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Old 01-07-2013, 11:54 AM   #1
wwhickok
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Default How legit is Colbert

Before you rush to a quick answer take a moment and really think about our current roster. There have been times in the past where I feel like I’ve ‘rushed to conclusions’ about wanting to get rid of Kevin Colbert, but then gone on to believe that was foolishness. However, this time, it feels different. I am as satisfied as we as Steeler fans can be in regards to our 8-8 season. We’ve had a lot of injuries, we’ve had a lot of setbacks, and quite frankly, our team just hasn’t performed. But I have to really begin questioning some of the picks Colbert has made. I’m not yet ready to slap the ‘bust’ label on Ziggy Hood, Cameron Hayward, Steven Sylvester, Jason Worilds, Curtis Brown, & Ryan Mundy and the jury is definitely still out on Ta’amu, but let’s face it, there are a lot of guys no longer on the roster, such as Limas Sweed and Dennis Dixon that didn’t pan out.

Heyward and Hood have not been productive this season, Curtis Brown, a guy I really still think has some potential, doesn’t seem to have near the potential I thought he did when he was drafted (I was ecstatic that we drafted him). Ryan Mundy is mediocre at best, a career backup, and while I said I wasn’t ready to call Sylvester or Worilds a bust..I don’t think they have done anything that I’d say is enough for new contracts. Then you get into guys like Santonio Holmes, Plaxico Burress, even Rashard Mendenhall, who have not been kept due to character issues or have fallen flat on their face in terms of production. Woodley even has people questioning his validity right now; I think it’s a weight issue, he looked fat to me this season to be honest. I like, don’t love, Cortez Allen and Kellen Lewis. I think they did a real nice job but I also think it wouldn’t be too difficult to draft a guy that could start over both of them, if drafted in the first round.

There have definitely been ‘gems’; Heath Miller, Troy Polamalu, Ben Roethlisberger, Ike Taylor, Maurkice Pouncey, Lawrence Timmons, but the jury is also still out on DeCastro, Adams, Redman, and Dwyer. I do believe Adams and DeCastro will pan out and I hope Redman and/or Dwyer do but I can’t say I’m greatly confident. The last TE we drafted (prior to Paulson) was Spaethe…how’d that work out? We drafted a Punter that didn’t work out, we’ve drafted numerous offensive linemen in deeper rounds and very few of them are anywhere to be found.

My point is that it’s easier to find guys who Colbert completely missed on than it is to find guys that we can say, honestly, he really hit the nail on the head with at this point. Do you think that perhaps the time is growing near where we have to get rid of Kevin Colbert and bring in ‘Fresh Blood’?
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Old 01-07-2013, 12:08 PM   #2
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Default Re: How legit is Colbert

You have to look at the odds. If you go into the draft counting on your 1st round pick to be a starter by the end of season 1, and your 2nd rounder to start during season 2, then you made out well. 3rd round and later are just warm bodies half the time. There are charts out there with odds, but after like the 4th you're looking at a huge percentage favoring a bust.

Of those guys you mention...Hood, Heyward...they would likely be starting right now on almost any other team in the league. Guys like Spaeth, Dwyer, and Redman...later round/undrafted guys, and they've performed about as expected...career backups. Sure, you can grab punters and kickers in late rounds and get a star, but if you want a guy you can bet the farm on to start day 1 at a skill position, you better be high in the 1st round.
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Old 01-07-2013, 01:58 PM   #3
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Default Re: How legit is Colbert

Do you really think the draft is all the picks of Kevin Colbert?? Not on the Scouts that do all the background workup and interviews with prospect highschool, college coaches. Not the Steeler position coaches that goto the Senior Bowl, Shrine Game, Personal workouts, Pro days?? Not on the head coach and coordinators that advocate for certain players that can help in their system?

