed by winning out

I believe that it is very possible that we win our remaining five games. I expect a sweep of the Browns every year (they haven't scored more than 21 points yet this season, should be two easy victories), there's no excuse for us to lose to the Rams, I definitely like us against the Bengals at Heinz this Sunday...one iffy game on the schedule is at the Niners, and it is still eminently winnable.

Baltimore, on the other hand, goes at Browns (win), vs. Colts (win), at Chargers (I know they suck, but possible loss?), vs. Browns (win), and finish at Cincy (could go either way.)

It looks to me like we have to win out and hope that they drop one, which is very possible. I know I have the games above marked as wins for them but these are the same guys who brought you losses to the Seahawks and Jaguars, and another near loss to AZ. Their definitely capable of a slip-up (as are we, clearly, as we almost saw the other night.) The question is, do we win out, and do we get lucky enough that they lose a game and we can slip past them at 13-3 to secure a first-round bye and home-field? I think it's maybe 60-40 in their favor, I wouldn't count us out of getting the #1 seed just yet.

Can't help but thinking back to Nov. 6...if we coulda just held them to 91 goddamn yards on that last drive, we'd be singing a different tune around here. As it is, we need them to falter to get a leg up.
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Old 11-29-2011, 12:31 PM   #2
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Default Re: Odds that we win the division and the first seed by winning out

I think if we beat the bengals we will run the table. the niners are a tad overrated and with that offense, won't get far into the playoffs. the cross-country trip had me worried at first, but we have an extra long week to prepare, playing a home game the thursday before. 3 extra days of prep time should help handle the trip.

tbh i don't know how SF has been winning so many games. I've been watching them recently and they don't look too impressive. Good defense, yes. but their offense is worse than ours was in the kordell stewart era. Shut down gore and contain ginn on special teams and they fold
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Old 11-29-2011, 03:25 PM   #3
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Default Re: Odds that we win the division and the first seed by winning out

I don't think we lose again, and I'm pretty sure the Raven will lose in Cincy. First seed should be ours. The Texans, by most accounts, will be dropping a few games. We'll see. Who knows? Yates could be the next Brady or Ben.
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Old 11-29-2011, 04:34 PM   #4
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Default Re: Odds that we win the division and the first seed by winning out

we're in no good position to win the #1 seed or even a bye.

the only team we currently hold a tie break against is the Patriots, but they're currently one of the hottest teams in the NFL and also have one of the easiest remaining schedules, they should finish 13-3 and thus are in excellent position for a bye.

Ravens hold the tie break over us as well. If we slip up just once, they have to slip up twice. I don't see that happening with their schedule, they only play Indy once ;) Really this is the worst part of it, because if the Ravens and Steelers both finish 13-3 (or even 12-4), we're suddenly a 5th seed wild card likely traveling to a barely above .500 AFC West team.

The Texans hold a tie break against us, so we have to count on them finishing with a worse record, something that seems likely considering their QB status, but still, again, if we slip up in one game, they have to slip up in at least 2, and while they do have at least 3 losable games, two of those are at home.


At any rate I'm really not worried about playoff positioning. We won XL as a 6th seed. The Giants stopped the Pats @ 18-1 as a 5th seed. GreenBay just beat us as a 6th seed...
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Old 11-29-2011, 04:44 PM   #5
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Default Re: Odds that we win the division and the first seed by winning out

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we're in no good position to win the #1 seed or even a bye.
Really? We have, basically, two halfway difficult games - Cincy (at home) and San Fran. We should be able to coast through the rest. The Ravens losing in Cincy is a probability, not a possibility. The Texans splitting the remainder of their games (if not tanking) is likely.
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Old 11-29-2011, 04:44 PM   #6
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Default Re: Odds that we win the division and the first seed by winning out

Who knows. I'm hopeful the Ravens lose, but they'll be favored in all of their remaining games. Probably a pickem at Cincy. We will likely be favored in all but San Fran. Probably a 1-3 point dog.
I think we both drop 1 game somewhere and finish 12-4 and get stuck with a 5 seed going out to Oakland to play a 9-7 Raiders team. That last Baltimore game in Pittsburgh looms large IMO. To think we couldn't hold a 4 point edge in the last 2 minutes still makes me sick.
If we had that game right now we'd be 9-2 and the Ravens and Bengals would both be 7-4 and the head to head tie-break would be gone. We'd be on easy street with a game up on the 1 seed to both the Pats and Texans and the tie-break with the Pats. And a Texans team going the rest of the way with a 3rd team QB.
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Old 11-29-2011, 05:21 PM   #7
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Default Re: Odds that we win the division and the first seed by winning out

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Who knows. I'm hopeful the Ravens lose, but they'll be favored in all of their remaining games. Probably a pickem at Cincy. We will likely be favored in all but San Fran. Probably a 1-3 point dog.
I think we both drop 1 game somewhere and finish 12-4 and get stuck with a 5 seed going out to Oakland to play a 9-7 Raiders team. That last Baltimore game in Pittsburgh looms large IMO. To think we couldn't hold a 4 point edge in the last 2 minutes still makes me sick.
If we had that game right now we'd be 9-2 and the Ravens and Bengals would both be 7-4 and the head to head tie-break would be gone. We'd be on easy street with a game up on the 1 seed to both the Pats and Texans and the tie-break with the Pats. And a Texans team going the rest of the way with a 3rd team QB.
And if Lincoln didn't go to the theater he might have lived to a ripe old age.

What's done is done and the only direction to go is forward. We have the talent to win out and that's all this team can control so that's all we need to worry about.
The rest is out of our control so all that's left is to concentrate on winning the next five games and see what happens after that.
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Old 11-29-2011, 06:00 PM   #8
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Default Re: Odds that we win the division and the first seed by winning out

If the Ravens slip up they are the biggest bunch of chokers ever. Can you imagine us beating them twice in a season and not winning the division? lol

That said, let's not blame this predicament on the defense - as you can see, they've bailed the team out plenty of times. Eventually, the offense has to do their job. If they don't, nothing else really matters and you can bet we would face the likes of GB again in the Super Bowl or the Saints so they need to find a way to get 7 in the red zone if we want #7, plain and simple.

Hindsight is always 20/20. Let's just focus on winning out and worry about who we face in the playoffs - @ home or on the road
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Old 11-29-2011, 07:28 PM   #9
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Default Re: Odds that we win the division and the first seed by winning out

If we can't run or score touchdowns, 1 in 10,000,000
If we fix those 2 area even money.
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Old 11-29-2011, 09:45 PM   #10
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Default Re: Odds that we win the division and the first seed by winning out

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I think if we beat the bengals we will run the table. the niners are a tad overrated and with that offense, won't get far into the playoffs. the cross-country trip had me worried at first, but we have an extra long week to prepare, playing a home game the thursday before. 3 extra days of prep time should help handle the trip.

tbh i don't know how SF has been winning so many games. I've been watching them recently and they don't look too impressive. Good defense, yes. but their offense is worse than ours was in the kordell stewart era. Shut down gore and contain ginn on special teams and they fold
A tad overrated? The Niners couldn't even muster a TD vs the Ratbirds. The reason the 49ers have 9 wins is their division. The Seaturkeys, Rams and Cards are hardly a tough assignment. Still the Steelers have to put a little more Offensive effort into that game than they did against the Chiefs.
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