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Old 08-08-2006, 05:45 PM   #11
AZ_Steeler
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Default Re: espn questioning bens skills

Quote:
Originally Posted by I-Want-Troy's-Hair
here's the article....

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/insid...26id%3d2542482

Roethlisberger among worst decision makers
By KC Joyner
ESPN Insider
Archive

Editor's note: This is an expanded version of a passage that appears in Scientific Football 2006.

I track more than 100 metrics in every NFL game, but the most misunderstood and controversial of these has to be the bad decision metric for quarterbacks. The bad decision metric is the method I use to track a quarterback's mistakes. Simply put, if the quarterback makes a decision with the ball that either could have led or did lead to a turnover, he is debited with a bad decision on the play.

The most common types of bad decisions are:

1. Forcing a pass into coverage
2. Staring at a receiver
3. Throwing the ball despite being tackled
4. Misreading a zone defense and not seeing a defender in the passing lane.

On each of these types of plays, the quarterback is noted as having made a bad decision. There are game situations that can force a quarterback to throw the ball into coverage (e.g., on fourth-and-30, Hail Mary plays, etc.) that will not be ruled as bad decisions.

If the quarterback's mistake did not lead to a turnover (e.g., a dropped interception, a recovered fumble, etc.), the mistake is given only one bad decision point. If the mistake led to a turnover, however, it is given two mistake points and also is subject to a graduating scale of points based on how damaging the turnover was (e.g., an additional point for an interception killing a scoring drive, another additional point if the interception led to the opponent's being set up in scoring position, etc.). The scale has an upper limit of five points for any single bad decision.

Bad decision rankings are based on two percentage bases. The first is the standard bad decision percentage. To calculate this, I take the number of bad decisions a quarterback generated and divide it by the total number of attempts. The second percentage rating is the weighted bad decision percentage. This is calculated by taking the number of bad decision points and dividing it by the total number of attempts.

So, which quarterbacks were the best and worst decision makers in the NFL in 2005 according to Scientific Football 2006? At the bottom, I'll list the top five and bottom five in each category. But first, I'll analyze some of the more interesting QBs and where they fell as good or bad decision makers.

Good decision makers:
? Tom Brady: The best decision maker in 2005 was Tom Brady, and it wasn't even a close race. Brady made only four bad decisions in 549 attempts, which equates to a ridiculously low 0.7 percent bad decision percentage. No other quarterback came close to falling under the 1 percent mark in that category. Brady also had only nine bad decision points, and his 1.6 percent weighted bad decision percentage was also easily the best.

? Drew Bledsoe: The perception of Bledsoe is that he makes a lot of mistakes, but the metrics tell a different story. Bledsoe did rank next to last in the NFL for most interceptions thrown last year (17), but he had just 10 bad decisions. His 1.9 percent bad decision rate was the fourth best in the league, and he was only 0.2 percentage points behind Peyton Manning in that category. Bledsoe did have 21 bad decision points (tied for 28th worst in that category), but his high number of pass attempts meant his weighted bad decision percentage barely missed making the top 10.

? Byron Leftwich: Leftwich often is lauded for a number of his positive traits but his good decision making isn't normally one of them. It should be, as Leftwich ranked in the top seven in both bad decision and weighted bad decision percentage. That he did this despite throwing the second-highest percentage of deep passes (nearly 20 percent of his pass attempts were deep) is a testament to his ability to be aggressive while simultaneously protecting the ball.

Bad decision makers:
? Aaron Brooks: Brooks had a number of problems last year, but his biggest by far was his decision making. His 4.9 percent bad decision percentage was the fifth worst in the NFL, and his weighted bad decision percentage was almost into double digits (9.8 percent). Those percentages were nearly twice as high as his 2004 totals, so he is certainly capable of performing better.

? Matt Hasselbeck: Hasselbeck had a fantastic season last year almost across the board, but his 17 bad decisions and 26 bad decision points were both tied for the seventh-highest total in their respective categories. The West Coast offense operated by the Seahawks is not a high-risk offense, and that makes Hasselbeck's performance in this metric a bit more perplexing.

? Brett Favre: It should come as no surprise that Favre had the highest number of bad decisions and bad decision points in 2005. To put his 53 bad decision points into perspective, one could add the totals of nearly any two other quarterbacks in the NFL last year and they still wouldn't surpass Favre's total. Favre's saving grace from a percentage perspective was his extremely high number of pass attempts (he was the only quarterback to top 600 attempts in 2005), but he still ranked in the bottom 10 in both bad decision percentage categories. Green Bay will need a dramatic improvement from Favre in this aspect of his game if the Packers want to be competitive in 2006.

? Ben Roethlisberger: Big Ben's 2005 season provides proof that you can win despite having high bad decision percentages. Roethlisberger ranked dead last in the bad decision percentage category and had the fifth-highest weighted bad decision percentage. He was able to get away with those elevated percentages because he had by far the highest yards per pass attempt in 2005 (9.1 yards, the only QB to top the 9-yard mark). If the YPA number drops at all in 2006, Roethlisberger's bad decision percentages will need to show improvement.