Tons of work is done before anybody gets selected on draft day. That being said, Kevin Colbert and the staff he works with is one of the NFL's top 10 or better when it comes to building thru the draft.
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Old 01-07-2013, 02:22 PM   #4
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Default Re: How legit is Colbert

Steelers havent had a bust in the first round since Troy Edwards in 1999. Id say he has done pretty well.
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Old 01-07-2013, 02:26 PM   #5
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Default Re: How legit is Colbert

To answer you Jackson, thats a fair question/statement. I agree with it 100%. As for thr "no bust since troy edwards" the jury imo is still out on heywards and hood. But I was posing a question, not necessarily speakimg to my opinion however i do think something needs to change. Perhaps that something is our 'scouting dept'.
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Old 01-07-2013, 02:29 PM   #6
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Default Re: How legit is Colbert

I completely understand what you are saying - and I applaud you for your high expectations as any Steeler fan would have

As a Steeler fan, and based on recent history - I think it is reasonable to expect someone selected within the first 3 rounds to contribute within the first couple of seasons. Of course, there are a ton of variables to factor in along with that general expectation.

What position are they being drafted for v. what the team needs are and who is already at that position and what is already being produced at that position? Is this a draft pick for an immediate need, long term need that you have confidence will grow into what you want them to be over time, or someone you know needs a little work on and then should be ready to step up or a project guy that is a bit of a gamble?

Then, there are other variables to throw in when measuring player versus player, and what you wanted to see more to fit your need. OR - do you throw a lot of this out the window when a high prospect falls in your lap and is too good to pass up regardless of their position and the situation you already have at it? and is available without giving too much in return (trading up or down) ?

You hope your Rd 1 pick can contribute right away. You have a 50/50 shot of getting Rd 1 capabilities in the 2nd round, have someone who might just need some time in your system or tweaking in Rd 3 and so on or, you have some bottom of the barrel picks left over, don't expect much, and might take a risk on something you don't really need as a pet project in the later rounds. Or, maybe you are feeling pretty good about taking a gamble, and like what you saw out of someone for your team, regardless of what other people think.

A SHIT TON OF THOUGHT.
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Old 01-07-2013, 02:36 PM   #7
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Default Re: How legit is Colbert

I like it steelfury, good post and I definitely can't disagree with you.
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Old 01-07-2013, 02:41 PM   #8
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Default Re: How legit is Colbert

He's good at what he does.Very good at first round picks. If you look at his record compared to others, you'll see that he's done his job by and large. That's not to say that I agree with every decision he's made- Worillds over Sean Lee still grates me but sometimes he knocks it out of the park e.g. Antonio Brown and it looks like Cortez Allen could be someone like that too. He's also good at finding UDFAs. Willie Parker, James Harrison.
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Old 01-07-2013, 03:14 PM   #9
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Default Re: How legit is Colbert

My friends and I have always joked that Colbert is good in R1 and then with undrafted rookie free agents... but, terrible in R2-R7. Ergo, we have often suggested that Colbert tradeh his R2-R7 picks for an extra R1 pick.

BUT... recently, he has done really well in R2-R7, but only "decently" in R1.

2003 - 2006
Troy, BB, Heath, & Santonio were home runs... four years in a row. The rest of those drafts were horrible, with one great pick sprinkled in the later rounds of each draft: Ike Taylor in R4, Max Starks in R3, Chris Kemoeatu in R5, & Willie Colon in R4. That is it. Two players from each of those drafts... albeit, two rock-solid players.

2007
Then, there was the 2007 draft. Ugh. Spinny is not a bust, but he is not Ray Rice either. And, the rest of that draft was horrid (even though, at the time, it looked extremely promising).

2008-2011
Like I said, he has done decently with his mid-round picks... but, only one home run in the first round: Pouncey.

Timmons, Hood, Heyward are not the greatest... but, they are not the worst picks. With Timmons, missing out on Revis (or Willis) taints that pick, because honestly, no one after him was much better. Hood has been good, but he is compared with Aaron Smith. And, Heyward has not started yet (the jury's still out).