Here are the top and bottom five in each percentage category:
Is there any chance this dude is confusing Big Ben and Mad Maddox?? I just can't see him ranked with Favre and Brooks for the 05 season, that's just ridiculous!
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Old 08-08-2006, 05:53 PM   #12
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Default Re: espn questioning bens skills

I dunno, the metric seems to be a stretch, they're looking for a way to analyze something that hasn't been analyzed before. But it also looks like they are looking for qbs that are "Brady-like"; it looks like they said, "OK, Brady's great. Let's take what makes him great and see how the others compare." So naturally, Brady will be "the most Brady-like". Then everyone else follows.

Abstract football analysis is still in its infancy, and so much of what happens on the field is interdependent on everything else that I'm not sure it can be teased out the way they're trying to do. Obviously Brady's great... but is Brady's way the only way? Just as obviously, no (see the Bradshaw thread). Brady's great for the Pats. Big Ben's great for the Steelers.


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Old 08-08-2006, 06:23 PM   #13
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Default Re: espn questioning bens skills

Quote:
Originally Posted by Haiku_Dirtt
He led all starting QBs in yards per attempt with an 8.89 yard average (Peyton Manning is second with an 8.74 yard average).

All that crap Manning does before the snap certainly has an effect on ESPN analysts but not on the facts...numbers don't lie.
Manning looks like an insane guy before the snap. He positively drives me crazy which makes it even sweeter when his butt gets sacked.
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Old 08-08-2006, 06:38 PM   #14
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Default Re: espn questioning bens skills

Quote:
Originally Posted by AZ_Steeler
The "analysts" want to see him fail and aren't ready to tout him has the next greatest thing because of their current "Wonder Boy" in Boston. Ben continues to defy all odds so they are setting up the failure so IF it ever does happen they can take the credit for it. For example, the sophomore slump... unless you want to call his performance in the SB his slump for the year, that's fine he has a big fat ring on his finger.

I'm surprised they haven't started talking about a Junior Slump (if there is such a thing). The bottom line is Ben has been on top of his game from day one, (I still think if he had a few more minutes in the Baltimore game in 04 the Steelers would have been 16-0) look at his passer rating, YPA, Comp %, TD to INT ratio... The list goes go on... I will take a consistent QB who puts up solid numbers year after year and knows how to get the ball down field when it counts. It's not all about 4500 yards a season and 30 TD's, what does Manning have to show it... his name in the record books? Ben has been simply amazing and I don't see him slowing down one bit. Let the "analyst" talk about him, it adds fuel to the fire!

On a side note, has anyone noticed that it always seems like when Ben is in the game and the Steelers are trailing he finds a way to get some points on the board? I would be curious to see how many times the Steelers have scored, when trailing and after the opposing team has put points on the board...
ben played about 5 quarters vs. baltimore in his rookie season. injuries to himself and t. maddox prevented him playing a full game. in those 5+ quarters he threw for over 400 yds and 4 td's (he did throw some int's too- 3 i think) not bad for a rookie.
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Old 08-08-2006, 07:08 PM   #15
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Default Re: espn questioning bens skills

ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ.


I guess Ben will literally have to go undefeated in a season to get any serious props. Even then they'll find some reason to say Brady's better. For some reason most of the mainstream press REFUSES to admit that the Steelers AND Ben are legit! Amazing!

Last edited by bratsinmybelly; 08-08-2006 at 07:19 PM.
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Old 08-08-2006, 08:00 PM   #16
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Default Re: espn questioning bens skills

Quote:
Brady made only four bad decisions in 549 attempts, which equates to a ridiculously low 0.7 percent bad decision percentage.
I was suspicious of the article from the start, and this statement pretty much confirmed it. I stopped reading after that sentence. I'm not knocking Brady, and he may very well be the "best" in the league right now. But claiming that he made only 4 bad decisions last year is beyond ridiculous.

Here's some stats that can't be argued, and actually matter when it comes to winning and losing:

http://coldhardfootballfacts.com/Article.php?Page=889
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Old 08-08-2006, 08:06 PM   #17
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Default Re: espn questioning bens skills

Boy, I hope Ben keeps up the bad skills and decision makers. Imagine what his record would be if he didn't suck and wasn't so stupid.
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Old 08-08-2006, 08:07 PM   #18
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Default Re: espn questioning bens skills

I think of espn as the national enquire of sports. Thankfully I can come here to get real Steeler news
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Old 08-08-2006, 08:33 PM   #19
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Default Re: espn questioning bens skills

Quote:
Originally Posted by MattsMe
I was suspicious of the article from the start, and this statement pretty much confirmed it. I stopped reading after that sentence. I'm not knocking Brady, and he may very well be the "best" in the league right now. But claiming that he made only 4 bad decisions last year is beyond ridiculous.

Here's some stats that can't be argued, and actually matter when it comes to winning and losing:

http://coldhardfootballfacts.com/Article.php?Page=889
Wow! 4 bad desicions all year long... that means that 10 of his 14 INT's were not bad decisions
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Old 08-08-2006, 09:28 PM   #20
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Default Re: espn questioning bens skills

Quote:
Originally Posted by AZ_Steeler
Wow! 4 bad desicions all year long... that means that 10 of his 14 INT's were not bad decisions
They don't know what they are talking about, Tom Brady has never made a bad decision let alone 4 in an entire season.
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