What these drafts had was a lot of really good mid-round picks: Mike Wallace, Keenan Lewis, Jason Worilds, Emmanual Sanders, Stevenosn Sylvester, Jonothan Dwyer, Antonio Brown, Marcus Gilbert, Cortez Allen, Chris Carter, Baron Batch.

[Note: 2012... too early to tell.]

The 2002 draft was mentioned (on NFL Films) as ebing the draft that set up Pittsburgh's 2005 SuperBowl victory: Antwaan Randle-El, Chris Hope, Larry Foote, & Brett Keisel.

I like the 2010 & the 2011 (and IMO, the 2012) drafts as being just as good.

SUMMATION:
Considering the strength of the 2010, 2011, & 2012 drafts, I would say that the Steelers are about to get young & good... and go on a run of three straight SuperBowls.

People will say that that is blind Homer-ism, but look at this roster on offense: they are loaded with WRs, have a young O-line that could be "special" in a year or so, and they have BB. The defense is & always will be dominant (Cortez & Keenan are going to be a tandem to reckon with). AND, the rest of the AFC is weakening. I look at the list of players from the past three drafts, and I honestly see a juggernaut ebing formed in Pittsburgh.
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Old 01-07-2013, 03:18 PM   #10
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Default Re: How legit is Colbert

Quote:
Originally Posted by teegre View Post
My friends and I have always joked that Colbert is good in R1 and then with undrafted rookie free agents... but, terrible in R2-R7. Ergo, we have often suggested that Colbert tradeh his R2-R7 picks for an extra R1 pick.

BUT... recently, he has done really well in R2-R7, but only "decently" in R1.

2003 - 2006
Troy, BB, Heath, & Santonio were home runs... four years in a row. The rest of those drafts were horrible, with one great pick sprinkled in the later rounds of each draft: Ike Taylor in R4, Max Starks in R3, Chris Kemoeatu in R5, & Willie Colon in R4. That is it. Two players from each of those drafts... albeit, two rock-solid players.

2007
Then, there was the 2007 draft. Ugh. Spinny is not a bust, but he is not Ray Rice either. And, the rest of that draft was horrid (even though, at the time, it looked extremely promising).

2008-2011
Like I said, he has done decently with his mid-round picks... but, only one home run in the first round: Pouncey.

Timmons, Hood, Heyward are not the greatest... but, they are not the worst picks. With Timmons, missing out on Revis (or Willis) taints that pick, because honestly, no one after him was much better. Hood has been good, but he is compared with Aaron Smith. And, Heyward has not started yet (the jury's still out).

What these drafts had was a lot of really good mid-round picks: Mike Wallace, Keenan Lewis, Jason Worilds, Emmanual Sanders, Stevenosn Sylvester, Jonothan Dwyer, Antonio Brown, Marcus Gilbert, Cortez Allen, Chris Carter, Baron Batch.

[Note: 2012... too early to tell.]

The 2002 draft was mentioned (on NFL Films) as ebing the draft that set up Pittsburgh's 2005 SuperBowl victory: Antwaan Randle-El, Chris Hope, Larry Foote, & Brett Keisel.

I like the 2010 & the 2011 (and IMO, the 2012) drafts as being just as good.

SUMMATION:
Considering the strength of the 2010, 2011, & 2012 drafts, I would say that the Steelers are about to get young & good... and go on a run of three straight SuperBowls.

People will say that that is blind Homer-ism, but look at this roster on offense: they are loaded with WRs, have a young O-line that could be "special" in a year or so, and they have BB. The defense is & always will be dominant (Cortez & Keenan are going to be a tandem to reckon with). AND, the rest of the AFC is weakening. I look at the list of players from the past three drafts, and I honestly see a juggernaut ebing formed in Pittsburgh.
I will mark you down as the first person to say we might have a juggernaut on our hands- I hope you're right!
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Insanity or In-sahn-naha-teh
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meaning "severe personnel problems".
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